Simulating the Vols 14-15 Season

#1
golfballs

golfballs

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#1
Dave Hanner is an economist and basketball fan who had been publishing material similar to KenPom over the years for the now defunct Basketball Prospectus. This year he teamed up with SI's Luke Winn to rank every team based on a simulation ran 10,000 times across the entire season.

They rank Tennessee 77th with a projected finish 11th in the SEC.

Ranking the top teams in college basketball: 351-1 - College Basketball - SI.com

However, they don't publish win totals or game by game results. So I decided to use use their ratings (offensive and defensive efficiency) and do it myself. The result for the Vols is a record of 15-13 and 8-10 in the SEC. It doesn't include early-season tourneys or the postseason. The results are below:

Tennessee vs VCU L 78-71 25%
Tennessee vs Texas Southern W 81-69 90%
Tennessee vs Santa Clara W 76-71 70%
Tennessee vs Kansas St. L 72-67 37%
Tennessee vs Butler W 71-70 64%
Tennessee at North Carolina St. L 74-73 37%
Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech W 80-69 89%
Tennessee vs Mercer W 75-68 81%
Tennessee vs Tennessee St. W 82-62 97%
Tennessee vs East Tennessee St. W 81-72 83%

Tennessee at Mississippi St. W 75-71 59%
Tennessee vs Alabama W 68-66 52%
Tennessee vs Arkansas L 82-76 38%
Tennessee at Missouri L 73-71 48%
Tennessee at South Carolina L 74-74 41%
Tennessee vs Texas A&M W 68-68 58%
Tennessee at Arkansas L 82-76 25%
Tennessee vs Auburn W 75-75 58%
Tennessee vs Mississippi St. W 75-71 73%
Tennessee at Georgia L 71-70 38%
Tennessee at Vanderbilt W 70-67 53%
Tennessee vs LSU L 75-73 47%
Tennessee vs Kentucky L 81-68 14%
Tennessee at Mississippi L 78-76 36%
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt W 70-67 68%
Tennessee at Florida L 76-66 11%
Tennessee at LSU L 75-73 32%
Tennessee vs South Carolina W 74-74 57%
 
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#4
#4
golfballs said:
Dave Hanner is an economist and basketball fan who had been publishing material similar to KenPom over the years for the now defunct Basketball Prospectus. This year he teamed up with SI's Luke Winn to rank every team based on a simulation ran 10,000 times across the entire season.

They rank Tennessee 77th with a projected finish 11th in the SEC.

Ranking the top teams in college basketball: 351-1 - College Basketball - SI.com

However, they don't publish win totals or game by game results. So I decided to use use their ratings (offensive and defensive efficiency) and do it myself. The result for the Vols is a record of 15-13 and 8-10 in the SEC. It doesn't include early-season tourneys or the postseason. The results are below:

Tennessee vs VCU L 78-71 25%
Tennessee vs Texas Southern W 81-69 90%
Tennessee vs Santa Clara W 76-71 70%
Tennessee vs Kansas St. L 72-67 37%
Tennessee vs Butler W 71-70 64%
Tennessee at North Carolina St. L 74-73 37%
Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech W 80-69 89%
Tennessee vs Mercer W 75-68 81%
Tennessee vs Tennessee St. W 82-62 97%
Tennessee vs East Tennessee St. W 81-72 83%

Tennessee at Mississippi St. W 75-71 59%
Tennessee vs Alabama W 68-66 52%
Tennessee vs Arkansas L 82-76 38%
Tennessee at Missouri L 73-71 48%
Tennessee at South Carolina L 74-74 41%
Tennessee vs Texas A&M W 68-68 58%
Tennessee at Arkansas L 82-76 25%
Tennessee vs Auburn W 75-75 58%
Tennessee vs Mississippi St. W 75-71 73%
Tennessee at Georgia L 71-70 38%
Tennessee at Vanderbilt W 70-67 53%
Tennessee vs LSU L 75-73 47%
Tennessee vs Kentucky L 81-68 14%
Tennessee at Mississippi L 78-76 36%
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt W 70-67 68%
Tennessee at Florida L 76-66 11%
Tennessee at LSU L 75-73 32%
Tennessee vs South Carolina W 74-74 57%
Click to expand...

These three a coin flip?
 
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#5
#5
Does the simulator know at what point in the season Tyndall gets the ax for NCAA show-cause?
 
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#7
#7
8-10 in the SEC is miserable. Imagine if we played in a good basketball conference. At least everyone's expectations for the season are lowered this year. I had high hopes with the crew last year, but no one will bat an eye if we go 8-10 this year.
 
#8
#8
For a school rich in tradition in the best conference in America, and seemingly unlimited resources, we sure are a dumpster fire of an athletic department. We have underachieved in virtually every sport that wears a uniform. I will always be loyal to the Big Orange but we have messes everywhere that will take years to clean up, and sometimes its just flat out depressing.
 
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#10
#10
DT might be suspended for a few games too, but 15 wins is a realistic win total
 
#11
#11
I think the goal should be north of a 50% win total overall and in sec play.
 
#17
#17
It is what it is.

If Tyndall gets this team to the NCAA Tourney he's coach of the year
 
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#20
#20
fade route said:
For a school rich in tradition in the best conference in America, and seemingly unlimited resources, we sure are a dumpster fire of an athletic department. We have underachieved in virtually every sport that wears a uniform. I will always be loyal to the Big Orange but we have messes everywhere that will take years to clean up, and sometimes its just flat out depressing.
Click to expand...

Tell that to the baseball team. Serrano is the best coach on Campus.
 
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#21
#21
golfballs said:
Dave Hanner is an economist and basketball fan who had been publishing material similar to KenPom over the years for the now defunct Basketball Prospectus. This year he teamed up with SI's Luke Winn to rank every team based on a simulation ran 10,000 times across the entire season.

They rank Tennessee 77th with a projected finish 11th in the SEC.

Ranking the top teams in college basketball: 351-1 - College Basketball - SI.com

However, they don't publish win totals or game by game results. So I decided to use use their ratings (offensive and defensive efficiency) and do it myself. The result for the Vols is a record of 15-13 and 8-10 in the SEC. It doesn't include early-season tourneys or the postseason. The results are below:

Tennessee vs VCU L 78-71 25%
Tennessee vs Texas Southern W 81-69 90%
Tennessee vs Santa Clara W 76-71 70%
Tennessee vs Kansas St. L 72-67 37%
Tennessee vs Butler W 71-70 64%
Tennessee at North Carolina St. L 74-73 37%
Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech W 80-69 89%
Tennessee vs Mercer W 75-68 81%
Tennessee vs Tennessee St. W 82-62 97%
Tennessee vs East Tennessee St. W 81-72 83%

Tennessee at Mississippi St. W 75-71 59%
Tennessee vs Alabama W 68-66 52%
Tennessee vs Arkansas L 82-76 38%
Tennessee at Missouri L 73-71 48%
Tennessee at South Carolina L 74-74 41%
Tennessee vs Texas A&M W 68-68 58%
Tennessee at Arkansas L 82-76 25%
Tennessee vs Auburn W 75-75 58%
Tennessee vs Mississippi St. W 75-71 73%
Tennessee at Georgia L 71-70 38%
Tennessee at Vanderbilt W 70-67 53%
Tennessee vs LSU L 75-73 47%
Tennessee vs Kentucky L 81-68 14%
Tennessee at Mississippi L 78-76 36%
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt W 70-67 68%
Tennessee at Florida L 76-66 11%
Tennessee at LSU L 75-73 32%
Tennessee vs South Carolina W 74-74 57%
Click to expand...

Interesting. Would love to predict but I have zero clue what this team looks like. Looking forward to watching these guys.
 
#24
#24
golfballs said:
Why not shoot higher? It's a failure if we don't make the sweet 16
Click to expand...

I consider every yr we make a tourney as a success and a chance to make a sweet sixteen or more....it doesn't matter when we lose I'm always disappointed.
 
#25
#25
I just finished simulating the Orlando Classic.

Tennessee has a 5.32% chance of winning.

Compared to:
Kansas - 58.36%
Michigan St - 27.25%
Marquette - 4.56%
Rhode Island - 1.86%
Georgia Tech - 1.58%
Santa Clara - 0.76%
Rider - 0.31%

The Vols are expected to win 2 games in the tournament. They have the highest odds of winning the 3rd place game at 29%. Next is Marquette at 21%.
 
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