Tennessee 31 Missouri 19

#1
OrangeMagic

OrangeMagic

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#1
Here's my reasoning :)

I know the transitive property doesn't work in sports but we have a common ranked opponent in currently #9 Georgia whom we played fairly close and they were throttled by. On the other hand, they convincingly, with turnover scores, beat Florida which we failed to do. They've struggled with Kentucky and Vandy but managed to score more points than A&M which has the worst defense in the conference.

The stats I've looked at come from cfbstats.com and for Tennessee, I've averaged the last 3 games with Dobbs as the QB because the overall average would be skewed otherwise.

Vols last three games

Rushing Passing Overall
246 266 512

Overall, that would rank us as the #8 offense nationally. Missouri's defense ranks #22 nationally. Our defense is #39 and Missouri's offense is #107 nationally.

Having said all of that, I know that applying logic to football games can be folly and that turnovers and sacks can turn a game completely around. But, we're at home and even with missing players/leadership, I think we win comfortably. I don't think they can stop the unpredictability of Dobbs and I don't think Maty is going to hurt us much this time around.
 
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#3
#3
2014-10-15-overthinking.jpg
 
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#4
#4
Other_Guy said:
If the offense has the same success as they did against 2 bad defenses Ill be surprised
Click to expand...

Talking about Mizzou, right?

Bama is a better D than Mizzou. Their players are better. Their schemes and coaching are at least as good. UT spotted them a couple of series then Dobbs led the Vols to 20 pts... after just one week of working with the ones.

I tend to agree with the OP if things go to norm.
 
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#5
#5
OrangeMagic said:
Here's my reasoning :)

I know the transitive property doesn't work in sports but we have a common ranked opponent in currently #9 Georgia whom we played fairly close and they were throttled by. On the other hand, they convincingly, with turnover scores, beat Florida which we failed to do. They've struggled with Kentucky and Vandy but managed to score more points than A&M which has the worst defense in the conference.

The stats I've looked at come from cfbstats.com and for Tennessee, I've averaged the last 3 games with Dobbs as the QB because the overall average would be skewed otherwise.

Vols last three games

Rushing Passing Overall
246 266 512

Overall, that would rank us as the #8 offense nationally. Missouri's defense ranks #22 nationally. Our defense is #39 and Missouri's offense is #107 nationally.

Having said all of that, I know that applying logic to football games can be folly and that turnovers and sacks can turn a game completely around. But, we're at home and even with missing players/leadership, I think we win comfortably. I don't think they can stop the unpredictability of Dobbs and I don't think Maty is going to hurt us much this time around.
Click to expand...

I am sympathetic to this. Some people are going to say that Kentucky and South Carolina have bad SEC defenses. But, at the same time, they are still better than some of the cupcakes that we - and Missouri - have played. They are still SEC teams, and we are still absolutely shredding defenses over the previous 11 quarters.

The important thing, though, is that our pass rush is coming along just as well as our offense, and over the previous 6-7 games we have been as good as anybody in the SEC. We are able to play fast and efficiently on offense, and we are able to come right back on the defensive side and play with the same speed and aggression, keeping the QB on his back. As long as we can keep Mauk from busting big plays, we should hold Missouri to 16-22 points at best. I am pretty confident that we can eclipse that total on offense.

The only thing keeping me from predicting an 8-10 point win is a worry about how this investigation and these allegations will affect the teams performance (not that this is why we should care about the allegations). Sometimes something like this can bring a team together. Sometimes it can really affect performance.
 
#7
#7
Tennessee - 27
Missouri - 24

Tennessee comes out hot early to take a 20 point lead but the defense lets Missouri come back to take a 24 to 20 point lead by the 4th quarter, but Mr. Dobbs leads a touchdown drive in the last 2 minutes that give UT the win.
 
#8
#8
sjt18 said:
Talking about Mizzou, right?

Bama is a better D than Mizzou. Their players are better. Their schemes and coaching are at least as good. UT spotted them a couple of series then Dobbs led the Vols to 20 pts... after just one week of working with the ones.

I tend to agree with the OP if things go to norm.
Click to expand...

Agreed. People forget that this streak goes back to the point where Dobbs took over at QB, halfway through the first quarter of the Alabama game. We beat them over the final three quarters of that game, and our offense did better against their D than almost any team that has faced them. Only West Virginia and Miss St had more yards against them than we did, and they only beat us by 10 and 45 respectively. And that is with Peterman clogging up our offense for the first two series. With Dobbs in for the full game, we almost definitely surpass West Virginia, and have a good shot at eclipsing Mississippi State's total.

This isn't just about Kentucky and South Carolina being bad - this is about the Tennessee offense turning the corner and being one of the better units in the SEC.
 
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#9
#9
jabroni said:
Tennessee - 27
Missouri - 24

Tennessee comes out hot early to take a 20 point lead but the defense lets Missouri come back to take a 24 to 20 point lead by the 4th quarter, but Mr. Dobbs leads a touchdown drive in the last 2 minutes that give UT the win.
Click to expand...

I hope your scenario doesn't play out because teams usually lose in the situation you stated. If the Vols blow a 20 point lead, I doubt they come out victorious.
 
#10
#10
UT should beat missouri easily---the Vols are rolling, missouri got blown out by georgia and lost to lowly indiana. UT 38 missouri 16--bet the house.
 
#12
#12
jabroni said:
Tennessee - 27
Missouri - 24

Tennessee comes out hot early to take a 20 point lead but the defense lets Missouri come back to take a 24 to 20 point lead by the 4th quarter, but Mr. Dobbs leads a touchdown drive in the last 2 minutes that give UT the win.
Click to expand...

I think Missouri's defense scores more than their offense..
 
#13
#13
I didn't see the Missouri game with Texas A&M, so maybe they have made some changes but I did watch their games with Georgia and South Carolina and I just don't see any way Missouri scores more than 21 points against us unless we give them great field position with multiple turnovers or a defensive or special teams touchdown. That's definitely possible but I don't think the smoke and mirrors routine works for them on Sat night.
 
#14
#14
jabroni said:
Tennessee - 27
Missouri - 24

Tennessee comes out hot early to take a 20 point lead but the defense lets Missouri come back to take a 24 to 20 point lead by the 4th quarter, but Mr. Dobbs leads a touchdown drive in the last 2 minutes that give UT the win.
Click to expand...

Hey Nostradamus, how's it hanging? :)
Is this in a new book...say, like, the Las Vegas book?
Anyway, as long as we win that's all that matters to the Orange and White. I like it! :yes:

GO VOLS
 
#15
#15
I want to hear BeattieFeathers prediction....
 
#16
#16
I'm wrong more often that not, but I'm not sure either offense is strong enough to put the points up people are talking about.

20-14 to the boys in orange.
 
#17
#17
VolsRule said:
UT should beat missouri easily---the Vols are rolling, missouri got blown out by georgia and lost to lowly indiana. UT 38 missouri 16--bet the house.
Click to expand...

I predicted 38 - 17, so I'm ok with your prediction. :hi:
 
#18
#18
Both teams are hot right now, but this AJ thing is slowly putting a damper on things.
 
#19
#19
OrangeMagic said:
Here's my reasoning :)

I know the transitive property doesn't work in sports but we have a common ranked opponent in currently #9 Georgia whom we played fairly close and they were throttled by. On the other hand, they convincingly, with turnover scores, beat Florida which we failed to do. They've struggled with Kentucky and Vandy but managed to score more points than A&M which has the worst defense in the conference.

The stats I've looked at come from cfbstats.com and for Tennessee, I've averaged the last 3 games with Dobbs as the QB because the overall average would be skewed otherwise.

Vols last three games

Rushing Passing Overall
246 266 512

Overall, that would rank us as the #8 offense nationally. Missouri's defense ranks #22 nationally. Our defense is #39 and Missouri's offense is #107 nationally.

Having said all of that, I know that applying logic to football games can be folly and that turnovers and sacks can turn a game completely around. But, we're at home and even with missing players/leadership, I think we win comfortably. I don't think they can stop the unpredictability of Dobbs and I don't think Maty is going to hurt us much this time around.
Click to expand...

Why don't you just use the averages of our common opponents since Dobbs started which is 2 games? USC and Kentucky.
 
#20
#20
madbamahater said:
I hope your scenario doesn't play out because teams usually lose in the situation you stated. If the Vols blow a 20 point lead, I doubt they come out victorious.
Click to expand...

I don't think this'll be as easy of a win as some of the vol fans think. UT has momentum, and yes Dobbs has played amazing as of late, but UT still has weaknesses and that includes a vulnerable o-line. I think UT will win, but it's going to be a close one.
 
#23
#23
BowlBrother85 said:
I didn't see the Missouri game with Texas A&M, so maybe they have made some changes but I did watch their games with Georgia and South Carolina and I just don't see any way Missouri scores more than 21 points against us unless we give them great field position with multiple turnovers or a defensive or special teams touchdown. That's definitely possible but I don't think the smoke and mirrors routine works for them on Sat night.
Click to expand...
They survived at A&M. Aggies were halted on 4th goal at the 1 to tie it, Mizzou held but by string of their teeth, Bammer held Aggies scoreless.
 
#24
#24
Remy said:
They survived at A&M. Aggies were halted on 4th goal at the 1 to tie it, Mizzou held but by string of their teeth, Bammer held Aggies scoreless.
Click to expand...

Good to know that stuffing a team on the goal line is nowadays just considered surviving by the skin of one's teeth now; I'll be sure to let people know that the next time that our defense stops someone who comes into Neyland on 4th and short to win a game, it's really just that we got lucky.
 
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