Memphis-UT matchup analysis

#1
M

MemphisCanes

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#1
I thought you guys may want a Memphis fan's take on the game this Friday.

THE NUMBERS:
Since these teams play such different tempos (Memphis at 67th most possessions per game, UT at 288th), a comparison of stats per game doesn't paint the best picture. Instead, below are per possession stats from Pomeroy's website.

Offensive efficiency:
Memphis-65, UT-128
Defensive efficiency:
Memphis-46, UT- 31

No surprises, UT the better defensive team, Memphis the better offensive team.

Memphis on offense: Memphis is shooting a effective FG% (a FG% adjusted to account for 3 pt shooting) of 51.5%, while UT is holding opponents to just 41.8% (18th lowest in the nation). Memphis has turned the ball over quite a bit in it's 12 games so far, 21.6% of its possessions. However, UT is 282nd in the nation in forcing turnovers on defense. Memphis is also a great offensive rebounding team (33rd in the nation) and UT is a great at limiting second chance opportunities (40th in defensive rebounding). Ut has also defended the 3 extremely well (4th in the nation in allowed 3pt%), and Memphis has struggled to shoot it well (184th in 3pt%).

UT on offense: UT is struggling from the floor (46.8% EFG%, 215th in the nation) mostly due to poor 3pt shooting (28%, 308th in the nation. However, Memphis has defended the 3 very poorly (allowed teams to shoot 35.1%, 244th in the nation). UT has protected the ball well and rebounded well on offense, but what they truly accel at is getting to the FT line, which they do at a clip of .466 free throw attempts for every FG attempt (14th in the nation). Sending teams to the FT line has been an issue for the Tigers, allowing teams .377 FT attempts per FG attempt (215th in the nation).

Synopsis: This will be shocker to most, but this will be prototypical style v style matchup. Memphis wants to play fast, UT wants to slow it down. UT has the distinct advantage if this is a halfcourt game, while Memphis focring turnovers and getting easy points in transition will be extremely hard for UT to deal with. Golden takes good care of the ball, so Memphis may have trouble getting under his skin. It will be on Stokes, Hall and Yemi to keep Memphis' Tarik Black and Shaq Goodwin off the boards. I wouldn't be surprised to see that neither team has shot double digit 3 pointers by the end of the game. This one will be played in the paint.

I expect Memphis to throw a zone at the Vols early and often (I saw a good bit of zone in Memphis' 12/30 game which I assume is a warmup for UT). UT will have to shoot over it but, in the friendly confines of TBA and with Reese's showing on Saturday, it can be done. Both teams are 2-3 vs. Kenpom top 100 teams, but UT's best win has come at home vs. Wichita State and the Vols always play well at home.

My take is that the game will be won by UT on the defensive end. UT can win even if the game speeds up, so long as Memphis is working for every basket. UT will get enough free throws to stay in the game so long as they limit transition and put back points for Memphis. Points in the paint will be crucial; the team with more will be the team that gets the W.

Individual matchups to come.
 
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#2
#2
Is that your write up or a local Memphis reporter? Either way a pretty good write up. Just props to you if you did it yourself.
 
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#4
#4
Joe Jackson (6'0 ft, 170 lb Junior) v. Trae Golden (6'1" 205 lb Junior):

Compare College Basketball Players - StatSheet.com

This is what the people came to see; the marquee matchup. This will be the 4th matchup between these two, and they're both (arguably) the best player on their respective squads.

Joe is scoring the ball extremely efficiently over his past few games, and his turnovers, which have been a problem, have declined as well. Golden on the other hand is playing the role of distributor very well for the Vols, clocking a 2.4 A/TO ratio.

It will be interesting to see how Golden handles the pressure from the Tigers, and how well Jackson and the other Memphis guards handle Golden's aggression on the offensive end. Jackson has had lapses in which he makes dumb fouls, and against Golden who is 68th at the nation in drawing fouls against opposing teams and 92nd in the nation in getting to the foul line, that could be trouble. Geron Johnson, who will cover Golden a bit as well, is extremely foul prone.

However, both Jackson (460th) and Johnson (76th) are extremely good at forcing steals, while Golden is very good at protecting the ball (464th in TO rate).

Jackson has been the Tiger's best 3 pt shooter, and if he gets looks, he will put them in. If Jackson is scoring and getting to the FT line, UT will have a long day ahead of them.
 
#6
#6
Great write up.

Interesting you took UT, didn't see that one coming. I haven't felt good about this game for awhile, but as you mention if we can force Memphis to a half court game I like our chances.
 
#7
#7
MemphisCanes said:
I thought you guys may want a Memphis fan's take on the game this Friday.

THE NUMBERS:
Since these teams play such different tempos (Memphis at 67th most possessions per game, UT at 288th), a comparison of stats per game doesn't paint the best picture. Instead, below are per possession stats from Pomeroy's website.

Offensive efficiency:
Memphis-65, UT-128
Defensive efficiency:
Memphis-46, UT- 31

No surprises, UT the better defensive team, Memphis the better offensive team.

Memphis on offense: Memphis is shooting a effective FG% (a FG% adjusted to account for 3 pt shooting) of 51.5%, while UT is holding opponents to just 41.8% (18th lowest in the nation). Memphis has turned the ball over quite a bit in it's 12 games so far, 21.6% of its possessions. However, UT is 282nd in the nation in forcing turnovers on defense. Memphis is also a great offensive rebounding team (33rd in the nation) and UT is a great at limiting second chance opportunities (40th in defensive rebounding). Ut has also defended the 3 extremely well (4th in the nation in allowed 3pt%), and Memphis has struggled to shoot it well (184th in 3pt%).

UT on offense: UT is struggling from the floor (46.8% EFG%, 215th in the nation) mostly due to poor 3pt shooting (28%, 308th in the nation. However, Memphis has defended the 3 very poorly (allowed teams to shoot 35.1%, 244th in the nation). UT has protected the ball well and rebounded well on offense, but what they truly accel at is getting to the FT line, which they do at a clip of .466 free throw attempts for every FG attempt (14th in the nation). Sending teams to the FT line has been an issue for the Tigers, allowing teams .377 FT attempts per FG attempt (215th in the nation).

Synopsis: This will be shocker to most, but this will be prototypical style v style matchup. Memphis wants to play fast, UT wants to slow it down. UT has the distinct advantage if this is a halfcourt game, while Memphis focring turnovers and getting easy points in transition will be extremely hard for UT to deal with. Golden takes good care of the ball, so Memphis may have trouble getting under his skin. It will be on Stokes, Hall and Yemi to keep Memphis' Tarik Black and Shaq Goodwin off the boards. I wouldn't be surprised to see that neither team has shot double digit 3 pointers by the end of the game. This one will be played in the paint.

I expect Memphis to throw a zone at the Vols early and often (I saw a good bit of zone in Memphis' 12/30 game which I assume is a warmup for UT). UT will have to shoot over it but, in the friendly confines of TBA and with Reese's showing on Saturday, it can be done. Both teams are 2-3 vs. Kenpom top 100 teams, but UT's best win has come at home vs. Wichita State and the Vols always play well at home.

My take is that the game will be won by UT on the defensive end. UT can win even if the game speeds up, so long as Memphis is working for every basket. UT will get enough free throws to stay in the game so long as they limit transition and put back points for Memphis. Points in the paint will be crucial; the team with more will be the team that gets the W.

Individual matchups to come.
Click to expand...


That is a good analysis. The one concern for Memphis is that they gave up a bunch of offensive rebounds in the first half against Loyola, MD. With UT struggling so much on offense, they can't let that happen. But, you know Stokes wants to play well, and Yemi is always aggressive. If I were playing UT, I would zone as well. But the only problem is that does slow the game down. Memphis will need stops and then push. But, UT will probably not take a shot until under 10-15 on the shot clock.

CCM will most likely play his patented man defense. Joe Jackson has scored pretty well the last 8 games, and I am not sure who guard him- maybe Richardson. Golden is too slow, probably needs to guard Crawford.

It should be an interesting game and as always, an intense battle.
 
#8
#8
MemphisCanes said:
Joe Jackson (6'0 ft, 170 lb Junior) v. Trae Golden (6'1" 205 lb Junior):

Compare College Basketball Players - StatSheet.com

This is what the people came to see; the marquee matchup. This will be the 4th matchup between these two, and they're both (arguably) the best player on their respective squads.

Joe is scoring the ball extremely efficiently over his past few games, and his turnovers, which have been a problem, have declined as well. Golden on the other hand is playing the role of distributor very well for the Vols, clocking a 2.4 A/TO ratio.

It will be interesting to see how Golden handles the pressure from the Tigers, and how well Jackson and the other Memphis guards handle Golden's aggression on the offensive end. Jackson has had lapses in which he makes dumb fouls, and against Golden who is 68th at the nation in drawing fouls against opposing teams and 92nd in the nation in getting to the foul line, that could be trouble. Geron Johnson, who will cover Golden a bit as well, is extremely foul prone.

However, both Jackson (460th) and Johnson (76th) are extremely good at forcing steals, while Golden is very good at protecting the ball (464th in TO rate).

Jackson has been the Tiger's best 3 pt shooter, and if he gets looks, he will put them in. If Jackson is scoring and getting to the FT line, UT will have a long day ahead of them.
Click to expand...

This will be a good matchup. I think if Josh Richardson is on Jackson though, Jackson will have a rough night. I am not worried at all about the pressure defense from Memphis as long as Golden is in the game. Golden handles pressure d as well as anyone. His TO usually come from passing the ball to the post. If Golden can drive the ball and get to the line, he will win the battle.
 
#9
#9
DJ Stephens will be difference maker in this game. He will be a huge matchup problem for the Vols. If he plays well, trouble for UT. If you don't hear his name, really good for UT.

Will Tarik Black be back for the UT game? If so, Martin better have Kenny ready to go into his his chest early for some quick fouls.
 
#10
#10
One thing I noticed at first glance, Memphis is pretty thin. They play 8 guys 20 minutes or more, but nobody else more than 8 minutes. They appear pretty thin at 1-3, if we can get a couple of thei guards into foul trouble would be great.

Who plays the 3, Thomas?
 
#11
#11
MemphisCanes said:
Joe Jackson (6'0 ft, 170 lb Junior) v. Trae Golden (6'1" 205 lb Junior):

Compare College Basketball Players - StatSheet.com

This is what the people came to see; the marquee matchup. This will be the 4th matchup between these two, and they're both (arguably) the best player on their respective squads.

Joe is scoring the ball extremely efficiently over his past few games, and his turnovers, which have been a problem, have declined as well. Golden on the other hand is playing the role of distributor very well for the Vols, clocking a 2.4 A/TO ratio.

It will be interesting to see how Golden handles the pressure from the Tigers, and how well Jackson and the other Memphis guards handle Golden's aggression on the offensive end. Jackson has had lapses in which he makes dumb fouls, and against Golden who is 68th at the nation in drawing fouls against opposing teams and 92nd in the nation in getting to the foul line, that could be trouble. Geron Johnson, who will cover Golden a bit as well, is extremely foul prone.

However, both Jackson (460th) and Johnson (76th) are extremely good at forcing steals, while Golden is very good at protecting the ball (464th in TO rate).

Jackson has been the Tiger's best 3 pt shooter, and if he gets looks, he will put them in. If Jackson is scoring and getting to the FT line, UT will have a long day ahead of them.
Click to expand...

Golden is going to look very, very slow in this game. Martin is going to need to set up a plan that minimizes the speed difference between Jackson and Golden.

Golden has gotten into the lane against very slow defenders. That will not happen in this game. Jackson is much quicker than Golden.
 
#12
#12
bleedingTNorange said:
One thing I noticed at first glance, Memphis is pretty thin. They play 8 guys 20 minutes or more, but nobody else more than 8 minutes. They appear pretty thin at 1-3, if we can get a couple of thei guards into foul trouble would be great.

Who plays the 3, Thomas?
Click to expand...

Thomas plays the 3. Jackson, Crawford, Barton, and Gerron Johnson, Thomas, and maybe Damien Wilson play 1-3. Black, Goodwin, Stephens, and Hall play 4-5.

Thomas and Crawford are really struggling offensively. Can't make shots. Crawford is actually turning down wide open shots because he has no confidence.
 
#13
#13
Tarik Black (6'9" 262 lb Junior) v. Jarnell Stokes (6'8" 270 lb Sophomore):

Compare College Basketball Players - StatSheet.com

If Jackson v. Golden is the main event, then this is the undercard. This will be Stokes' first meeting with his hometown squad. Both Stokes and Black have had on-court issues lately: Stokes has struggled with consistency and was taken out of the Xavier game, and Black has missed the last two games with a groin injury. This is the matchup that I'm most looking forward to.

Stokes is rebounding off the charts right now (108th in offensive rebounding, 287th in defensive) and the Tigers have been struggling to keep opposing bigs off the glass. However, Tarik is putting the ball in the basket as well as any post man in the league, shooting almost 70% from the floor. Although Black struggles to grab defensive glass, he does pretty well grabbing misses on the offensive end (287th in offensive rebounding).

Because of Memphis' depth in the frontcourt and because UT will most likely face a zone defense, Stokes will struggle to score unless he can crash the boards and get put backs. If the Tigers can feed Black in the post, and if UT doesn't send the double, Stokes will have too much to handle by himself.

Interesting to note, both players make it a point to draw fouls and get to the FT line (Black 178th at drawing fouls, Stokes at 76th). This may be a race to see who can get the other in foul trouble first. First big to get two fouls in the 1st half has put his team at a severe disadvantage.
 
#14
#14
bleedingTNorange said:
One thing I noticed at first glance, Memphis is pretty thin. They play 8 guys 20 minutes or more, but nobody else more than 8 minutes. They appear pretty thin at 1-3, if we can get a couple of thei guards into foul trouble would be great.

Who plays the 3, Thomas?
Click to expand...

Thin wouldn't be a good word for it. Memphis is deep, but the rotation has been in flux lately.

Our third option at PG, for instance, scored 21 points in a game last week.

We rotate Joe Jackson, Chris Crawford, Geron Johnson and Antonio Barton at the 1-2. Thomas will start at the 3 but he's played poorly of late, so you will see Damien Wilson and Geron Johnson spell him there.
 
#15
#15
Im shocked so far the way Adonis Thomas has played. Josh really needs to get this guy going to have a chance in March. Geron Johnson can filled the basket up and plays great D. Damien Wilson is starting to come on also, he has a good upside in the years to come I think. I think this will be as good ole J.R. says slobberknocker of a game.
 
#16
#16
I was just trying to figure out who Richardson will guard. I have to think golden guards Crawford, much better matchup for him than Jackson. That leaves Richardson and McRae for Jackson and Thomas, I'd think richardson would have more luck with Thomas than McRae. Then again if Jackson is the one who's been hot, and Thomas isn't bringing much, you probably put Richardson on Jackson and McRae on Thomas.
 
#17
#17
Both teams have effective guards to run their stykle of offense and both have a big body down low to rebound and take sapce up. I know this sounds like coach speak but this game comes down to role players. If Reese and Richardson can have another game like Xavier and we can have Ymei or Kenny show up down low we should be able to win.

I also think it is key that our guards not try to come out and run with Memphis like have in times past.
 
#18
#18
bleedingTNorange said:
I was just trying to figure out who Richardson will guard. I have to think golden guards Crawford, much better matchup for him than Jackson. That leaves Richardson and McRae for Jackson and Thomas, I'd think richardson would have more luck with Thomas than McRae. Then again if Jackson is the one who's been hot, and Thomas isn't bringing much, you probably put Richardson on Jackson and McRae on Thomas.
Click to expand...

I expect Richardson to be on Jackson. Jackson is the key to their offense so if we can take him out of rythym then we have a huge advantage.
 
#19
#19
e-VOL-ution2013 said:
I expect Richardson to be on Jackson. Jackson is the key to their offense so if we can take him out of rythym then we have a huge advantage.
Click to expand...

Makes sense.

I feel good about our chances with any player Josh guards. He's really making a case for best perimeter defender in the league.

He absolutely shut down Christon who is regarded as one of the better PGs in the country.
 
#20
#20
Geron Johnson (6'3" 197 lb Junior) v. Skyler McBee (6'3" 195 lb Senior):

Compare College Basketball Players - StatSheet.com

This is the battle of the 2 guards. It will most likely be Geron and Skyler starting, although Chris Crawford could be inserted here as well.

To be frank, no matter whether it's Crawford or Johnson, McBee is going to have his hands full. The one thing you can say for McBee is that he takes care of the ball, which is one of the most important factors for UT.

Johnson has gotten to the FT line very well the past few games, and he is the best at forcing turnovers for Memphis. Getting Johnson into transition is very advantageous for Memphis, and it's where Johnson is at his best.

But Johnson (and Crawford) have dominated other two guards, and I don't think McBee will be an exception. McBee may be able to sneak open for one or two good looks from downtown, and he better make them count.

Skyler has been known to light it up in big games at TBA, and it's not out of the question that it happens friday, but more likely I think McBee will have a quiet night. Skyler can do more to help Memphis than any other player for UT. More than one or two TOs or clanged 3s that lead to Tiger runouts and he can account for a bunch of Memphis' points.
 
#21
#21
bleedingTNorange said:
I was just trying to figure out who Richardson will guard. I have to think golden guards Crawford, much better matchup for him than Jackson. That leaves Richardson and McRae for Jackson and Thomas, I'd think richardson would have more luck with Thomas than McRae. Then again if Jackson is the one who's been hot, and Thomas isn't bringing much, you probably put Richardson on Jackson and McRae on Thomas.
Click to expand...

Anyone other than Golden on Jackson is a miss match, I think.

Richardson is amazing at guarding the 2-3, and decent at the 1 against slower PGs, but he may be a step too slow for Jackson. I think McRae is a worse perimeter defender than Golden and Richardson, which doesn't make sense to put on our most dangerous offensive threat. Richardson on Johnson and Adonis is going to be a good matchup.
 
#22
#22
bleedingTNorange said:
Makes sense.

I feel good about our chances with any player Josh guards. He's really making a case for best perimeter defender in the league.

He absolutely shut down Christon who is regarded as one of the better PGs in the country.
Click to expand...

After Martin calling him a shutdown defender now I won't be surprised to see him on our opponets best player from here on out as kinda a token of confidence to Richardson as well.
 
#24
#24
MemphisCanes said:
Geron Johnson (6'3" 197 lb Junior) v. Skyler McBee (6'3" 195 lb Senior):

Compare College Basketball Players - StatSheet.com

This is the battle of the 2 guards. It will most likely be Geron and Skyler starting, although Chris Crawford could be inserted here as well.

To be frank, no matter whether it's Crawford or Johnson, McBee is going to have his hands full. The one thing you can say for McBee is that he takes care of the ball, which is one of the most important factors for UT.

Johnson has gotten to the FT line very well the past few games, and he is the best at forcing turnovers for Memphis. Getting Johnson into transition is very advantageous for Memphis, and it's where Johnson is at his best.

But Johnson (and Crawford) have dominated other two guards, and I don't think McBee will be an exception. McBee may be able to sneak open for one or two good looks from downtown, and he better make them count.

Skyler has been known to light it up in big games at TBA, and it's not out of the question that it happens friday, but more likely I think McBee will have a quiet night. Skyler can do more to help Memphis than any other player for UT. More than one or two TOs or clanged 3s that lead to Tiger runouts and he can account for a bunch of Memphis' points.
Click to expand...

I hate to say it but any matchup with McBee..I take the other.
 
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