The Tennessee Volunteers are one of the least predictable teams in the NCAA tournament field. Is this the same team that was embarrassed at home by NC State, or the one that blew away ACC regular-season champion Virginia by 35? Is this the team that lost twice to Texas A&M, or the one that beat LSU and Alabama by double digits on the road and took apart Missouri 72-45 in the regular-season finale? Vols fans are about to find out.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Xavier, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri
Worst losses: UTEP, Texas A&M (twice)
Conference finish: Fourth, SEC
Polls and metrics: Tennessee was No. 33 in the BPI and No. 13 in the Kenpom rankings after the regular season.
All-time tourney record: 16-20, Elite Eight
Coach's tourney record: Cuonzo Martin (0-0)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are for the regular season only.)
Biggest strength: The Vols have one of the most physically imposing frontcourts in the country in Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon, both of whom are listed at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds. Both work the offensive glass relentlessly, but they're versatile enough to score from the free throw line extended and are also good passers.
Biggest weakness: Not until late in the season did Tennessee find a groove. Inconsistent effort on defense, poor shot selection and playing down to their opponents combined to tamp down this team's accomplishments.
Best player: Stokes. The junior racked up 18 double-doubles through the regular season, which ranked third in Division I and was the most by a Tennessee player since Bernard King's 22 in 1976-77. King was decent. Stokes set the school record for offensive rebounds (312), and he became a good passer. His 45 assists in SEC games were second on the team.
X factor: Antonio Barton. When his shot is on, Tennessee usually wins or is at least in the game. Barton struggled in the middle of the SEC season, but after committing to a daily morning-shooting routine, he rediscovered his touch. In the Vols' last three regular-season games, he averaged 17 points, tops on the team, and shot .591 from 3-point range (13-of-22).
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Vols are a motion team but found room for more set plays to make sure leading scorer Jordan McRae maximized his opportunities and Stokes was consistently utilized as a post threat.
Defensive approach: Tennessee primarily plays man-to-man, but this season the Vols dabbled with a 1-3-1 zone, which often caught their opponents off guard.
How they beat you: Tennessee wins by pounding the offensive glass, playing sticky defense and taking good shots within the framework of its offense.
How you beat them: Harass their guards and force them to make hurried decisions and take rushed shots.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com, and are accurate through games of March 9.)
Category: Stat (Nat'l rank)
Offensive efficiency: 115.7 (16)
Defensive efficiency: 95.7 (28)
3-point percentage: 32.8 (233)
3-point percentage D: 34.4 (174)
Free throw rate: 41.3 (148)
Free throw rate D: 33.5 (45)
TO percentage: 16.8 (71)
TO percentage D: 17.0 (253)
Good stat: 115.7 offensive efficiency rating
When the Vols play their best, they utilize their inside game to get easy baskets and attack the rim, which also generates a lot of free throws.
Bad stat: 17.0 turnover percentage D
For most of the season, Tennessee's defense wasn't all that aggressive. When the Vols turned up the defensive heat with just a handful of games left in the regular season, they forced teams out of their comfort zone and created more turnovers.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
If the Vols continue to play the kind of defense they showed in the regular season's final four games -- and continue to take good shots while taking advantage of Stokes and Maymon inside -- they are capable of playing into the tournament's second weekend.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
If the Vols don't guard their opponents, and they force contested jumpers rather than look for their bruising post men inside, their first NCAA trip in three years will be a short one.
