If, and its a big if we can make a final four run or even better, and Stokes continues to play like he has in the tourney so far and keeps putting up big numbers he would be foolish to return for his senior season. If all of the above happens his draft stock will probably never be higher than it will be after this year. It will be very difficult to put up numbers like that next year, much less better them. Sure I would love to have him one more year, and I think if he does come back we have a pretty good chance to make the tourney again next year considering the way Richardson has been playing and the improvements he has made this year...add a healthy Robert Hubbs to that and hopefully an improved Thompson and we have a little shot at the SEC title next year.
Florida will lose a lot to graduation but should still be pretty good because of the recruits they have coming in. UK is projected to lose 5 players within the top 40 picks of the NBA draft, so they will lose even more but have an even better class coming in than Florida. Nevertheless, if we get Stokes back I will like the senior leadership and players this team would have next year. Problem is I just really don't see Stokes coming back with the way he is playing now and on a big stage. But who could blame him?
So IMO we will be really fighting to get a tourney bid next year and that could even be with Stokes. Without him I think we only win something like 15-18 games next year and probably in the NIT. With him I think we could win 18-22 and be fighting right on the bubble again to make the tourney, best case scenario. Next year is going to be tough any way you look at it. So he would be smart to leave imo.