CFBMatrix: SEC East Preview – 2014

#1
Snakebrown13

Snakebrown13

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#1
Dave Bartoo is one of the best pure-stats guys out there; here's his preview:

SEC East Preview – 2014

4(t). Tennessee (6-6/3-5): The Week 3 game at Oklahoma might be the difference between bowling and staying at home. This is a great example of what a ninth conference game would do to some SEC teams and the conference. The Vols lose their entire offensive line, a huge blow. But, if they weren’t good to begin with, are you really losing much? Coach Butch Jones took off at Cincinnati in year two, but his level of competition has obviously increased significantly in the SEC. Jones coached exactly to expectations last year to put him No. 26 in Coach Effect and No. 52 in Coach Result.
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Wildcard: Tennessee. A combination of coach Butch Jones and rapidly ascending talent makes the Vols a growing danger. While they project to 6-6 this year, plus or minus two games is entirely possible, especially to the plus side. Any conference win in the middle of the season, or any loss late could shake up the standings in the East.
Random Prediction: The SEC will revert to the ‘defensive’ expectations in 2014. Only 63 percent of the total key offensive metrics return and nearly 70 percent of key defensive production is back. Expect scoring in the SEC, especially early in the season, to be below average in 2014.
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#3
#3
"The Vols lose their entire offensive line, a huge blow. But, if they weren’t good to begin with, are you really losing much?"

what most have been saying since last year ended...
 
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#4
#4
I'd pee myself with excitement if we get to that (plus 2) 8 win barrier with a chance for 9 in the bowl game.

Hell, 8 wins may get you the SEC East title this year. Who knows.
 
#5
#5
UTodd01 said:
I'd pee myself with excitement if we get to that (plus 2) 8 win barrier with a chance for 9 in the bowl game.

Hell, 8 wins may get you the SEC East title this year. Who knows.
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8 wins would be sweet, but wont win the sec. GBO!
 
#6
#6
titansvolsfaninga said:
"The Vols lose their entire offensive line, a huge blow. But, if they weren’t good to begin with, are you really losing much?"

what most have been saying since last year ended...
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It is very telling when someone like this points out our OL issues last year. I realize that we had what 4 OL guys make NFL teams. So I am curious on what the true issue was with them. Were they just not motivated and cashing it in for NFL contracts? The OL play this year should be interesting. As far as DL I think not having slow and lazy linemen will help us.
 
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#7
#7
Bluetic said:
8 wins would be sweet, but wont win the sec. GBO!
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It would get us in the SECCG if we only lost to OU, Bama, Ole Miss and only 1 loss in the East, then win the East tie-breaker at 5-3 in conference. In other words beat UF, UGA and USCe head to head and hope they lose out to the west same as us.

Not saying that's gonna happen...
 
#9
#9
Our o-line wasn't good?

I..what?

It's one thing for some of the idiots on this forum who downplay every position last year to make themselves believe we have a better chance this year..but the media doing it too? I don't even...

Without our o-line Worley/Peterman/Dobbs look even worse than the dog**** they already looked like and we have little to no run game. Our o-line pretty much was the only reason our offense saw any success last year.
 
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#11
#11
Titans4Vols said:
Our o-line wasn't good?

I..what?

It's one thing for some of the idiots on this forum who downplay every position last year to make themselves believe we have a better chance this year..but the media doing it too? I don't even...

Without our o-line Worley/Peterman/Dobbs look even worse than the dog**** they already looked like and we have little to no run game. Our o-line pretty much was the only reason our offense saw any success last year.
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Every time someone says our OL wasn't good last year, all you have to say is that the RBs got the highest average per carry than we have had in 10 about years. Also had one of the fewest sacks in the SEC if I remember correctly.
 
#12
#12
Catbone said:
Every time someone says our OL wasn't good last year, all you have to say is that the RBs got the highest average per carry than we have had in 10 about years. Also had one of the fewest sacks in the SEC if I remember correctly.
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Yeah, it's just this fanbase for you.

These are the same people that hated on Erik Ainge and thought he was easily replaceable. Same people who trashed Tyler Bray after he left and after losses because somehow scoring 30 points a game isn't good enough and the losses were his fault.

Any time any good player(or players, or player group) leaves, the seemingly growing stupid division of this fanbase make up 10,000 reasons about how they sucked and we're better off without them.

Gonna be hilarious to watch them retract all their statements(just as they have every other time they pulled this exact same idiotic bull****) when Worley(or whichever QB is under center this year) is getting pressured on every play and Lane/Hurd are getting hit as soon as they receive the football.
 
#14
#14
Titans4Vols said:
Yeah, it's just this fanbase for you.

These are the same people that hated on Erik Ainge and thought he was easily replaceable. Same people who trashed Tyler Bray after he left and after losses because somehow scoring 30 points a game isn't good enough and the losses were his fault.

Any time any good player(or players, or player group) leaves, the seemingly growing stupid division of this fanbase make up 10,000 reasons about how they sucked and we're better off without them.

Gonna be hilarious to watch them retract all their statements(just as they have every other time they pulled this exact same idiotic bull****) when Worley(or whichever QB is under center this year) is getting pressured on every play and Lane/Hurd are getting hit as soon as they receive the football.
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Yeah. What do you think our record is this year?
 
#15
#15
So if they're saying the Oklahoma game could be the difference of us going bowling or staying at home, but they're saying we go 6-6. Are they projecting we beat Oklahoma?
 
#16
#16
Titans4Vols said:
Our o-line wasn't good?

I..what?

It's one thing for some of the idiots on this forum who downplay every position last year to make themselves believe we have a better chance this year..but the media doing it too? I don't even...

Without our o-line Worley/Peterman/Dobbs look even worse than the dog**** they already looked like and we have little to no run game. Our o-line pretty much was the only reason our offense saw any success last year.
Click to expand...

Our line was serviceable at best, no reason this line can't be better.
 
#17
#17
creekerballer said:
So if they're saying the Oklahoma game could be the difference of us going bowling or staying at home, but they're saying we go 6-6. Are they projecting we beat Oklahoma?
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No he is saying if we don't make a bowl it would be in large part due to us scheduling a game we won't win instead of a freebie.

That's how i took it anyway
 
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#19
#19
TBtheGBwiththeTD said:
No he is saying if we don't make a bowl it would be in large part due to us scheduling a game we won't win instead of a freebie.

That's how i took it anyway
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Ahh that makes sense, I was thinking if he was saying we need to beat OU to have six wins he's crazy.
 
#20
#20
Catbone said:
Yeah. What do you think our record is this year?
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4-8/5-7-ish. Completely lacking on both lines of scrimmage is an absolute death wish in the SEC, and that's the scenario we're in right now. We've got fantastic skill players on offense, and if Worley can somehow play like he did against Georgia/South Carolina on a consistent basis we might be able to make up for that a bit, not sure it'd be enough to hit 6 wins though.

Our LB corp is solid enough with AJ Johnson leading it on D and I like our secondary, especially Sutton. But when you can't get penetration with your d-line it can cripple the rest of your D unless your secondary is elite. We've got some more speed on D this year which should make us a bit better, but still not too confident in it as of yet.

I have absolutely no clue how we're going to perform on the kicking aspects of special teams. The speed we've added helps with coverage and returns but in regards to kick offs/field goals/punts, we could be in a tight spot. Palardy's performance last year gave him an argument as the team MVP and now we're losing that without too much experience behind him. Hoping we'll be okay, but I'm not sure.

lincolncovol said:
Our line was serviceable at best, no reason this line can't be better.
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So back up the line being serviceable at best while all the stats and the NFL selections completely destroy that statement?

I'll be waiting.
 
#21
#21
Titans4Vols said:
4-8/5-7-ish. Completely lacking on both lines of scrimmage is an absolute death wish in the SEC, and that's the scenario we're in right now. We've got fantastic skill players on offense, and if Worley can somehow play like he did against Georgia/South Carolina on a consistent basis we might be able to make up for that a bit, not sure it'd be enough to hit 6 wins though.

Our LB corp is solid enough with AJ Johnson leading it on D and I like our secondary, especially Sutton. But when you can't get penetration with your d-line it can cripple the rest of your D unless your secondary is elite. We've got some more speed on D this year which should make us a bit better, but still not too confident in it as of yet.

I have absolutely no clue how we're going to perform on the kicking aspects of special teams. The speed we've added helps with coverage and returns but in regards to kick offs/field goals/punts, we could be in a tight spot. Palardy's performance last year gave him an argument as the team MVP and now we're losing that without too much experience behind him. Hoping we'll be okay, but I'm not sure.



So back up the line being serviceable at best while all the stats and the NFL selections completely destroy that statement?

I'll be waiting.
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Agreed, I have us at 5-7.
 
#22
#22
Titans4Vols said:
Our o-line wasn't good?

I..what?

It's one thing for some of the idiots on this forum who downplay every position last year to make themselves believe we have a better chance this year..but the media doing it too? I don't even...

Without our o-line Worley/Peterman/Dobbs look even worse than the dog**** they already looked like and we have little to no run game. Our o-line pretty much was the only reason our offense saw any success last year.
Click to expand...

I never understood that either. You don't actually even have to believe that our O Line was good last year. The fact is that the players that will start this year LOST OUT to the guys we had starting last year.
 
#23
#23
Catbone said:
Agreed, I have us at 5-7.
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I have posted my predictions a lot. I have us at 2-10.

I think we beat Utah State and Arkansas State. I think we lose every other game including a defensive show down with Chattanooga with the final score being 6-4 (all points scored on safeties).
 
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