UT's road to the NCAA tourney

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
I normally would make fun of any of you for creating this thread, but what the hey, I'm feeling optimistic for you after the KY win, so here goes....

You are 11-11, and 4-5 in the conference. Typically, you need to be at least .500 in regular season conference play, meaning 9-9, and you need 20 wins overall, to get consideration. Sometimes you can do it with 19 wins, or rarely 18, but I'm going to assume from an unremarkable SOS that you need 20.

You usually can get to 20 wins by including the SEC tournament.

Remaining schedule:

@ Arky
Aub
@ Miz
@ UK
LSU
@ S Car
Arky
@ Van
Ole Miss

I'm assuming the Ky and S Carolina games are going into the L column. That means you have 7 winnable games left. If you win 5 of them, you get to 9-9 in the conference.

But that gives you only 16 wins. Not enough. You need to get to 18 regular season, plus two in the SEC tourney. You need to win them all. OR, you need to win 6 of the 7 winnable games, plus three in the SEC tournament.
 
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#2
#2
lawgator1 said:
I normally would make fun of any of you for creating this thread, but what the hey, I'm feeling optimistic for you after the KY win, so here goes....

You are 11-11, and 4-5 in the conference. Typically, you need to be at least .500 in regular season conference play, meaning 9-9, and you need 20 wins overall, to get consideration. Sometimes you can do it with 19 wins, or rarely 18, but I'm going to assume from an unremarkable SOS that you need 20.

You usually can get to 20 wins by including the SEC tournament.

Remaining schedule:

@ Arky
Aub
@ Miz
@ UK
LSU
@ S Car
Arky
@ Van
Ole Miss

I'm assuming the Ky and S Carolina games are going into the L column. That means you have 7 winnable games left. If you win 5 of them, you get to 9-9 in the conference.

But that gives you only 16 wins. Not enough. You need to get to 18 regular season, plus two in the SEC tourney. You need to win them all. OR, you need to win 6 of the 7 winnable games, plus three in the SEC tournament.
Click to expand...

You're right about this being optimistic, and while I do agree that it's possible, there is just no way that the Vols win the games they need to. Tennessee beating UK last night has nothing to do with the team suddenly being better, we just had a good match up at home against a slumping team. I mean I really did expect to win that game. However those nights don't happen often.

We'll most likely lose most of those away games, as well as at home against LSU. Hopefully we can have a good SEC tournament run but as far as the NCAA goes, this team just isn't cut out for it.
 
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#3
#3
lawgator1 said:
I normally would make fun of any of you for creating this thread, but what the hey, I'm feeling optimistic for you after the KY win, so here goes....

You are 11-11, and 4-5 in the conference. Typically, you need to be at least .500 in regular season conference play, meaning 9-9, and you need 20 wins overall, to get consideration. Sometimes you can do it with 19 wins, or rarely 18, but I'm going to assume from an unremarkable SOS that you need 20.

You usually can get to 20 wins by including the SEC tournament.

Remaining schedule:

@ Arky
Aub
@ Miz
@ UK
LSU
@ S Car
Arky
@ Van
Ole Miss

I'm assuming the Ky and S Carolina games are going into the L column. That means you have 7 winnable games left. If you win 5 of them, you get to 9-9 in the conference.

But that gives you only 16 wins. Not enough. You need to get to 18 regular season, plus two in the SEC tourney. You need to win them all. OR, you need to win 6 of the 7 winnable games, plus three in the SEC tournament.
Click to expand...

7 wins gives us 18 total wins, not 16. But you've got a UF education, so I won't hold it against you.
 
#4
#4
griffdog14 said:
You're right about this being optimistic, and while I do agree that it's possible, there is just no way that the Vols win the games they need to. Tennessee beating UK last night has nothing to do with the team suddenly being better, we just had a good match up at home against a slumping team. I mean I really did expect to win that game. However those nights don't happen often.

We'll most likely lose most of those away games, as well as at home against LSU. Hopefully we can have a good SEC tournament run but as far as the NCAA goes, this team just isn't cut out for it.
Click to expand...


It is possible but not likely!
 
#5
#5
We're an awful, awful away team. We are 1-7 away from home, not including the 0-3 at Neutral arenas. I'm going to go out on a pessimistic limb and say there's no way in hell we get two more road wins. If I'm wrong, I will gladly eat crow. My prediction

lawgator1 said:
@ Arky W
Aub W
@ Miz W
@ UK L
LSU L
@ S Car L
Arky W
@ Van L
Ole Miss W
Click to expand...
 
#6
#6
6-3 is the absolute best that I think we finish.
If we then won 2 games in the sec tourney, we may push for a bid.
However, I'd be happy with a NIT this year
 
#7
#7
Get us to the NIT this year and I'll be happy. I don't see us winning..

@ Arkansas
@ UK
@ South Carolina
@ Vandy

LSU is winnable because they have one of the worst coaches in the SEC. Simmons will put up a solid stat line though.
 
#8
#8
No matter how well we might finish up, we don't have a single out-of-conference win over a decent team. The selection committee gets wood over big wins over high-ranking teams outside the conference. We won't have the metrics to impress them enough to get a tourney nod.
 
#9
#9
I'd like to finish the regular season with a winning record. Beating Arkansas and Vandy on the road would be decent upsets.
 
#10
#10
This thread is cracking me up. Proud this team stepped up and beat KY last night but they lost any chance at the big dance by blowing large leads to Bama, TA&M, TCU and UGA
 
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#13
#13
If we had won the A & M, Bama and TCU games then I'd be slightly intrigued. However, the reason we lost those games is because we're not a NCAA team. Get to the NIT this year with this roster and it's a success IMO.
 
#14
#14
Simply put...

Vols have to go 6-3 to have even a discussion about this topic heading into the SECT...



Remaining schedule:

@ Arky
Aub
@ Miz
@ UK
LSU
@ S Car
Arky
@ Van
Ole Miss
 
#16
#16
bleedingTNorange said:
Simply put...

Vols have to go 6-3 to have even a discussion about this topic heading into the SECT...



Remaining schedule:

@ Arky
Aub
@ Miz
@ UK
LSU
@ S Car
Arky
@ Van
Ole Miss
Click to expand...

I don't even know if that's enough unless if some of those wins are @ UK and @ South Carolina. Because we don't really have a good out of conference win.

Regardless, a win over UK made this season for me and just making the NIT will be enough this year for me. I'm wearing my orange proud up here today and getting all kinds of bad looks and comments, but I love it! Lol
 
#18
#18
UT's road to the NCAA tourney is under construction and won't be open until next season.
 
Last edited:
#19
#19
I think we lose 5-6 more games. Regardless, the only chance this team has of dancing is to pull a UGA and win the SECT. Nice to dream I guess.
 
#20
#20
IndianapolisVol said:
7 wins gives us 18 total wins, not 16. But you've got a UF education, so I won't hold it against you.
Click to expand...

Except he was right. He said 7 games are winnable, but if we win 5 of them that only gives us 16 wins.

I guess the UF education is better after all?
 
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#22
#22
I see way too many road games (for a team that has won one of them all season) to even be having this discussion. Let's steal a couple on the road and hold serve at home, then we'll have this talk.
 
#24
#24
Stoked said:
I don't even know if that's enough unless if some of those wins are @ UK and @ South Carolina. Because we don't really have a good out of conference win.
Click to expand...

Well I did say "to even have this discussion" so I started that record by saying at the very minimum and it still may not be enough. 6-3 puts us at 17-14 heading into the SECT, we could theoretically go 3-1 in the SECT which would get us to that 20 win mark which would at least have us being mentioned as near the bubble.
 
#25
#25
bigeasy said:
Except he was right. He said 7 games are winnable, but if we win 5 of them that only gives us 16 wins.

I guess the UF education is better after all?
Click to expand...

I saw the post calling me out and, rather than re-do the math, I assumed he was right.
 
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