Barnhart: Vols on right track says Dooley

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by tvolsfan

Would Tennessee have won big? Of course not. Would Saban have gone under .500? I don't see that, either.

Look at CNS's record in his second year at MSU, while going 6-6. Note specifically the level of competition his 6 wins were against. You don't think he could possibly have gone sub-.500 at UT?

With your "may not have won big" comment, you're inferring that he would have overcome a talent deficiency with coaching prowess. Is that what he did at MSU by failing to play up to competition there?

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by tvolsfan

That's fair, but I'm betting we would have seen progress instead of regresion.

In his first two seasons at MSU, I would argue that CNS showed regression from year 1, to year two. W/Ls stayed the same, but competitiveness statistics dropped.

He went 2/6 against teams with winning records in 1995.

He went 1/6 against teams with winning records in 1996.

_________________________________

In 1995, Saban lost to:

Nebraska - 12-0-0
(Tied) Perdue - 4-6-1
Iowa - 8-4-0
Wisconsin - 4-5-2
Penn St - 9-3-0
LSU - 7-4-1 -- 26-45 blowout

wins:

Louisville - 7-4-0
BC - 4-8-0 (25-21 squeaker)
Illinois - 5-5-1
Minnesota - 3-8-0
Michigan - 9-4-0
Indiana - 2-9-0

Saban played 6 teams with a winning record, and lost to 4 of them.

The teams he beat were a combined: 30-38

______________________________

1996:

Nebraska - 11-2-0
Louisville - 5-6-0
Iowa - 9-3-0
Michigan - 8-4-0
Penn St - 11-2-0
Stanford - 7-5-0 -- 38-0 blowout

Wins:

Purdue - 3-8
Eastern Michigan - 3-8
Illinois - 2-9
Minnesota - 4-7
Wisconsin - 8-5
Indiana - 3-8

Of the six teams that he played who had winning records, he beat one of them.

The teams he beat were a combined: 23-45

[tvolsfan]

Originally Posted by Orange_Crush

Mike Shula was a great recruiter. Saban was left a lot of talent.

Mike Shula dealt with the worst part of Alabama's issues, but let's not pretend he handed Saban the 2001 Canes or something like that.

Considering his record at MSU (which is the only place he's ever coached that comes anywhere near the dumpster fire UT has been), it is completely feasible to make that inference.

So it's reasonable to assume a guy who has never had a losing season in college would have lead Tennessee to it's worst two seasons back to back in 100 years? Yup, fair assumption.

You may choose to think emotionally, and that's OK. But I posted the numbers. I should have posted the scores from his MSU games; it would only made matters look worse.

Yeah, because Tennessee's scores make Dooley look really good.

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by tvolsfan

Mike Shula dealt with the worst part of Alabama's issues, but let's not pretend he handed Saban the 2001 Canes or something like that.

Not saying CNS is a bad coach. I've actually acknowledged that he is a great coach. As a matter of fact, his being a great coach is a large part of what my argument hinges on.

Originally Posted by tvolsfan

So it's reasonable to assume a guy who has never had a losing season in college would have lead Tennessee to it's worst two seasons back to back in 100 years? Yup, fair assumption.

I will keep posting these until you acknowledge them. He went 6-6 his first two years while beating a total of three teams that had winning records. He also did not lose 2 of his best players in year 2. Now, go back and look at the quality of opponents that UT played. Look again at the quality he played going .500 his first two years at MSU. You won't even admit the possibility of him going sub-500 at UT the past 2 years. Really?

In 1995, Saban lost to:

Nebraska - 12-0-0
(Tied) Perdue - 4-6-1
Iowa - 8-4-0
Wisconsin - 4-5-2
Penn St - 9-3-0
LSU - 7-4-1 -- 26-45 blowout

wins:

Louisville - 7-4-0
BC - 4-8-0 (25-21 squeaker)
Illinois - 5-5-1
Minnesota - 3-8-0
Michigan - 9-4-0
Indiana - 2-9-0

Saban played 6 teams with a winning record, and lost to 4 of them.

The teams he beat were a combined: 30-38

______________________________

1996:

Nebraska - 11-2-0
Louisville - 5-6-0
Iowa - 9-3-0
Michigan - 8-4-0
Penn St - 11-2-0
Stanford - 7-5-0 -- 38-0 blowout

Wins:

Purdue - 3-8
Eastern Michigan - 3-8
Illinois - 2-9
Minnesota - 4-7
Wisconsin - 8-5
Indiana - 3-8

Of the six teams that he played who had winning records, he beat one of them.

The teams he beat were a combined: 23-45

Originally Posted by tvolsfan

Yeah, because Tennessee's scores make Dooley look really good.

Never said that. I said CNS looked like crap too in a similar rebuild situation. I said that it's been too soon to judge him as a coach. Is that really so hard to follow?

[tvolsfan]

Originally Posted by Orange_Crush

He went 2/6 against teams with winning records in 1995.

He went 1/6 against teams with winning records in 1996.

So what you're saying is that in Saban's first two years at Michigan State, he beat more 1-A teams with winning records than Derek Dooley has beaten in 5 years? Yeah, I feel a lot better about Dooley now.

[BeecherVol]

Originally Posted by Orange_Crush

Eh? What? That makes no sense. The greatest coach in college football sucked for four years when trying to rebuild a program. That doesn't tell us anything of worth about the time needed to rebuild a program? And MSU was arguably more stable than UT has been the last three years, while playing against lesser opponents.

Every coach is different? Yes. But rebuilds are hard. Saban proved that. I'm comparing the amount of time to rebuild a program; not coaches. Saban is in the conversation because he is a proven coach who inherited a similarly tough rebuild with similar results.

The point is that it takes time, and the initial results are not necessarily indicative of coaching talent.



Yes, you can. And one of those judgments should be: History shows that rebuilding a program takes time and you can't divorce results from the state of the program.

BTW: Did you get a look at Saban's record? Go look up some of the blow-out scores he had put up against him. "Judgments as the process goes on" can be misleading.



Granted. It always helps, though, when your judgments are based in rational appraisal as opposed to emotional response. (Not making a judgment about yours.)




Saban had four of them. He's the best thing since sliced bread.

I think you missed my point. Saban dragging his feet at points during his career has nothing to do with what DD or any other coach will do. It doesnt mean Dooley will win 3 NCs and it doesnt mean he will get fired next winter either.

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by tvolsfan

So what you're saying is that in Saban's first two years at Michigan State, he beat more 1-A teams with winning records than Derek Dooley has beaten in 5 years? Yeah, I feel a lot better about Dooley now.

Great:

An 8-5 Wisconsin, 7-4 Louisville, and 9-4 Michigan. Be still my beating heart... All while playing scrubs the majority of his games...

And you are ignoring the fact that CDD was in two separate rebuilding situations while forming that record, and has played two tougher schedules than CNS ever DREAMED about at MSU. Dooley had one three year basement rebuilding project, and is year two of the next. CNS had one four year basement rebuild.

CNS proved that it takes time. CDD has proven he needs time. Point still stands.

Anyway... Nice way to change the subject. Are you still going to deny the possibility that CNS may have gone sub-.500 the past two years at UT?

Did you notice the 4-point squeaker against a 4-8 BC team? Even without losing two of his best players, it was mighty close.

I wonder what would have happened in year one if he had replaced one of these:

Louisville - 7-4-0
BC - 4-8-0 (25-21 squeaker)
Illinois - 5-5-1
Minnesota - 3-8-0
Michigan - 9-4-0
Indiana - 2-9-0

With last year's Oregon.

Or these guys:

Purdue - 3-8
Eastern Michigan - 3-8
Illinois - 2-9
Minnesota - 4-7
Wisconsin - 8-5
Indiana - 3-8

were replaced by the SEC gauntlet UT walked through last year.

Still don't think it's possible?

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by BeecherVol

I think you missed my point. Saban dragging his feet at points during his career has nothing to do with what DD or any other coach will do. It doesnt mean Dooley will win 3 NCs and it doesnt mean he will get fired next winter either.

All I'm saying is that CNS inherited a similar situatin as CDD (arguably not as bad) and proved that the amount of time to start winning is not indicative of coaching ability.

It's just hard.

Again:

[BeecherVol]

Originally Posted by Orange_Crush

All I'm saying is that CNS inherited a similar situatin as CDD (arguably not as bad) and proved that the amount of time to start winning is not indicative of coaching ability.

It's just hard.

Again:

He'll have his chance this fall. He has enough pieces to prove worth. I hope he gets it done. He was given a great opportunity at a great place

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by BeecherVol

He'll have his chance this fall. He has enough pieces to prove worth. I hope he gets it done. He was given a great opportunity at a great place

I agree on all points.

[BeecherVol]

Originally Posted by Orange_Crush

I agree on all points.

My confidence that he will is still to be determined.

[Orange_Crush]

Originally Posted by BeecherVol

My confidence that he will is still to be determined.

Mine has been up and down, bro. But....


"Always look on the bright side of life..."

Always Look On The Bright Side of Life - YouTube

[BeecherVol]

Originally Posted by Orange_Crush

Mine has been up and down, bro. But....


"Always look on the bright side of life..."

Always Look On The Bright Side of Life - YouTube

The rest of my life is awesome. Just waitin for the football to catch back up.

Hopefully the time is now. I have no patience. My wife will vouch.

[vollygirl]

Originally Posted by BeecherVol

The rest of my life is awesome. Just waitin for the football to catch back up.

Hopefully the time is now. I have no patience. My wife will vouch.

You're the male version of me.

[m1al]

Originally Posted by Negateer

That's easy. he would have crashed and burned, and then would have promptly left for another coaching position.

Seriously? You think Saban would do all that with the current roster at UT? Yet you expect Dooley, with the same roster, to go 8-4 or maybe 9-3, get a contract extension and cap it off with a STELLAR recruiting class for '13........ As much as anyone, I hope this happens..

Anyway, my original question was hypothetical. My point being, that a record of say, 8-4 this year is not necessarily a great accomplishment IMO.. It's simply what Dooley has to do to keep his job. Again, my opinion..