golfballs
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Giant Killers: These high seeds are in danger
So essentially... we need to score better from around the rim, or start shooting more 3s.
It has been a rocky year for the blue bloods. And it could get worse in March.
There's still some basketball to be played, and the difficulty of each team's path will crystallize on Selection Sunday, but right now, according to our Giant Killers model, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds most vulnerable in the second round are Kansas and North Carolina. That's based on Kansas' (No. 1 seed) chance to defeat each of the No. 8 or No. 9 seeds in the latest Bracketology and UNC's (No. 2 seed) chance against the No. 7 or No. 10 seeds.
After diving into the most dangerous Giant Killers a week ago, today we're examining tenuous Giants. Who is in danger of suffering a major upset early? Let's identify one possibility from each seed line.
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels
No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers have posted the 44th-best raw defensive efficiency this season, but after adjusting for opponent, that improves to fourth, ahead of teams such as Texas and Michigan State.No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes
Offensively the Volunteers are relatively efficient at knocking down 3-pointers, but they attempt them on only 35.5 percent of their overall field goal attempts, 230th in Division I, per KenPom. Inside the arc is where most of their shots come from and where they struggle efficiency-wise. If the Volunteers go far in the tournament, it could be on the back of Grant Williams, their opponent-adjusted win shares leader. Williams attempts post-ups often -- 7.7 times per game, the ninth-highest rate in Division I, per Synergy Sports -- converting them for .93 points per possession, slightly better than Tennessee's overall half-court offense.
All of the No. 3 seeds are in decent shape against the current crop of No. 14 seeds, but the Volunteers are the most vulnerable of the lot and would be best to avoid Northern Kentucky. Thanks in part to an advantage in the aforementioned field goals, the Norse would have a 23 percent chance to upend Tennessee.
No. 5 Rhode Island Rams
So essentially... we need to score better from around the rim, or start shooting more 3s.
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