JMO (Based On The Numbers)

#1
Dagreek1998

Dagreek1998

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#1
Guys,

I am by no means what some might consider a “Sunshine Sally”, but there are quite a few items that should give us some hope @ Ole Miss. Now I am not calling for the upset, but there is a recipe there can could make Saturday evening very interesting.

Tennessee Offense vs Ole Miss Defense

Scoring
UT Scoring Offense #79
UT Opponent Average Scoring Defense #36
Ole Miss Scoring Defense #2
Ole Miss Opponent Average Scoring Offense #61
Advantage Ole Miss

Total Offense
UT Total Offense #107
UT Opponent Average Total Defense #35
Ole Miss Total Defense #13
Ole Miss Opponent Average Total Offense #51
Advantage Ole Miss

Rushing Offense
UT Rushing Offense #109
UT Opponent Average Rushing Defense #25
Ole Miss Rushing Defense #21
Ole Miss Opponent Average Rushing Offense #58
Advantage Ole Miss

Passing Offense
UT Passing Offense #62
UT Opponent Average Passing Defense #62
Ole Miss Passing Defense #21
Ole Miss Opponent Average Passing Offense #53
Advantage Ole Miss

Sacks Allowed
UT Sacks Allowed #118
UT Opponent Average Sacks #27
Ole Miss Sacks Defense #79
Ole Miss Opponent Average Sacks Allowed #36
Advantage Ole Miss, but not as much as one might think. Ole Miss has less total sacks than any of Tennessee’s previous opponents, as well as the Tennessee Defense.

Tennessee Defense vs Ole Miss Offense
Scoring
UT Scoring Defense #19
UT Opponent Average Scoring Offense #49
Ole Miss Scoring Offense #33
Ole Miss Opponent Average Scoring Defense #60
Advantage Tennessee

Total Offense
UT Total Defense #13
UT Opponent Average Total Offense #68
Ole Miss Total Offense #45
Ole Miss Opponent Average Total Defense #58
Advantage Tennessee

Rushing Offense
UT Rushing Defense #67
UT Opponent Average Rushing Offense #50
Ole Miss Rushing Offense #85
Ole Miss Opponent Average Rushing Defense #53
Advantage Tennessee

Passing Offense
UT Passing Defense #8
UT Opponent Average Passing Offense #82
Ole Miss Passing Offense #26
Ole Miss Opponent Average Passing Defense #67
Advantage Tennessee

Sacks Allowed
UT Sacks #65
UT Opponent Average Sacks Allowed #41
Ole Miss Sacks Allowed #56
Ole Miss Opponent Average Sacks #58
Advantage Tennessee

Tennessee Special Teams vs Ole Miss Special Teams

Punts
UT Punt Return #43
UT Punt Return Defense #24
Ole Miss Punt Return #101
Ole Miss Punt Return Defense #28
Advantage Tennessee

Kickoffs
UT Kickoff Return #31
UT KO Return Defense #59
Ole Miss Kickoff Return #110
Ole Miss KO Return Defense #47
Advantage Tennessee

Extra Factors

Turn Over Margin
UT T.O.M #23
UT Opponents T.O.M. #28
Ole Miss T.O.M #15
Ole Miss Opponents T.O.M #87
Advantage Tennessee

Penalties
UT #11
Ole Miss #67


Synopsis
While all of the UT Offense vs Ole Miss Defense favor Ole Miss, all of the UT Defense vs Ole Miss Offense favor UT. Also, the turnover margin and penalties favor UT. To me, if UT does the following, they have a chance.
1. PROTECT THE BALL! Ole Miss has been able to turn teams over at a high rate. Their opponents have been mistake prone with an average T.O.M rank of #87. UT has been able to achieve a respectable T.O.M rack, even against opponents that have been reluctant to turn the ball over with a T.O.M rank of #28.

2. WIN THE KICKING GAME! Punts are not a bad thing, just ask Lou Holtz when he was at USCjr. With our defense having an advantage at most matchups, we must not give Ole Miss short fields to work with. Ole Miss return teams are ranked #101 and #110 while UT teams are ranked #43 and #31. We also have a slight advantage on return defense as well.

3. PLAY FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER! If we do #1 and #2, and we play within ourselves on offense, we have a chance to keep this game close at the end. If so, this could come down to kickers and I like our chances. Ole Miss is 2 of 5 on kicks 30 yards or longer.

4. CONTROL EMOTIONS! UT has a big advantage with penalties, keep that advantage.


Once again, I am not saying that we will win, I am simply saying the there is a recipe. JMO:good!:
 
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#2
#2
Great Analysis. I also agree with all the points you make. It all goes back to don't make mistakes.
 
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#3
#3
Tennessee's defense is underrated. But if our Offense can't get some drives strung together, they'll be worn down late in the game.

I think it'll be a similar game to the UGA game - except fewer points on our side.

If I were Worley, I'd be having nightmares thinking of that defensive front against his protection.
 
#7
#7
We might have all our weapons healthy for this game for the first time since arky state. We have really only had one poor game on offense. if we play our A game on both sides of the ball, we have more than a chance, I think we win.
 
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#8
#8
Stevorino said:
Tennessee's defense is underrated. But if our Offense can't get some drives strung together, they'll be worn down late in the game.

I think it'll be a similar game to the UGA game - except fewer points on our side.

If I were Worley, I'd be having nightmares thinking of that defensive front against his protection.
Click to expand...

I agree with your original point but the big difference is that they don't have a Gurley or even a Chubb. Their starting running back averages less than 48 yards a game. That puts the game more so on Bo's arm and even his legs. If you think back to the last few Ole Miss games, his pass attempts are dropping and are shifting to the rush attempts. Based upon how we handled Utah States QB, I like our chances to stunt that quickly.
 
#9
#9
I'm going down to oxford to watch the game this weekends since it's fall break!

some things I want to see: (kind of goes for every game)

keep worley off his back.
no stupid mistakes (turnovers, bad penalties, bad special teams plays, etc)
win (or atleast don't get killed) in the field position battle
help bring out the "bad bo" (put him under pressure and force him to make the plays)
keep their RBs in check (and Treadwell as well)
 
#10
#10
Great synopsis and analysis. I hope for a close game with no injuries for both teams. We need to be 100% helathy for the November stretch as that's when we have a better shot at some wins. It definitely will be a Defnsive battle but in the end ole miss is more experienced and a better team 24-14 OM
 
#11
#11
DocVOLiday said:
I'm going down to oxford to watch the game this weekends since it's fall break!

some things I want to see: (kind of goes for every game)

keep worley off his back.
no stupid mistakes (turnovers, bad penalties, bad special teams plays, etc)
win (or atleast don't get killed) in the field position battle
help bring out the "bad bo" (put him under pressure and force him to make the plays)
keep their RBs in check (and Treadwell as well)
Click to expand...

get there early so you can hang out in the grove. Hope you bring us a win!
 
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#12
#12
Also, as much press as Ole Miss Defense is getting.

1) Tennessee has more sacks
2) Tennessee has more tackles for loss

Strength of schedule
UT #6
Ole Miss #21
 
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#13
#13
I personally think ole miss is a bit overrated. Their signature wins are against a Bama team that I saw play in person two days ago that is really struggling on the road and looks leaderless. A&M is overrated because everyone thought they would be world beaters after beating a bad USCjr to open the season but are terrible defensively. I just think if Butch can get up a couple of scores off turnovers or special teams and our D shows up to play lights out like they have been all year, then we could be very much in this game in the 4th quarter.
 
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#14
#14
Our best shot at winning this game. #1 no turnovers. #2 no or very few penalties. #3 hope that bad Bo shows up and score on defense when he turns it over. I think our defense can play with these guys but we have to score on defense. Don't see our offense doing much against them.
 
#15
#15
Great post and thanks for putting so much effort into it. I like numbers and science. This tells you something. I think this will be another low scoring game like Florida. Our defense is underrated. If we avoid turnovers and play the field position game with no mistakes, it very well could come down to a field goal. You got this Medley! I'm not sold on Bo Wallace either. If we sack him and pressure him early, they could fall out of sync offensively. If our defense were to score a pick 6 or cause a fumble with their backs at the wall, we are in this game to the end.

Thank God this is a night game. It just might be a nail biter and I don't want to be absolutely wasted before supper time! Haha. See y'all on the 25th!
 
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#17
#17
Cliff notes:
Defensive battle with the Ole Miss defense and offense being starkly better than ours statistically.
 
#18
#18
WOW. That is great information. Thank you very much for all the work on your thread.
 
#19
#19
All good numbers. But you left out which quarter and how many times Worley gets hit from behind and fumbles.
 
#20
#20
While I agree with you points, our biggest missed season changer is 2 field goals off 5 interceptions against Florida and Georgia (we also had one against OK we didn't score I think).

If just two of those 5 are TDs we are 5-1 and 2-0 in the SEC
 
#22
#22
Our defense has gotten better every game. They can keep us in every game the rest of the year.
 
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#23
#23
cwbytruckers said:
All good numbers. But you left out which quarter and how many times Worley gets hit from behind and fumbles.
Click to expand...

Can Worley not have a discreet ear piece in so he can be warned with a beep when oncoming defenders are coming from behind? Haha I'm kidding y'all, but seriously...

I'm sure that's a NCAA violation, but in my opinion, the state of Mississippi being on top should be a violation. @&$/ you Sandra bullock for making that movie
 
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#24
#24
They will decimate our OL. Worley needs to take a knee (figuratively speaking) or throw it in the stands after 2 seconds and punt on 3rd down when we are in 3rd and 10+. Preserving Worley should be the number 1 priority to make it through the end of the season. I would normally look for the D to be on the field less than the O, but not to sure about that in this game.
 
#25
#25
roddo518 said:
We might have all our weapons healthy for this game for the first time since arky state. We have really only had one poor game on offense. if we play our A game on both sides of the ball, we have more than a chance, I think we win.
Click to expand...

Except for Smith and Young.
 
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