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Old 01-17-2013, 02:19 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Maybe some of you geniuses need to look at who UT has played so far in conference and who everyone else has played. While 0-3 sucks, there aren't many teams that would have a better record than 0-3 right now. Hell, most people at the first of the year expected 1-2 because they didn't think we would win at Bama and at Ky and it turns out Ole Miss looks to be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the SEC.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:22 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by calban View Post
Actually, going by possession stats which have been accurate in all SEC games we've played so far, we lose by 10 to 15 points.
Look at who Miss St has played and who UT has played.

Miss St's SOS is 251. UT's is 51.

Miss St has played South Carolina, UGA and Bama in the SEC. South Carolina and UGA suck balls. Bama beat Miss St at Miss St by 32 last night.

UT has played Ole Miss, Bama and Ky. Not even the same comparison.

If UT loses to Miss St Sat then people can proceed to their nearest bridge and jump because this season is officially tanked.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:23 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bleedingTNorange View Post
So that's your prediction?
None really.
But going by the stat sheet possession stats which have been pretty close so far, the only teams we can beat in the SEC, the way we're playing defense right now are Vandy by 2, GA by 15 and LSu BY 4.
tHAT'S JUST USING THE STATS IN A 70 POSS GAME.
Sorry hit cap lock.
Those stats will of course change from game to game and they are only based on conference play so far.
Kinda scary though.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:29 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by calban View Post
None really.
But going by the stat sheet possession stats which have been pretty close so far, the only teams we can beat in the SEC, the way we're playing defense right now are Vandy by 2, GA by 15 and LSu BY 4.
tHAT'S JUST USING THE STATS IN A 70 POSS GAME.
Sorry hit cap lock.
Those stats will of course change from game to game and they are only based on conference play so far.
Kinda scary though.
Liverpi.com has UT winning 9 games. Realtimerpi.com says 7-11 for conference play.

It's hard to really rely on those only 3 conference games into the season, but I would say between 7-9 games is fairly accurate.

Liverpi.com says UT has a 88% probability of winning Sat over Miss St. Based on their stats, we've played 2 of our hardest 4 games on the schedule. The next two are at Ole Miss and Fla.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:31 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by OrangeBalls View Post
Look at who Miss St has played and who UT has played.

Miss St's SOS is 251. UT's is 51.

Miss St has played South Carolina, UGA and Bama in the SEC. South Carolina and UGA suck balls. Bama beat Miss St at Miss St by 32 last night.

UT has played Ole Miss, Bama and Ky. Not even the same comparison.

If UT loses to Miss St Sat then people can proceed to their nearest bridge and jump because this season is officially tanked.
Don't waste your time, my friend. I was thinking this same thing but felt like I was going to get some smartass comment back. The middle part of the schedule gets much easier.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:33 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by OrangeBalls View Post
Look at who Miss St has played and who UT has played.

Miss St's SOS is 251. UT's is 51.

Miss St has played South Carolina, UGA and Bama in the SEC. South Carolina and UGA suck balls. Bama beat Miss St at Miss St by 32 last night.

UT has played Ole Miss, Bama and Ky. Not even the same comparison.

If UT loses to Miss St Sat then people can proceed to their nearest bridge and jump because this season is officially tanked.
Not making a prediction but using the same stats for games played so far in SEC.
Ole Miss by 24
Alabama by 3
KY by 9.
Pretty close to what transpired.

Using the stats Miss State is 20 points better on defense and we're 5 points better on Offense.

We'll see how much weight we can put on this Saturday.
Just got interested in it when they dissed our defense on national TV a couple of days ago using the possession stats.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:39 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by calban View Post
Not making a prediction but using the same stats for games played so far in SEC.
Ole Miss by 24
Alabama by 3
KY by 9.
Pretty close to what transpired.

Using the stats Miss State is 20 points better on defense and we're 5 points better on Offense.

We'll see how much weight we can put on this Saturday.
Just got interested in it when they dissed our defense on national TV a couple of days ago using the possession stats.
Those stats are useful if you've played fairly good competition. Miss St hasn't, UT has so far. There's an exception to every rule though. I think Ole Miss' SOS was in the 200's when they played UT. It's still only 176 and projected not to be but 128 by the end of the season. That's probably why they weren't ranked this week even after waxing Mizzou at home. Because of their low SOS, they have to go probably at least 12-6 in the SEC to make the dance. UT has more margin for error because they played a tougher OOC schedule, but if you aren't winning it doesn't matter.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:52 PM   #38 (permalink)
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We lost to Bama by 3, Mississippi State lost to Bama by 32....so by that we should win by 29?!

Obviously your offensive and defensive stats are gonnd be inflated by playing a soft schedule, something state has.

I think we win this by 15+, I see CCM trying to use it as a confidence builder. I see us going atleast 9-9, probably 10-8 abs finishing regular season with 17-18 wins.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:58 PM   #39 (permalink)
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We lost to Bama by 3, Mississippi State lost to Bama by 32....so by that we should win by 29?!

Obviously your offensive and defensive stats are gonnd be inflated by playing a soft schedule, something state has.

I think we win this by 15+, I see CCM trying to use it as a confidence builder. I see us going atleast 9-9, probably 10-8 abs finishing regular season with 17-18 wins.
Liverpi.com and realtimerpi.com has UT winning by 13. We'll see how accurate they are. Liverpi.com uses Sagarin's predictor and seems to be a little more accurate, but they both agree here.

Also, if anyone has access to Pomeroy's site (it's a pay site now), his tends to be the best.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:16 PM   #40 (permalink)
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No way we lose Saturday. As bad as we are, Miss State is terrible.
You are correct here. State is winless on the road and lost to Bama by 30! Vols by 16.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:18 PM   #41 (permalink)
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I hope we don't lose to Miss State. That would be quite the disappointment.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:45 PM   #42 (permalink)
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They play zone.
Zo has yet to show he knows how to attack one.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:50 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Don't waste your time, my friend. I was thinking this same thing but felt like I was going to get some smartass comment back. The middle part of the schedule gets much easier.
Why would you expect a smart ass comment?
I post stats from a possession model and you post your opinion.
That simple. don't need to make anything personal.
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Old 01-17-2013, 04:58 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Using all games in the possession stats model it projects TN by 4.
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Old 01-17-2013, 05:27 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Stokes IMO does not have that Chris Webber type mentallity yet that "I am bigger, stronger, and better than you....so I will own you" yet. With lack of pure shooters...this is the result.
Maybe Stokes is going to "flip the switch" when he gets to the league like the sheep in the FF think Bray will.
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