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Let me paraphrase this. It is not going to be easy. Tennessee must win three games in five days against solid teams. According to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com (here is the link on how they calculate their odds: FiveThirtyEight | Building a Bracket Is Hard This Year, But We’ll Help You Play the Odds) Tennessee has a 12% chance to get to the Sweet Sixteen. Those aren't good odds by any means. Yet Tennessee has the ability to make some noise this year. What are the keys? Let's break it down.
1. Antonio Barton must play well.
If you want to play a fun drinking game, take a shot when you hear something to this extent: "In order to advance in the tournament, you must have good guard play!". You'll be hammered within three hours, two if you listen to Digger Phelps all day. It is true however. Antonio Barton has played better, and has shot 36.7% from three in his last six games, along with 3.2 assists, only 1.3 turnovers, and 1.3 steals. It's better and pretty solid considering Tennessee doesn't rely on him a lot, but he must shoot the three ball well. He has to hit open shots and he must play aggressive defense at the point, forcing turnovers, and making offenses start farther away.
2. Protect the basketball
Other than inconsistent shooting from three, you can blame turnovers as to why Tennessee has struggled this season. They turn the ball over 17% of the time, 12th in the SEC this year. The really bad news about that is because Tennessee was dead last in possessions per game in the SEC, limiting turnovers is especially crucial for Tennessee. If Tennessee slows down the game (which they should do against Iowa and Duke especially), they need to keep their AST/TO ratio very low.
3. Guard the three point line................but don't overdo it
Tennessee's opponents shot better from three them, and they were 10th in the SEC in defensive three point percentage. That doesn't seem very good until you realize that they only gave 24% of points against them from the three point line, 3rd in the SEC. They gave up more points inside the perimeter percentage wise than anyone in the SEC, but their two point FG% percentage defense was 51st in the country.
What does all this mean? That Tennessee will give up some good looks from three in order to stop paint drives. This is a good strategy for the tournament, but Tennessee cannot sink in too much from the perimeter, which they have a habit of doing. How do you fix this? Make sure you have a complete understanding of who to leave and who to cover. Deny shooters the ball on off ball screens. Finally, close out hard and force the defender into a covered three or passing it back up top.
4. Feed "The Big Difference"
Jarnell Stokes was first All-SEC for a reason and had a case to be SEC POY. He was a beast during SEC play averaging 15/11 and shooting 56.7% and continued to improve every game. He's the reason Tennessee is in the tournament. He needs to get 15 shots a game. He should be getting the ball every play. But make sure to not be predictable. Put him in pick and rolls, give him high post looks, and run him off screens. Stokes needs to average somewhere between 18-20 ppg and shoot over 50% for the Vols to get to the second weekend. Jordan McRae is awesome and can do a lot, but Tennessee needs efficiency. Stokes is efficient and can create for others with his ability in the post to pass out of double teams for easy buckets.
5. Get to the free throw line and convert
Tennessee had a disappointing free throw rate this year, finishing 150th in the country in that department. It is shown that teams that get to the line and convert in the tournament will advance. Not only do you get free points, but you also open up the floor for better shots on the outside. More importantly, you can get good players in foul trouble. Tennessee cannot settle for outside jump shots. They must attack the basket. It's their biggest weakness. They settle too much for outside shots. If they establish a game plan to get to the paint with ball screens and most importantly, using Stokes as a passer for off ball cuts, Tennessee will be successful.
1. Antonio Barton must play well.
If you want to play a fun drinking game, take a shot when you hear something to this extent: "In order to advance in the tournament, you must have good guard play!". You'll be hammered within three hours, two if you listen to Digger Phelps all day. It is true however. Antonio Barton has played better, and has shot 36.7% from three in his last six games, along with 3.2 assists, only 1.3 turnovers, and 1.3 steals. It's better and pretty solid considering Tennessee doesn't rely on him a lot, but he must shoot the three ball well. He has to hit open shots and he must play aggressive defense at the point, forcing turnovers, and making offenses start farther away.
2. Protect the basketball
Other than inconsistent shooting from three, you can blame turnovers as to why Tennessee has struggled this season. They turn the ball over 17% of the time, 12th in the SEC this year. The really bad news about that is because Tennessee was dead last in possessions per game in the SEC, limiting turnovers is especially crucial for Tennessee. If Tennessee slows down the game (which they should do against Iowa and Duke especially), they need to keep their AST/TO ratio very low.
3. Guard the three point line................but don't overdo it
Tennessee's opponents shot better from three them, and they were 10th in the SEC in defensive three point percentage. That doesn't seem very good until you realize that they only gave 24% of points against them from the three point line, 3rd in the SEC. They gave up more points inside the perimeter percentage wise than anyone in the SEC, but their two point FG% percentage defense was 51st in the country.
What does all this mean? That Tennessee will give up some good looks from three in order to stop paint drives. This is a good strategy for the tournament, but Tennessee cannot sink in too much from the perimeter, which they have a habit of doing. How do you fix this? Make sure you have a complete understanding of who to leave and who to cover. Deny shooters the ball on off ball screens. Finally, close out hard and force the defender into a covered three or passing it back up top.
4. Feed "The Big Difference"
Jarnell Stokes was first All-SEC for a reason and had a case to be SEC POY. He was a beast during SEC play averaging 15/11 and shooting 56.7% and continued to improve every game. He's the reason Tennessee is in the tournament. He needs to get 15 shots a game. He should be getting the ball every play. But make sure to not be predictable. Put him in pick and rolls, give him high post looks, and run him off screens. Stokes needs to average somewhere between 18-20 ppg and shoot over 50% for the Vols to get to the second weekend. Jordan McRae is awesome and can do a lot, but Tennessee needs efficiency. Stokes is efficient and can create for others with his ability in the post to pass out of double teams for easy buckets.
5. Get to the free throw line and convert
Tennessee had a disappointing free throw rate this year, finishing 150th in the country in that department. It is shown that teams that get to the line and convert in the tournament will advance. Not only do you get free points, but you also open up the floor for better shots on the outside. More importantly, you can get good players in foul trouble. Tennessee cannot settle for outside jump shots. They must attack the basket. It's their biggest weakness. They settle too much for outside shots. If they establish a game plan to get to the paint with ball screens and most importantly, using Stokes as a passer for off ball cuts, Tennessee will be successful.
