Vols updated chances of a #1 seed

#1
bleedingTNorange

bleedingTNorange

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#1
With last nights big win obviously the chances went up, I still don’t see it happening but man it’s fun to think about. It’s also an incredible change to go from making bubble watch threads to hope teams on the bubble lose so we can sneak in to now hoping watching the Top 15 teams in the country hoping they lose to make a 1 or 2 seed more attainable for the Vols. GBO!!!


Tennessee’s chances of earning a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament improves after its win at Kentucky, per ESPN.

1 Villanova 99.9%
2 Virginia 99.3%
3 Purdue 98.6%
15 Tennessee 34.0%
9 Duke 25.6%
10 Kansas 10.4%
8 Auburn 9.8%
Click to expand...
 
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#2
#2
bleedingTNorange said:
With last nights big win obviously the chances went up, I still don’t see it happening but man it’s fun to think about. It’s also an incredible change to go from making bubble watch threads to hope teams on the bubble lose so we can sneak in to now hoping watching the Top 15 teams in the country hoping they lose to make a 1 or 2 seed more attainable for the Vols. GBO!!!
Click to expand...

Now we’re going to lose to a 16, be a national laughingstock, and it’s all your fault. You don’t get a cookie.

-TGO
 
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#3
#3
That is just remarkable. Assuming we win out, which I am almost willing to do, a one seed is very realistic. I find my mildly stunned just to type that.
 
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#4
#4
If we win Saturday I'm going to really start believing we can win out the regular season. The two toughest games remaining after that IMO are UF and at Miss St.
 
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#5
#5
I'm still confused as to why Auburn doesn't have better chances than they do. They still hold a 1.5 game lead in conference and don't have a seemingly tough schedule left. Is their overall SOS not too good? I know their BPI and RPI are good. What's the deal?
 
#6
#6
Cocke-y_Vol said:
I'm still confused as to why Auburn doesn't have better chances than they do. They still hold a 1.5 game lead in conference and don't have a seemingly tough schedule left. Is their overall SOS not too good? I know their BPI and RPI are good. What's the deal?
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Pretty much, their SOS is 57th
 
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#8
#8
Cocke-y_Vol said:
I'm still confused as to why Auburn doesn't have better chances than they do. They still hold a 1.5 game lead in conference and don't have a seemingly tough schedule left. Is their overall SOS not too good? I know their BPI and RPI are good. What's the deal?
Click to expand...

Auburn doesn't have an easy final 8 games.
 
#9
#9
Cocke-y_Vol said:
I'm still confused as to why Auburn doesn't have better chances than they do. They still hold a 1.5 game lead in conference and don't have a seemingly tough schedule left. Is their overall SOS not too good? I know their BPI and RPI are good. What's the deal?
Click to expand...

Auburn has had a really easy schedule to this point...gets much harder rest of the way. I fully expect them to drop two.
 
#10
#10
This week will pretty much say if Purdue gets a #1 seed. They have Ohio State home tonight and at Michigan State Saturday.
 
#12
#12
Cocke-y_Vol said:
I'm still confused as to why Auburn doesn't have better chances than they do. They still hold a 1.5 game lead in conference and don't have a seemingly tough schedule left. Is their overall SOS not too good? I know their BPI and RPI are good. What's the deal?
Click to expand...

They have a much tougher slate to close the season than Tennessee so they are expected to drop a few...with each game they win their percentages will increase while ours decrease.
 
#18
#18
I don't understand why Auburn wouldn't have a better chance at a #1 seed than us. No way we can be a 1 seed without winning the SEC and I can't see Auburn losing enough
 
#19
#19
BruinVol said:
I don't understand why Auburn wouldn't have a better chance at a #1 seed than us. No way we can be a 1 seed without winning the SEC and I can't see Auburn losing enough
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I think the thread covered it. If they keep winning, they will have a better shot than us, but apparently ESPN thinks they're going to drop some.

I tend to agree but I don't know if they'll drop enough for us to catch them.
 
#20
#20
BruinVol said:
I don't understand why Auburn wouldn't have a better chance at a #1 seed than us. No way we can be a 1 seed without winning the SEC and I can't see Auburn losing enough
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They’re projected auburn to lose 2 or 3 games over their final 8 while they project Tennessee go only drop 1 or almost a coin flip to run the table.

As I said earlier, if auburn runs the table they will get the 1 seed...their odds of running it just aren’t very good according to these computers.
 
#21
#21
VolsSportsFan said:
I think the thread covered it. If they keep winning, they will have a better shot than us, but apparently ESPN thinks they're going to drop some.

I tend to agree but I don't know if they'll drop enough for us to catch them.
Click to expand...

Idk about BPI which is who’s projecting these 1 seed percentages, but Sagarin’s model says Auburn goes 5-3 down the stretch to finish conference play at 14-4...so if Tennessee goes 6-1 down the stretch they’d be tied atop the SEC.
 
#22
#22
bleedingTNorange said:
Idk about BPI which is who’s projecting these 1 seed percentages, but Sagarin’s model says Auburn goes 5-3 down the stretch to finish conference play at 14-4...so if Tennessee goes 6-1 down the stretch they’d be tied atop the SEC.
Click to expand...

Raise the banner!
 
#23
#23
BruinVol said:
I don't understand why Auburn wouldn't have a better chance at a #1 seed than us. No way we can be a 1 seed without winning the SEC and I can't see Auburn losing enough
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It takes into account the possibility of winning your remaining games, and your current BPI. Tennessee has a higher BPI, and a higher percentage chance of winning their remaining games.
 
#24
#24
I don’t believe for a second we win out. It’s basketball, nobody wins out! We could be favored in every game, doesn’t matter, we don’t win out. Sometimes the shots don’t fall, you get fouls on key players, you don’t make your free throws. It happens. I would be smiling with a 3 seed. It’s all gravy after that...
 
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#25
#25
tennesseecoyote said:
I don’t believe for a second we win out. It’s basketball, nobody wins out! Sometimes the shots don’t fall, you get fouls on key players, you don’t make your free throws. It happens. I would be smiling with a 3 seed. It’s all gravy after that...
Click to expand...

Based on preseason projections/expectations, anything beyond simple making the tourney is gravy, as far as I'm concerned.
 
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