http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Tennessee.html
Rpi forecast predicts our rpi's for all potential final records, obviously it's not going to be completely accurate because our schedule for the SEC Tourney will depend on results of other games, but i digress:
We are currently 16-13 (Chaminade win doesn't count, they are DII), RPI: 80
Most people say we need to get Vandy, and then 2 in the SECT, that would put us around an RPI:57 (19-14)
If we beat vandy but can't manage to win that second game in the tourney, we would have a bye, our RPI:75 (18-14)
Any other result would lead to a pretty decisive NCAA tourney fate, we win vandy and 3 more we gotta be in, we don't beat vandy or manage to win no SEC T games we are out.
Another possibility, i believe, would be if we lose to vandy but manage to get 3 wins in the SEC T get to the Championship and assuming we meet UK and lose our RPI:58 (19-15)
As you can see, its pretty clear we need to win at least 3 more games and get to 19 wins, by committee standards, to feel like we have a legitimate argument to get in. Vandy isn't exactly a must win... but it certainly makes the road much much tougher if we lose.
Case and Point: Cinderella may be wearing orange this year, we need to get to TBA tomorrow and help drive our guys to get the W! I can sense the Vols really want to go dancing this year. Turns out the clock hasn't quite struck midnight on this fairytale.