Vegas Wise-Guys' Best Sunday Bets

[golfballs]

Wichita State Shockers over Kentucky Wildcats among best tourney bets for Sunday - College Basketball - ESPN

No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers versus No. 14 Mercer Bears

LVH line: Tennessee minus-8.5

As I wrote in Saturday's piece, I love this round because after filling out a ton of brackets earlier in the week, I've already handicapped most potential matchups in advance and have had the chance to watch both teams in action and project how they'll match up. Well, I admit I didn't look ahead to this matchup until Mercer pulled off its upset of Duke. Like most people, I think I was guilty of overrating the Blue Devils.

The argument can be made that both these teams were underseeded, but even though we probably had Mercer too low, the Vegas Rankings we did heading into the tournament still had Tennessee 10 points better than Mercer. We can upgrade the Bears, but the Vols would have to be upgraded, as well. This number just looks a little short to take the 'dog.

ATS pick: Tennessee

...

Tennessee Volunteers (minus-8) over Mercer Bears

In ESPN Insider's Best Tourney Bets for Saturday article, we contributed a Round of 32 betting system from our Bet Labs software with a 57.1 percent ATS win rate since 2005. This system takes advantage of larger favorites when teams have less time to devise a game plan and prepare for their opponents. It's surprising to see a No. 11 seed as such a large favorite, but Tennessee now gets to reap the benefits of Mercer's upset of Duke in the Round of 64. Our system likes favorites of greater than five points, and we'll gladly lay the points with the Vols, especially when we also get to fade Mercer's over-performance in its previous game.

 

[golfballs]

makes me even more nervous :no:

 

[rocky200663]

The sharps must have liked it because they steamed Tennessee at -7.5. Go Vols!

 

[peerless98]

We certainly don't need to get eliminated by Mercer again.

 

[orangeluvr]

We certainly don't need to get eliminated by Mercer again.

75 -67 at TBA in the 2013 NIT (Not In the Tournament} :crazy:

 

[Chris4Vols22]

75 -67 at TBA in the 2013 NIT (Not In the Tournament} :crazy:

That game has absolutely 0 implications for today. We were a different team with a different mindset back then.

 

[vol_in_ar]

Wichita State Shockers over Kentucky Wildcats among best tourney bets for Sunday - College Basketball - ESPN


...

Glad there favored, I'm not betting them, so just win (even by 1) and make Big Orange Nation happy

 

[Exfix]

The sharps must have liked it because they steamed Tennessee at -7.5. Go Vols!

No was the opposite. Opened at 8.5 most places and moved to 8 or 7.5. Everyone taking Mercer. Swinging back the other way now. The play, according to my "Vegas insiders" is Mercer.

 

[Sudden Impact]

makes me even more nervous :no:

Yea I know....wish they hadn't done that....

 

[kevino]

As long as we come out with the proper mindset we should win. I can't imagine the guys over looking anyone in the tournament

 

[Freak]

I think Mercer proved they are capable of playing the underdog role.

Anyone else starting to get pre-game jitters?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think Mercer proved they are capable of playing the underdog role.

Anyone else starting to get pre-game jitters?

No doubt

 

[Souce]

I think Mercer proved they are capable of playing the underdog role.

Anyone else starting to get pre-game jitters?

I think they have a cream for that. Apply liberally.

 

[SpringBokVol]

I think Mercer proved they are capable of playing the underdog role.

Anyone else starting to get pre-game jitters?

Full on. I much prefer the dog role.

 

[vol_in_ar]

I think Mercer proved they are capable of playing the underdog role.

Anyone else starting to get pre-game jitters?

not yet, but after Kansas went down, I need KY to beat Witchita

 

[HBCButch]

Wichita State Shockers over Kentucky Wildcats among best tourney bets for Sunday - College Basketball - ESPN


...

Tennessee will shine. They will get the job done. They are the Cinderella and nobody knows it.