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Old 02-15-2017, 12:40 PM   #1
SeniorDrill
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Interesting Bracketology Odds

Lots of info on the upcoming NCAA tournament and the odds of getting in with projected records. "Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself."
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-to.../bracketology/
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:47 PM   #2
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So this shows that if we lose to USCe and win out asides from an additional loss in SEC tourney (17-14) we would have a 26% chance of receiving a bid.
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:56 PM   #3
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Unless I am reading that wrong that is worthless. It says Belmont has a 74% to get an at large if they lose the ovc tourney. That's ridiculous
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:59 PM   #4
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So this shows that if we lose to USCe and win out asides from an additional loss in SEC tourney (17-14) we would have a 26% chance of receiving a bid.
It says if we lose to USCjr as well as another game during our last 5, making us 17-14, we have a 26% chance of making the tournament. I agree with that statement 100%.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:00 PM   #5
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I think it is showing Belmont's overall percentage for them to get a bid is 74%, which includes them getting a bid by winning conference tourney (57%), without conf tourney auto bid they would then have a 74-57=17% chance of at large bid.

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Old 02-15-2017, 01:00 PM   #6
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Unless I am reading that wrong that is worthless. It says Belmont has a 74% to get an at large if they lose the ovc tourney. That's ridiculous
Exactly. Belmont doesn't win the OVCT, they're headed to the NIT.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:01 PM   #7
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It says if we lose to USCjr as well as another game during our last 5, making us 17-14, we have a 26% chance of making the tournament. I agree with that statement 100%.
No, I think it includes an SEC tournament loss not an additional regular season loss, otherwise we would have 15 losses.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:03 PM   #8
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No, I think it includes an SEC tournament loss not an additional regular season loss, otherwise we would have 15 losses.
Kentucky has 5 games left and those projections are if they have only 5 games left without the SEC Tournament. I am assuming they would think they would win the SEC tourney which would give them a few more wins than projected. I do not think these projections include any conference tourneys.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:06 PM   #9
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Kentucky has 5 games left and those projections are if they have only 5 games left without the SEC Tournament. I am assuming they would think they would win the SEC tourney which would give them a few more wins than projected. I do not think these projections include any conference tourneys.
They are stating that UK has 47% chance of getting the "auto bid" in other words winning SEC tournament.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:07 PM   #10
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They are stating that UK has 47% chance of getting the "auto bid" in other words winning SEC tournament.
I understand but in their final win-loss protections it seems only the regular season records are projected.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:07 PM   #11
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Kentucky has 5 games left and those projections are if they have only 5 games left without the SEC Tournament. I am assuming they would think they would win the SEC tourney which would give them a few more wins than projected. I do not think these projections include any conference tourneys.
But if we lose 2 more and then a 3rd at SEC tournament I think we have 0% chance of making field, not 24%.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:08 PM   #12
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I understand but in their final win-loss protections it seems only the regular season records are projected.
Yeah I guess you're right, if we lose 3 more including SEC tournament no way we make the field.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:14 PM   #13
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I think it is showing Belmont's overall percentage for them to get a bid is 74%, which includes them getting a bid by winning conference tourney (57%), without conf tourney auto bid they would then have a 74-57=17% chance of at large bid.
17% is 17 to high For them and an at large.


They are counting the chaminade as a win in that 17-14 total
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:19 PM   #14
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After looking at it, I think it projects our odds of making the tournament today not after their projected win/loss total. Our projected win loss total is 17-14 and our projected seed is blank because we aren't in. I think that as of today we have a 24% chance of making the field, which I agree with.
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Old 02-15-2017, 02:06 PM   #15
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I guess we'll just have to win the SEC tournament.
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