NCAA Tournament Odds

[golfballs]

According to the "Dance Card" which seems to be relatively accurate in the past. Tennessee has a 0.01% chance of going dancing.

NCAA Tournament "DanceCard" by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch

We're the 14th team out

Essentially, we are the last team on the bubble.

[golfballs]

It's worth noting, however, that the odds don't really "add up".

West Virginia only has a 33.69% chance of making the tournament according to them. However, most every bracket has them in.

The numbers should just be used as a ranking metric, IMO.

[VolFanInOkla]

Originally Posted by golfballs03

It's worth noting, however, that the odds don't really "add up".

West Virginia only has a 33.69% chance of making the tournament according to them. However, most every bracket has them in.

The numbers should just be used as a ranking metric, IMO.

Couldn't agree more
Posted via VolNation Mobile

[supersmo18]

Even if we don't make it to the NCAA's, I'm okay with that. This team has proven to me that they have what it takes to get a win; they just need to put it together on the road more. This is a gritty, hard-nosed team, and I credit that mostly to CCM. He's taken a team predicited to make virtually no noise, into a TNT explosion. We could be a very dangerous team in SEC tourney. If we don't make the NCAAs, we should def. be a lock for the NIT, which is still fine with me. I'd rather watch the Vols in the NIT than watch either tournament without them.

[sdowell]

Originally Posted by golfballs03

It's worth noting, however, that the odds don't really "add up".

West Virginia only has a 33.69% chance of making the tournament according to them. However, most every bracket has them in.

The numbers should just be used as a ranking metric, IMO.

w. va. has to have a real good showing in the big east tourney to make it. they will lose sat at s. florida. i say at least 2 wins in tourney to make it. we are headed to nit unless we make the sec tourney final and beat vandy sat.

[golfballs]

A win over Vandy tomorrow would catapult the Vols at least 5-6 spots in this ranking, IMO.

Add another win in the SEC tourney (which I fully expect), and Tennessee would probably be just on the outside looking in. A trip to the SEC semi-finals would put them in a great position.

[OrangeBalls]

That site has our RPI at 70 when it is only 81. I wonder where they're getting that.

[zansdad]

That first paragraph at the top specifically says it is for a 65 team field AND they are using the RPI formula pre-2004. Don't see how they think that can accurately predict much.

[Sudden Impact]

Bottom line is that it will require the human factor to get the Vols in the NCAA tournament. The Committee...period end of report.... and how they address the Vols turnaround.

We have to beat Vandy. We have to make to the Championship Game of the Tournament.
Anything short of that it is NIT bound and making it to the SEC Championship game is not a given without a close look by committee.

We will not be in this tournament if it is based solely on numbers, RPI and computers. The Committee will have to warrant it based on the entire body of work.

The changes made at UT with CCM and pre season predictions, style of play caters to a favorable response to the committee. The entire season and body of work for this team is favorable. CCM as a coach, his demeanor will characterize as a tough out. It could be favorable but only if we do our job win the next three and the committee (which they will) recognizes the push they made to put theirselves in the position to be considered. Yes I do believe the SEC sends 5 to the dance. KY, FL, Vandy are definitely in. So who are the other two between AL, Ms State, TN

That is it. TN has a strong resume of improvement and momentum. Yes, sometimes you have to step outside the numbers. TN has to prove it by making the SEC Championship game but it will be enough to get them to the dance outside of the numbers if the human factor comes into play. Another problem is the SEC side of it and the NCAA investigation that occur which equates to the political side of things. We all know Slive hates us. Hopefully he respects CCM to let the past go.

Right now we do numbers have about a 1% chance of a dance card. Three games from now number wise it goes considerably to 40% with wins. Add another 25% for the committee factor and the only degrading part will be politics and SEC. Which is a question mark when it comes to Slive and Tennessee.

[atxvol2010]

We are probably going to have to beat Vandy a second time if we beat them on Saturday. They will likely have the #3 seed in the SEC tournament if we beat them on Saturday and we will have to play them again if we win our first round game. I don't like the chances of us beating them twice, although I do think we win tomorrow.

If we can beat them twice and make it to the Finals, then we will really move up in the RPI getting 2 wins against a top 20 team. 20-13 team with 2 wins against Florida, 2 wins against Vandy, UConn and whomever else we beat. Man Jimmy Dykes was right when he said that Memphis loss in Maui would hurt us come selection time. I think that win would have made the difference.

[atxvol2010]

Alabama is going to be the 4th team in. They got SCREWED last year and they deserve it this year. Lost some games without key players, their overall work has been solid and they whooped us in a head to head. If they beat Ole Miss on Saturday then I consider them a lock.

MSU on the other hand isn't a lock. I would love to get matched up with them in the quarterfinals, if they could somehow get the #7 seed. They are not playing together as a team at the moment. Would be nice to get them while they are down.

[TBtheGBwiththeTD]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Tennessee.html

Rpi forecast predicts our rpi's for all potential final records, obviously it's not going to be completely accurate because our schedule for the SEC Tourney will depend on results of other games, but i digress:

We are currently 16-13 (Chaminade win doesn't count, they are DII), RPI: 80

Most people say we need to get Vandy, and then 2 in the SECT, that would put us around an RPI:57 (19-14)
If we beat vandy but can't manage to win that second game in the tourney, we would have a bye, our RPI:75 (18-14)

Any other result would lead to a pretty decisive NCAA tourney fate, we win vandy and 3 more we gotta be in, we don't beat vandy or manage to win no SEC T games we are out.

Another possibility, i believe, would be if we lose to vandy but manage to get 3 wins in the SEC T get to the Championship and assuming we meet UK and lose our RPI:58 (19-15)

As you can see, its pretty clear we need to win at least 3 more games and get to 19 wins, by committee standards, to feel like we have a legitimate argument to get in. Vandy isn't exactly a must win... but it certainly makes the road much much tougher if we lose.

Case and Point: Cinderella may be wearing orange this year, we need to get to TBA tomorrow and help drive our guys to get the W! I can sense the Vols really want to go dancing this year. Turns out the clock hasn't quite struck midnight on this fairytale.

[Jhall1120]

Put us in!!

[TBtheGBwiththeTD]

Originally Posted by Sudden Impact

Bottom line is that it will require the human factor to get the Vols in the NCAA tournament. The Committee...period end of report.... and how they address the Vols turnaround.

We have to beat Vandy. We have to make to the Championship Game of the Tournament.
Anything short of that it is NIT bound and making it to the SEC Championship game is not a given without a close look by committee.

We will not be in this tournament if it is based solely on numbers, RPI and computers. The Committee will have to warrant it based on the entire body of work.

The changes made at UT with CCM and pre season predictions, style of play caters to a favorable response to the committee. The entire season and body of work for this team is favorable. CCM as a coach, his demeanor will characterize as a tough out. It could be favorable but only if we do our job win the next three and the committee (which they will) recognizes the push they made to put theirselves in the position to be considered. Yes I do believe the SEC sends 5 to the dance. KY, FL, Vandy are definitely in. So who are the other two between AL, Ms State, TN

That is it. TN has a strong resume of improvement and momentum. Yes, sometimes you have to step outside the numbers. TN has to prove it by making the SEC Championship game but it will be enough to get them to the dance outside of the numbers if the human factor comes into play. Another problem is the SEC side of it and the NCAA investigation that occur which equates to the political side of things. We all know Slive hates us. Hopefully he respects CCM to let the past go.

Right now we do numbers have about a 1% chance of a dance card. Three games from now number wise it goes considerably to 40% with wins. Add another 25% for the committee factor and the only degrading part will be politics and SEC. Which is a question mark when it comes to Slive and Tennessee.

If we win out until the SEC title game would bump our RPI all the way to 39 or probly somewhere within 7 spots of that, that on numbers alone would get us in.
Not to mention the committee will looking at BPI (Basketball Power Index) more this year. BPI is a system that takes into account situations, scores of games, and other underlying factors, to rank teams. Fortunately for UT we are currently ranked 68th by ESPN in BPI. That number will obviously jump.

We would be no doubters with 4 more wins

[Sudden Impact]

I disagree that Alabama is a lock for the NCAA, right now, yes ok but with at least two games left to be played. They are either a 4th or a 5th seed. Lose one game of the next two and their stock drops. We are in a position to be a 2 - 5 seed with no lock. Again, Ms State can do no better than a 6 seed for the tournament and they are not a lock. The only locks are KY, Vandy, FL. More than likely TN, Ms State or AL will face one another in the tournament thus eliminating one or the other from the competion based on today's standings. and projection of seeds. If they don't face each other then it means they have lost.

Last year's selection committee was last year. There are no bonus points for being overlooked in this years selection. To think so is not sound and if they do that does not make AL a lock at this point.