Let's Track the "Professional" Predictions of the Vols 2014 season.

#1
D

daj2576

@aVolForLife
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#1
Volnation, I need your help.

Every year the "professionals" come out in force and tell us how they expect every team to perform. I want to compare the voluminous predictions to reality. I know many of the prognosticators are total clown shoes, and some are really good at what they do.

Help me track them?

If you have a link to any website, blogger, or magazine that tells us how they believe Vols 2014 season will turn out, post them here. I don't want this to be a discussion of what "we" think, there are a dozen threads about that already. Let's crowd source this, scour the internet, and I will compile a list of all preseason predictions and provide a summary at the end of the season.

EDIT: please try to avoid discussions of what "we" think, there is enough of that in every thread. I'd like to keep this about what "they" (the so-called professionals) think.
 
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#2
#2
The past 4 years the prognosticators predicted we would have winning records, and they were wrong each time.

But, they are saying we will have a losing record this year.

I hope they are wrong again :p
 
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#3
#3
College Football News.com (http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/218779-cfn-com-tabs-6-6-season.html) offers the following projections:

Realistic Best Case Record: 9-3
Worst Case Record: 4-8
Likely Finish: 6-6

If you are also interested in game-by-game projections, their breakdown is as follows:

Pre-Preseason Projected Wins: Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Missouri, at Vanderbilt

Pre-Preseason Projected Losses: at Oklahoma, at Georgia, Florida, at Ole Miss, Alabama, at South Carolina
 
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#4
#4
Athlon Sports (2014 College Football Rankings: #42 Tennessee | AthlonSports.com) provides an extremely fuzzy forecast, but they rank us 42nd nationally and 5th in the SEC East, just ahead of Cincinnati (43rd) and Vandy (44th), whom they predict to finish just behind us at 6th in the Eastern Division. They state that "While this team will eventually be better than the 2013 version, the roster turnover represented by 32 newcomers offers plenty of opportunities for things to go wrong. . . . Reaching six wins and a bowl game won’t be easy, but it will be a critical hurdle in keeping the Jones-fueled optimism alive and well in Knoxville."
 
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#6
#6
An early article (3/31/14) by Dave Bartoo of College Football Matrix (Teams rising 2+ games and/or getting to bowl eligible 2014) offers the following observation:

"Tennessee Volunteers. This is a team I have targeted to break out in 2015. The 2014 schedule is tough early and the Vols lose their entire O-Line. Coach Jones was very good at Cincinnati and the recruiting at Tennessee, as expected, has improved immensely. But one good class doesn’t make a turn around. The Volunteers are coming off a 5-7 year and they return only 57% of their offensive statistics and only 51% of their key defensive production. They get 8 home games but the road tilts are all loses. 6-6 is [expected] but it's a stretch to expect +2 game improvement to 7-5. #BrickbyBrick"
 
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#7
#7
Volosaurus rex said:
An early article (3/31/14) by Dave Bartoo of College Football Matrix (Teams rising 2+ games and/or getting to bowl eligible 2014) offers the following observation:

"Tennessee Volunteers. This is a team I have targeted to break out in 2015. The 2014 schedule is tough early and the Vols lose their entire O-Line. Coach Jones was very good at Cincinnati and the recruiting at Tennessee, as expected, has improved immensely. But one good class doesn’t make a turn around. The Volunteers are coming off a 5-7 year and they return only 57% of their offensive statistics and only 51% of their key defensive production. They get 8 home games but the road tilts are all loses. 6-6 is [expected] but it's a stretch to expect +2 game improvement to 7-5. #BrickbyBrick"
Click to expand...

That is an almost accurate assessment. But numbers don't tell the whole story. We may only return 57% of our O stats - but we are also returning a senior QB that seemed to be coming of age before he was injured. We are returning and adding to our WR corps, we are returning and adding to our RB corp (with one exception). We have upped our talent at TE. I think the 57% number comes from our attrition on the O line but it does not reflect the true story.
Defense. 51% production from last year? We will certainly be improved right out of the gate
 
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#8
#8
Volosaurus rex said:
College Football News.com (http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/218779-cfn-com-tabs-6-6-season.html) offers the following projections:

Realistic Best Case Record: 9-3
Worst Case Record: 4-8
Likely Finish: 6-6

If you are also interested in game-by-game projections, their breakdown is as follows:

Pre-Preseason Projected Wins: Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Kentucky, Missouri, at Vanderbilt

Pre-Preseason Projected Losses: at Oklahoma, at Georgia, Florida, at Ole Miss, Alabama, at South Carolina
Click to expand...


Those record predictions could be made for about 75% of all D1 teams this year. From 4-8 to 9-3??
 
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#11
#11
fade route said:
Those record predictions could be made for about 75% of all D1 teams this year. From 4-8 to 9-3??
Click to expand...

To be fair, it would probably be accurate for 75% of D1 teams. I think their likely result of 6-6 is right on as most realistic VFLs believe, unfortunately.
 
#12
#12
daj2576 said:
Volnation, I need your help.

Every year the "professionals" come out in force and tell us how they expect every team to perform. I want to compare the voluminous predictions to reality. I know many of the prognosticators are total clown shoes, and some are really good at what they do.

Help me track them?

If you have a link to any website, blogger, or magazine that tells us how they believe Vols 2014 season will turn out, post them here. I don't want this to be a discussion of what "we" think, there are a dozen threads about that already. Let's crowd source this, scour the internet, and I will compile a list of all preseason predictions and provide a summary at the end of the season.
Click to expand...



I am not a professional but last year, I projected the exact record that we ended up with but I predicted that we would beat UGA and lose to USC. I guess I got lucky!!!!

This season, I predict a 5 - 7 record again.
 
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#13
#13
I think game by game predictions are more interesting than a blanket season record.

Think back to last year, most weren't shocked that UT went 5-7. However, how many predicted South Carolina as a W instead of Vandy?
 
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#14
#14
Boca Vol said:
I think game by game predictions are more interesting than a blanket season record.

Think back to last year, most weren't shocked that UT went 5-7. However, how many predicted South Carolina as a W instead of Vandy?
Click to expand...

You have described exactly what I am looking for. I want to see someone who is either competent or compulsive enough to show the world exactly how he/she expects the season to turn out on a game by game breakdown.

Here is a very early rough compilation of some of the stuff you guys have provided. Keep em coming. We can do this all the way through the season.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vOKoQ_Pix10mXVhg6lEOdU8NNvYUVVZq07lJvw8KrA0/pubhtml

To answer your question, I predicted a win over SCAR, but not a loss to Vandy. ;)
 
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#15
#15
Volosaurus rex said:
An early article (3/31/14) by Dave Bartoo of College Football Matrix (Teams rising 2+ games and/or getting to bowl eligible 2014) offers the following observation:

"Tennessee Volunteers. This is a team I have targeted to break out in 2015. The 2014 schedule is tough early and the Vols lose their entire O-Line. Coach Jones was very good at Cincinnati and the recruiting at Tennessee, as expected, has improved immensely. But one good class doesn’t make a turn around. The Volunteers are coming off a 5-7 year and they return only 57% of their offensive statistics and only 51% of their key defensive production. They get 8 home games but the road tilts are all loses. 6-6 is [expected] but it's a stretch to expect +2 game improvement to 7-5. #BrickbyBrick"
Click to expand...

Dave and I share a similar philosophy. I like a lot of what he does.
 
#17
#17
Boca Vol said:
I think game by game predictions are more interesting than a blanket season record.

Think back to last year, most weren't shocked that UT went 5-7. However, how many predicted South Carolina as a W instead of Vandy?
Click to expand...

I agree week by week is the only way to get close.
 
#18
#18
Talking heads making predictions is no different than any of us making predictions...except we want 12-0.
 
#19
#19
daj2576 said:
You have described exactly what I am looking for. I want to see someone who is either competent or compulsive enough to show the world exactly how he/she expects the season to turn out on a game by game breakdown.

Here is a very early rough compilation of some of the stuff you guys have provided. Keep em coming. We can do this all the way through the season.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_y-uxrQEls2m7y3NxgcTBphBX3bWJVOMnHUJoPuxafA/pubhtml

To answer your question, I predicted a win over SCAR, but not a loss to Vandy. ;)
Click to expand...

I think we've discussed this in the "book" thread in regards to the 70% rule. I'm not an expert, but here's how I would see the season playing out:

USU- W
Ark St. - W
OKLA- L
UGA- L
UF- W*
UTC- W
Ole Miss- L*
Bama- L
S. Car- L
UK- W
Mizz- W*
Vandy-W

So I'm saying 7-5 with an *. If UT loses to UF (which is highly likely) then UT could wind up 6-6 or 5-7.

If UT beats UF, they could have the momentum to beat Ole Miss.

I'm still going with this record of 7-5.
 
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#22
#22
BigOrangeFanatic said:
If we go 4-8, fire bUTch!

If he cant get to 6-6 this year its a bad sign IMO. There's no excuse losing to Vandy, and they should be able to find a way to beat Mizzou at home.

6-6 is my prediction.
Click to expand...

Yeah, lets revolving door our coaches till we get this thing fixed. That'll work.










:crazy:
 
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#23
#23
How UT handles the 1st part of this 7-game stretch will determine how this season goes. Only UTC offers a bit of a breather.

OKLA
UGA
UF
UTC
Ole Miss
Bama
S. Car
 
#24
#24
BigOrangeFanatic said:
If we go 4-8, fire bUTch!

If he cant get to 6-6 this year its a bad sign IMO. There's no excuse losing to Vandy, and they should be able to find a way to beat Mizzou at home.

6-6 is my prediction.
Click to expand...

4-8 would be a bad sign but we should not set ourselves up for disappointment. We have to remember we are going to be fielding A LOT of freshmen. We could easily go 4-8 this year then easily get 9 wins next year. I do not believe anything can be as disappointing as the 2005 season or more recently the 2012 season.
 
#25
#25
I Love Lamp said:
4-8 would be a bad sign but we should not set ourselves up for disappointment. We have to remember we are going to be fielding A LOT of freshmen. We could easily go 4-8 this year then easily get 9 wins next year. I do not believe anything can be as disappointing as the 2005 season or more recently the 2012 season.
Click to expand...

There is absolutely "zero" excuse to lose to Vandy this year...or any year for that matter. I obviously wouldn't be surprised with 5-7 but if he goes 4-8 and loses to Vandy, he will have digressed from year 1 to year 2. Recruiting will likely stall at that point.

He needs a bowl game this year to keep everything rolling in the right direction. This team will be talented enough to get there if the coaching is there as well. We shall see.
 
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