That's one of the reasons they're overrated. To win the championship, you have to play well in 6 straight games, let a lone win them. UF has started to be more consistent over the last month, but in that time, they still have losses at home to UGA and at Vandy...
Also, from a seeding standpoint alone they're at a meaningful disadvantage. Their quadrant record should help seeding, but I don't think that UF is so much better than the other teams, especially Cincy, to overcompensate from that.
Put it this way, I don't think that if you held the tournament 20 times they would win it once. More like once in every 50. I mean, I think they SHOULD win Round 1 and have a decent shot at winning round 2 (I say that without knowing the opponents, but just generally). But winning against a S16 team? Then an E 8 team? And then two more games against a Villanova or someone? Nah.
So in that respect 20/1 is a bad bet.
As to UT, honestly, as a general proposition I'd say their odds to get to the S 16 are better because they are likely going to be a higher seed such that their competition in Rounds 1 and 2 is weaker than UF will see. So their odds of getting to the second weekend are at least slightly better.
But getting past Rounds 3 and 4? Beyond? No, I would put them in the same group as UF. And that would include teams like Kentucky, maybe second tier or middle teams from the Big 12. Wichita State, Cinci. I'd put all those teams in that group.
Without knowing your opponents, to get to the second weekend, I'd make you a bigger favorite than UF, like you at 8/5, UF at 3/1, maybe 4/1 because of the consistency issue.
But to win the whole thing, the real odds are probably just about the same for both UF and UT. Long.
