BrewHawk
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So after watching a few of your games and pondering our matchup, I wanted to pass on some thoughts about what I see happening come gametime in Jacksonville.
I'll keep this in bullet points to try to keep the reading-challenged from getting intimidated by the excessive verbiage
- If Iowa wins the coin-toss, they will take the ball. This has often lead to a three-and-out and then an ineffective punt which gives the opponent great starting field position.
- Iowa historically has had a problem defending mobile QBs. Tennessee's offense looks a whole lot like Minnesota's, which doesn't bode well after the ass-whipping they gave us.
- Dobbs' running ability really worries me. I think he could have his biggest plays when dropping back to pass and then taking off on the run after Iowa's LBs have made their drops. QB draws likely will be effective for the same reason. I'd like to see more blitzing to force the action, but not sure this will happen due to the risk of giving up the big play.
- When facing mobile QBs, the DL typically plays to fill lanes and keep the LBs free rather than forcing the issue with penetration. This was seen vs. Iowa St. and was a large part of the reason they beat us. Very conservative and had to be frustrating for the LBs and DBs as they were left covering receivers for way too long.
- Iowa replaced both the OC and DC three years ago with multiple position coaching changes as well. This transition has not gone smoothly whatsoever. The Hawks had returning starters at QB, RB, WR and 3/5 OL. For whatever reason, the offense really stunk earlier in the year. We have a Texas OC without the Texas skill-player talent.
- Typically Iowa's DL leads the way in the success of the defense. The lack of an edge rusher and three brand new LBs have been a lot to overcome. This unit has played better and better as the season has gone on, but has been placed in tough positions due to poor STs play and lack of offensive proficiency.
- Iowa has been at their best when they go back to the previous OCs schemes with downhill running coupled with play-action passing. The horizontal passing game has failed miserably mostly due to lack of quickness on the perimeter and the ability of defenses to man up on the outside and load up the box.
- QB Jake Rudock has been coached to be risk-averse and won't throw to a receiver unless he's wide open. Because of our receivers not being wide open much, the passing game is also very inconsistent. We came out vs. Wisconsin very conservative and trailed by 16 before coming out of their proverbial collective shells to open up the passing game with great success.
- We run Mark Weisman, a 240 lb. tailback on outside zone stretches with alarming regularity. He's a strong runner with decent speed for his size, but has no change of direction ability and misses cutback lanes over and over. Behind him on the depth chart is some quickness, but they don't get to play enough.
- Tevaun Smith is a darn good receiver who isn't thrown to nearly enough. Iowa's offense lets the defense dictate where the ball goes rather than dictating to the defense what they need to cover. Everything is done with sight-reads on the LOS, which forces the QB and receivers to be on the same page or the play fails.
- Special teams had been a strength in the past and won Iowa several games along the way. This year, punt coverage and the return game has been a liability. FG kicking has improved as the season has gone on. PK has a very strong leg and is fourth in the nation in touchback percentage.
- To win this game Iowa will need to avoid multiple turnovers, keep the penalty count down, stay on schedule and in front of the chains, have some semblance of a running game and avoid giving up the big play both defensively and on special teams.
- If Iowa doesn't do the above and Tennessee plays a relatively clean game I don't think we have a chance.
- My unbiased opinion of your team is very optimistic and I think you have great things ahead of you, starting as early as next year by winning the SEC East. Dobbs, Hurd, Sutton and Barnett are outstanding. Getting your OL healthy will probably be your biggest key to success.
- I'm as optimistic as they come regarding the Hawkeyes, but I just don't know which team is going to show up. If the Hawks are ready to play and do the above, which is entirely possible, I could see Iowa winning by 2-3 TDs. My confidence level for this is about 10%.
- Ferentz typically has Iowa ready to go for bowl games and scouts the opponents very well. I'm just not sure we have an answer for Dobbs. I don't see a blowout happening and am more confident about a convincing Iowa win over us getting drubbed. The real answer probably rests somewhere in the middle, so I will say Tennessee wins 24-19. Iowa has had trouble scoring TDs in the red zone with alarming regularity and has to settle for four FGs and only one TD.
I'll tell you what I'd like to see Iowa do if I were OC vs. what I think they'll do in a later post.
I'll keep this in bullet points to try to keep the reading-challenged from getting intimidated by the excessive verbiage
- If Iowa wins the coin-toss, they will take the ball. This has often lead to a three-and-out and then an ineffective punt which gives the opponent great starting field position.
- Iowa historically has had a problem defending mobile QBs. Tennessee's offense looks a whole lot like Minnesota's, which doesn't bode well after the ass-whipping they gave us.
- Dobbs' running ability really worries me. I think he could have his biggest plays when dropping back to pass and then taking off on the run after Iowa's LBs have made their drops. QB draws likely will be effective for the same reason. I'd like to see more blitzing to force the action, but not sure this will happen due to the risk of giving up the big play.
- When facing mobile QBs, the DL typically plays to fill lanes and keep the LBs free rather than forcing the issue with penetration. This was seen vs. Iowa St. and was a large part of the reason they beat us. Very conservative and had to be frustrating for the LBs and DBs as they were left covering receivers for way too long.
- Iowa replaced both the OC and DC three years ago with multiple position coaching changes as well. This transition has not gone smoothly whatsoever. The Hawks had returning starters at QB, RB, WR and 3/5 OL. For whatever reason, the offense really stunk earlier in the year. We have a Texas OC without the Texas skill-player talent.
- Typically Iowa's DL leads the way in the success of the defense. The lack of an edge rusher and three brand new LBs have been a lot to overcome. This unit has played better and better as the season has gone on, but has been placed in tough positions due to poor STs play and lack of offensive proficiency.
- Iowa has been at their best when they go back to the previous OCs schemes with downhill running coupled with play-action passing. The horizontal passing game has failed miserably mostly due to lack of quickness on the perimeter and the ability of defenses to man up on the outside and load up the box.
- QB Jake Rudock has been coached to be risk-averse and won't throw to a receiver unless he's wide open. Because of our receivers not being wide open much, the passing game is also very inconsistent. We came out vs. Wisconsin very conservative and trailed by 16 before coming out of their proverbial collective shells to open up the passing game with great success.
- We run Mark Weisman, a 240 lb. tailback on outside zone stretches with alarming regularity. He's a strong runner with decent speed for his size, but has no change of direction ability and misses cutback lanes over and over. Behind him on the depth chart is some quickness, but they don't get to play enough.
- Tevaun Smith is a darn good receiver who isn't thrown to nearly enough. Iowa's offense lets the defense dictate where the ball goes rather than dictating to the defense what they need to cover. Everything is done with sight-reads on the LOS, which forces the QB and receivers to be on the same page or the play fails.
- Special teams had been a strength in the past and won Iowa several games along the way. This year, punt coverage and the return game has been a liability. FG kicking has improved as the season has gone on. PK has a very strong leg and is fourth in the nation in touchback percentage.
- To win this game Iowa will need to avoid multiple turnovers, keep the penalty count down, stay on schedule and in front of the chains, have some semblance of a running game and avoid giving up the big play both defensively and on special teams.
- If Iowa doesn't do the above and Tennessee plays a relatively clean game I don't think we have a chance.
- My unbiased opinion of your team is very optimistic and I think you have great things ahead of you, starting as early as next year by winning the SEC East. Dobbs, Hurd, Sutton and Barnett are outstanding. Getting your OL healthy will probably be your biggest key to success.
- I'm as optimistic as they come regarding the Hawkeyes, but I just don't know which team is going to show up. If the Hawks are ready to play and do the above, which is entirely possible, I could see Iowa winning by 2-3 TDs. My confidence level for this is about 10%.
- Ferentz typically has Iowa ready to go for bowl games and scouts the opponents very well. I'm just not sure we have an answer for Dobbs. I don't see a blowout happening and am more confident about a convincing Iowa win over us getting drubbed. The real answer probably rests somewhere in the middle, so I will say Tennessee wins 24-19. Iowa has had trouble scoring TDs in the red zone with alarming regularity and has to settle for four FGs and only one TD.
I'll tell you what I'd like to see Iowa do if I were OC vs. what I think they'll do in a later post.
