Giant Killers: These high seeds are in danger

[golfballs]

Giant Killers: These high seeds are in danger

It has been a rocky year for the blue bloods. And it could get worse in March.

There's still some basketball to be played, and the difficulty of each team's path will crystallize on Selection Sunday, but right now, according to our Giant Killers model, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds most vulnerable in the second round are Kansas and North Carolina. That's based on Kansas' (No. 1 seed) chance to defeat each of the No. 8 or No. 9 seeds in the latest Bracketology and UNC's (No. 2 seed) chance against the No. 7 or No. 10 seeds.

After diving into the most dangerous Giant Killers a week ago, today we're examining tenuous Giants. Who is in danger of suffering a major upset early? Let's identify one possibility from each seed line.

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels
No. 3 Tennessee Volunteers

The Volunteers have posted the 44th-best raw defensive efficiency this season, but after adjusting for opponent, that improves to fourth, ahead of teams such as Texas and Michigan State.

Offensively the Volunteers are relatively efficient at knocking down 3-pointers, but they attempt them on only 35.5 percent of their overall field goal attempts, 230th in Division I, per KenPom. Inside the arc is where most of their shots come from and where they struggle efficiency-wise. If the Volunteers go far in the tournament, it could be on the back of Grant Williams, their opponent-adjusted win shares leader. Williams attempts post-ups often -- 7.7 times per game, the ninth-highest rate in Division I, per Synergy Sports -- converting them for .93 points per possession, slightly better than Tennessee's overall half-court offense.

All of the No. 3 seeds are in decent shape against the current crop of No. 14 seeds, but the Volunteers are the most vulnerable of the lot and would be best to avoid Northern Kentucky. Thanks in part to an advantage in the aforementioned field goals, the Norse would have a 23 percent chance to upend Tennessee.​

No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 5 Rhode Island Rams

So essentially... we need to score better from around the rim, or start shooting more 3s.

 

[LibertyVol]

The last time I remember that Tennessee was predicted to lose early in the NCAA tournament was the year the Vols made the Elite 8.

Might be a good sign of things to come.

 

[livefaith]

Giant Killers: These high seeds are in danger



So essentially... we need to score better from around the rim, or start shooting more 3s.

Maybe more like we're at risk of a loss if we run into a team that lights up the 3 ball and we can't outscore them.

 

[volnbama_]

The last time I remember that Tennessee was predicted to lose early in the NCAA tournament was the year the Vols made the Elite 8.

Might be a good sign of things to come.

I remember we were the trendy upset pick that year because San Diego St had Kawhi Leonard

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

I just want another shot at Auburn. No way we get worked in the paint like that again by anyone. Those teams from Alabama have just given us fits this year.

 

[Lefteye]

I just want another shot at Auburn. No way we get worked in the paint like that again by anyone. Those teams from Alabama have just given us fits this year.

Setting the record straight with Missouri would also be extra sweet.

 

[calban]

Are these the same people that picked us 13th conference?

 

[golfballs]

Are these the same people that picked us 13th conference?

Those are the idiots in the SEC media

 

[BigZiti09]

Those are the idiots in the SEC media

I think next year we should have a “predict the SEC standings” preseason thread.

I’ve always thought this board could do a better job than the jacklegs in the media.

 

[LibertyVol]

I think next year we should have a “predict the SEC standings” preseason thread.

I’ve always thought this board could do a better job than the jacklegs in the media.

I bet Tennessee will be picked higher than 13th next year.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Lol, I love how we go from scum of the SEC, to getting high praise everywhere, to now we're one of the high seeds that will get upset early.

 

[Lefteye]

Lol, I love how we go from scum of the SEC, to getting high praise everywhere, to now we're one of the high seeds that will get upset early.

We’re the ugly guy that just dumped the good looking cheer leader. And now all the hotties want some.

 

[TJ1985]

We're a team no one wants to play. We all know anything can happen in March, but I firmly believe we can make a deep run. The main thing that concerns me is getting matched up with a long, athletic team.

 

[Orangeblood98']

I mean they’re not wrong. But remember, this is March. Everything goes out the window including the number next to your name. These analyst can’t be taken seriously

 

[golfballs]

I mean they’re not wrong. But remember, this is March. Everything goes out the window including the number next to your name. These analyst can’t be taken seriously

Yeah, and the context is important... they had to pick one 3 seed even though they admit they’re all relatively safe.

 

[calban]

With a team this young an early exit could be possible.
A lot will depend on how much we've matured mentally.
Come out thinking that everyone doubted us and look how far we've come and it could be lights out.
On the other hand, Reset, think of it as the start of another season and come out as a solid group of seasoned Jrs and Srs and we could go FAR.

 

[wisvol22]

I remember we were the trendy upset pick that year because San Diego St had Kawhi Leonard

I remember we were a trendy upset pick in 2007 too against Long Beach State because they averaged over 80 ppg a game (which at the time was really good) and it was a classic 5-12 upset pick brackets needed. Tennessee proceeded to score the most points in first round history with 121.

 

[cncchris33]

I remember we were a trendy upset pick in 2007 too against Long Beach State because they averaged over 80 ppg a game (which at the time was really good) and it was a classic 5-12 upset pick brackets needed. Tennessee proceeded to score the most points in first round history with 121.

I'll never forget Pearl saying over the air on live radio to "take the over" the week leading up to the game. I believe it was on Jim Rome's show.

 

[kyvol98]

I think next year we should have a “predict the SEC standings” preseason thread.

I’ve always thought this board could do a better job than the jacklegs in the media.

My dog and 14 labeled milk bone treats could do better than the media.

 

[walkenvol]

Maybe more like we're at risk of a loss if we run into a team that lights up the 3 ball and we can't outscore them.

We've played 30 games and I don't recall anyone lighting it up with 3's....athletic guards driving to the hole and good offensive rebounding teams are the areas I've recalled giving us the most trouble? No stats to back up my impressions so TIFWIW

 

[cncchris33]

We've played 30 games and I don't recall anyone lighting it up with 3's....athletic guards driving to the hole and good offensive rebounding teams are the areas I've recalled giving us the most trouble? No stats to back up my impressions so TIFWIW

We have allowed a lot of teams to shoot well from 3. Our failure to defend the perimeter has been well-documented, in addition to the other deficiencies that you listed. We have done well in all those areas at different times, but not consistently throughout the season.

 

[jw0595]

Maybe more like we're at risk of a loss if we run into a team that lights up the 3 ball and we can't outscore them.

This is true but it can happen to any team at any time. It just happens more in the tournament because they have nothing to lose. Some team with 4 guards from Munchkinland comes out and starts throwing in threes like the hoop was six feet round. When that happens, just pack your crap and make your Disneyland reservations. There is remarkable parity this year and probably more than a dozen teams have a legitimate shot at winning it all. Due to the ability to play big boy basketball, the depth and the growth as a team I think UT is just as likely to go deep as they are to go home early.

It's going to be a great tournament!