Scouting The Battle 4 Atlantis

#1

IndianapolisVol

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#1
This tournament has the potential to pad our NCAA Tournament resume and our regular season win total. Let's hear some predictions and discuss where everyone thinks we will finish.

We open against Purdue 2 weeks from tomorrow on the 22nd. Purdue lost PF Caleb Swanigan who was drafted in the 1st round but returns its next 6 leading scorers from last season including 7'2" Center Issac Haas. Matt Painter had this team averaging the most PPG in the Big 10 last season and a large part of that was a balanced 9-10 man rotation. Purdue shoots at a high percentage from all over the floor and guys like Vince Edwards, Dakota Mathias and Ryan Cline can score points in a hurry from beyond the arc.

With that said, I think we can match their depth and I think Rick will rely on constant substitutions to take advantages of mismatches in short spurts, especially at the 3, 4 and 5 spots. If the exhibitions have been any indication, Rick is not afraid to make adjustments on the low post 45-60 seconds at a time to keep our guys fresh and prevent our opposition from making in-game adjustments for any one combination of guys.

A win against this team would give our guys an early confidence boost and could be a difference maker at the end of the year if we find ourselves on the bubble.

As balanced as Purdue's roster is, replacing Swanigan's 18.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game will be a chore. Their biggest advantage will be their experience. For the amount of points they can put up, this team plays very under-control. That said, Painter will probably have them push the tempo early to build the lead if they start to pull ahead in the first half. If the game stays close they will rely on their perimeter shooters to score in quick spurts. This team has a lot of unselfish players and they will pass their way out of zone pressure or when they draw a double team. As with years past, pressure defense and dominating the boards are two staples of Painter's game plan. Their biggest weakness last year was defending slashing guards and wing players who could drive to the basket and score in the paint when Swanigan was out of the game.

Overall I think we have a lot better chance to win this game than most analysts and experts will predict. The biggest key for us down the stretch will be keeping the game close and giving a guy like Admiral opportunities to penetrate the perimeter defense. A big bodied slasher like him will either draw the double team down low and pass into an uncontested layup on the post or have a one-on-one matchup against a smaller guard in the paint.

What does everyone else think?

Anyone have any knowledge on Nova, WKU, Zona, or NC State?
 
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#2
#2
We play Purdue and then either Villanova or WKU, and then our final game will be against SMU/UNI/Arizona/Nc State.

My prediction is we lose to Purdue and then play Western Kentucky and Nc State.

Our path to 2 wins is likely easier with a loss to Purdue, but we would likely play a tougher slate if we were to beat Purdue.
 
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#3
#3
We play Purdue and then either Villanova or WKU, and then our final game will be against SMU/UNI/Arizona/Nc State.

My prediction is we lose to Purdue and then play Western Kentucky and Nc State.

Our path to 2 wins is likely easier with a loss to Purdue, but we would likely play a tougher slate if we were to beat Purdue.

2-1 would be great.
 
#5
#5
Just me, but I prefer the win over Purdue. The tougher slate even with a loss would bolster the already much better than average SOS. would mean a lot more in March than the extra win.
But, that's just me.
 
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#6
#6
Just me, but I prefer the win over Purdue. The tougher slate even with a loss would bolster the already much better than average SOS. would mean a lot more in March than the extra win.
But, that's just me.

Agreed. Also, those other 2 matchups are definitely not guaranteed wins.
 
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#7
#7
Agreed. Also, those other 2 matchups are definitely not guaranteed wins.

We almost beat UNC last season. Even williams admitted his team was lucky to win.
Biggest upsets usually come early in the season. We get the luck on our side and pull off a win against Nova and our guys would be hard to beat down the stretch.
 
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#8
#8
We almost beat UNC last season. Even williams admitted his team was lucky to win.
Biggest upsets usually come early in the season. We get the luck on our side and pull off a win against Nova and our guys would be hard to beat down the stretch.

Those wins are BIG come selection sunday.

Cuonzo's team doesn't make it in without that win over Virginia before they found themselves.

We need to take advantage and steal a couple wins in the non conference games.
 
#13
#13
Not much at this point.
All I know is that UNC State's having trouble getting a transfer from OH State eligible.
Looks like he's going to have to sit out a year.
 
#14
#14
1-2 with a win over a top 25 team is better than 2-1 with two easier teams. I think that is pretty clear come NCAA selection time.
 
#15
#15
1-2 with a win over a top 25 team is better than 2-1 with two easier teams. I think that is pretty clear come NCAA selection time.

Big difference between 15-15/16-14 and 16-14/17-13...with our SOS if we get to 17 wins there are going to be some good wins on the resume.
 
#16
#16
Big difference between 15-15/16-14 and 16-14/17-13...with our SOS if we get to 17 wins there are going to be some good wins on the resume.

It could be that way but RPI and quality wins is More important that total wins In a majority of cases. 1-2 against high quality teams would be huge with all 3 being at a neutral site.
 
#17
#17
It could be that way but RPI and quality wins is More important that total wins In a majority of cases. 1-2 against high quality teams would be huge with all 3 being at a neutral site.

If our SOS wasn't so good I would agree...we have the #1 schedule pre-season suited to the new NCAAT committees format. This is the first year of the new formatted resume that weighs sites differently, Tennessee will have tons of opportunities to notch quality wins.

Basically...I would be ok with dropping saying Georgia Tech and adding another mid major game, same concept as what I'm referring to with Atlantis.
 
#18
#18
If our SOS wasn't so good I would agree...we have the #1 schedule pre-season suited to the new NCAAT committees format. This is the first year of the new formatted resume that weighs sites differently, Tennessee will have tons of opportunities to notch quality wins.

Basically...I would be ok with dropping saying Georgia Tech and adding another mid major game, same concept as what I'm referring to with Atlantis.

#1 SOS? Not doubting you but do you have a link on that?
 
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#19
#19
If our SOS wasn't so good I would agree...we have the #1 schedule pre-season suited to the new NCAAT committees format. This is the first year of the new formatted resume that weighs sites differently, Tennessee will have tons of opportunities to notch quality wins.

Basically...I would be ok with dropping saying Georgia Tech and adding another mid major game, same concept as what I'm referring to with Atlantis.

What's the new weighing procedure?
 
#21
#21
What's the new weighing procedure?

https://heatcheckcbb.com/2017/10/30/tennessee-has-more-chances-than-any-other-team-to-make-the-ncaa-tournament/

In short, the committee used some common sense for once.

A win on the road is harder than a win on a neutral site which are both tougher than win at home...so they're weighted to give more credit to wins on road or neutral site than at home. Where in years past a top 50 win was a top 50 win, whether home/away/neutral.
 
#22
#22
I think we beat Purdue and play Villanova in the next round and go 2 and 1 in this tournament.
 
#24
#24
I think the Vols go 2-1. Lose round 1 beat WKU in round 2 and then win game 3. WKU is pretty solid and Stansbury does a good job coaching. One of the local kids around the Lexington area in KY is starting for WKU, Hollingsworth, and has a chance to be a real good one the next four years in Bowling Green.
 

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