Looking at the Vols' Draw in the Tourney

#1

Wise-Vol

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#1
1. We got screwed as a #6 seed. I don't think that is in doubt.

2. We could have gotten a worse first round draw and Seth Davis (and get ready for a lot of other talking heads) picking us as the upset special has to help us. Looking at our match-ups:

a. SDSU goes 8 deep and are led by their front-court. Their best player is a freshman (positive). JP Prince guarding him is a good thing for us IMO. Their second best player is their PF -- Chism matched-up there is another positive for us. Their third best player is their Center, but he is not a big guy. He has only attempted 5 three pointers all year. He should have his hands full on the glass with Williams and Hall. Their two guards are a Junior at PG and a freshman at 2G. Again, you don't want to see guys at the guard positions in March with a lot of experience. The Junior has played a lot of minutes in his three years. The positive is that he is 6'0 167 pounds. Not the power PG that has often given us trouble. Also, their two starting guards are very good three point shooters, but they don't have other good three point shooters on their team. They also don't have a lot of size after you get passed their starters. Their sole bench guy in the post is 6'11 300 pound transfer from Illinois playing his first year at SDSU. We should zone this team and our length should bother their outside shooters (6'0 and 6'2), dominant the boards, and win going away if we focus. The question is focus.

b. Georgetown. Let's face it, Georgetown was playing like a 2 seed down the stretch. They are a very good basketball team, which I think is good for us. We will not get any respect, but 1 week ago a lot of folks would have had us ahead of them in their projected bracket. The problem with Georgetown is that they have a strong guard leading them in Austin Freeman. Georgetown also has size, but I have to say that Monroe sometimes plays less than he is capable. And we've seen Kansas and Kentucky. Georgetown doesn't have that kind of size. The other interesting thing about Georgetown is they go 9 deep, but every guy off their bench is a freshman. The Vols could beat them in bench scoring. Gtown is a lot like UT. We have our experience at guard, our big guy is our leader, and we go 9 deep. The difference is that Gtown's game includes some good three point shooting. But, we are the SEC's best at defending the three pointer.

c. Ironically, if we were to get out of the first weekend, we might be facing Ohio State again with the best player in the nation (again) to try to get past the Sweet 16. I'll say this -- I like the Ohio State match-up this time a lot better than the last time. But, let's face it, Ohio State may not make it to the Sweet 16. Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech are both capable of taking down Ohio State. The Big 10 is down this year and Ohio State is young at the guard positions (both freshmen).

d. I'm not sure Kansas will make it to the great 8. There is more parity this season than any other IMO. Michigan State and Maryland are both capable of pulling the Sweet 16 upset on the Jayhawks.

3. Bottom line is that the Vols have to bring it. It's all about match-ups and it is hard to complain about the match-ups we may have. They could be better, but we can beat any of these teams on the way to the Final four. Thankfully we are the flavor of the month pick for an upset. That has to work in the favor of a team that does a great job of overlooking teams like SDSU.

4. It is clear that the Selection Committee is not about integrity -- they are about television ratings. That's why teams like UT, Cornell, and Temple get screwed and teams like Wisconsin don't. Who wants to see Wisconsin play Georgetown? No one.
 
#4
#4
Just win baby win. Do we get a chip on our shoulder about the KY beatdown and the disrespect from the seeding committee? If we play with a purpose, we can go a long way. If our dobber stays down, we will leave early. We are capable of beating anyone on a given day. Problem is we can lose to lesser teams on a given day. We need Hopson to get hot, keep Chism out of foul trouble and knock down free throws.

We completely lost our composure against KY. Shots were not falling for us and KY who is not a great 3 point team couldn't miss. Was fatigue a factor? Maybe, maybe not, but we sure came unglued.

KY was really lucky to be MSU. Dogs couldn't make final free throws, the non call on the KY lane violation, and the unbelievable shots made at the end were lucky as hell. As many KY drives into MSU players and the few charging calls made was unbelievable also. Home cooking for the Cats.
 
#6
#6
My personal nightmare scenario was getting a 4 seed (which I feel we deserved) and facing Murray State in the first round. This is worse. Much worse.
 
#7
#7
The interesting thing about the KY beat-down is that it was a 6 point game with about 6 minutes to go. Our guys got fatigued, got down on themselves, and simply missed some looks. There are not a lot of teams in the nation that can turn a 6 point lead into a 29 point lead in 6 minutes. Kentucky can. It happens. I'm not real down on the team because of that. I'm a bit more concerned about the way we came out against LSU. We do that against SDSU and the game will be over at half-time.
 
#9
#9
Nobody mentioned SDSU free-throw issues.

They shoot 61.7% from the line (compared to our already bad 66.9%). They has to be in the bottom three worst teams in the tournament in that category. And since they are front-line heavy, you can assume we'll send them to the line alot.
 
#10
#10
Once we get past the ire of getting stuck with a 6 seed, I really have to like this draw. Georgetown was projected at a 4 or 5 10 days ago, a run in the Big East tournament really inflated their ranking. Matchup wise, I'd say they're not a whole lot tougher than Michigan State would've been. However, if we can beat them, rather than staring Kansas in the face, we have a legit shot at the Elite Eight. An Elite Eight run is a much bigger story than a second round loss (or even than a first round flameout), so I can't be too upset about a bracket that gives us potential to lose in the first two rounds but also gives us potential to make the regional final. It also provides motivation. People are picking us to be upset by SDSU, and that just makes me think we'll win it.
 
#11
#11
I also like the matchup with Ohio State. GA Tech is very capable of beating Ohio State. Ohio State is weak in the post and that favors GA Tech considerably. Georgetown turns the ball over a lot. If we can run on them then we have the advantage. Overall, this is much more exciting than Michigan State and then worrying about playing Kansas again.
 
#12
#12
Nobody mentioned SDSU free-throw issues.

They shoot 61.7% from the line (compared to our already bad 66.9%). They has to be in the bottom three worst teams in the tournament in that category. And since they are front-line heavy, you can assume we'll send them to the line alot.

Excellent point that I did not consider. The problem is Thomas shoots more free throws than any of them and he brings that down considerably. But I'm not sure how much we'll be sending him to the line. Leonard, their best player, and their two guards, shoot respectable 70, 72, and 71, but it does bring home your point. Most teams have a couple of guys that are 75+ FT shooters to get the ball to in the clutch. For instance, Chism is at 75% and Maze is at 82% (JP has been at 70% for the last 10 games). SDSU does not have a clutch guy like Maze. And with 70, 72, and 71 as your best guys at the line, it could be an adventure with anyone they send to the line.
 

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