BPI Rankings

[ukvols]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

Tennessee needs to be in the top 45 to even get consideration.

USC's RPI was well below 45 last year, and they still got in. I'll feel much better if Tennessee is in the Top 45, but teams regularly get in with worse RPIs and miss the field with better RPIs. The RPI is just one tool that the Committee gives an unknown weight to.

[TennesseeFan07]

Originally Posted by emainvol

No they don't. Teams with lower RPIs than that get in as at larges all the time.

Those teams also have significant wins. Tennessee doesn't.

[emainvol]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

I'm guessing Chaminade doesn't count against anything.

Actually that is it. I thought it didn't count toward the ranking, but still showed up in the record on sites like realtimerpi and cbssports.

[ukvols]

Originally Posted by Incipient

Not so sure about this. If the team behind by 15 gets half again as many possessions in which to come back, they're not really in much worse position.

We've all seen those games where 20 points look like they could disappear in a heartbeat, and we've seen those games where 10 points look completely insurmountable. This just quantifies it.

If the team down by 15 is getting the ball more often, then yes, they will get more shots. But, that also means the team that's beating them is getting more possessions to score.

[ukvols]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

Those teams also have significant wins. Tennessee doesn't.

If Tennessee wins out for the regular season, they will have several wins against the RPI's Top 100.

[MemphisCanes]

Originally Posted by ukvols

Thank you for the explanation, by the way.

One more note: Regarding the UK/SMU example, including strength of schedule in the formula will handle that issue. KY's wins will be worth more, with the same scoring margins, simply because their schedule will grade out better. So, it's not like another number needs to be added to prove that KY has a better defense than SMU.

Well, SOS is taken into account by Kenpom and BPI. You can slide Wisconsin into place for SMU and it's still valid. They may hold teams to slightly lower overall scores than UK, but Wisconsin also plays probably 8 (on average) fewer possesions per game, so Kentucky again has the better defense despite allowing more points per game.

[emainvol]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

Those teams also have significant wins. Tennessee doesn't.

Oregon in 08 didn't.

The field has expanded, the committee weighs late season performance higher, Jarnell Stokes came in midseason, and the back end of the at-large pool is awful. Tennessee stays hot, Tennessee gets in, and I doubt the RPI gets that high.

[Incipient]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

Those teams also have significant wins. Tennessee doesn't.

Southern Cal's profile last year:

RPI: #67

Top 100 wins: 8 (Vols currently have 5)
Top 50 wins: 4 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-100 losses: 5 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-200 losses: 3 (Vols currently have 0)

Wins over tournament teams:

vs Texas (4 seed)
@ Tennessee (9 seed)
vs UCLA (7 seed)
vs Arizona (5 seed)
@ Washington (7 seed)

[MemphisCanes]

Originally Posted by ukvols

If the team down by 15 is getting the ball more often, then yes, they will get more shots. But, that also means the team that's beating them is getting more possessions to score.

and the opposite is true if the game is low on possessions. Basically, a 10 pt win in a game with 55 possesions it equivalent to a 15 point win in a game with 70 possesions, or close to it.

[TennesseeFan07]

Originally Posted by emainvol

Oregon in 08 didn't.

The field has expanded, the committee weighs late season performance higher, Jarnell Stokes came in midseason, and the back end of the at-large pool is awful. Tennessee stays hot, Tennessee gets in, and I doubt the RPI gets that high.

I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.

[Incipient]

Originally Posted by ukvols

If the team down by 15 is getting the ball more often, then yes, they will get more shots. But, that also means the team that's beating them is getting more possessions to score.

But, by hypothesis, the team behind is scoring at a higher rate than the team ahead, so who cares?

[Incipient]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.

Well obviously Tennessee isn't going to make it in if we finish 3-2. The question is what happens if we finish 4-1 or 5-0. And the people saying we're not an at-large team no matter how we finish are high.

[ukvols]

Suppose the 60-50 game had 80 possessions instead of 40. Now, it's 0.75-.625 instead of 1.5-1.25. It looks like the team that won in the game with 40 possessions each will get more credit than the team that struggled to score 60 with 80 possessions, but held its opponent to just 50 in 80 possessions.

I'm not seeing the value-added by nuking the final margin by adding another number to it.

[ukvols]

Originally Posted by TennesseeFan07

I said Saturday that I felt Tennessee would go 4-2 to end the season. That's my basis for them not making it in. I don't think they're going to run the table.

That's fair, and I agree that the odds are against winning out and thus against getting in.

[zansdad]

Originally Posted by Incipient

Southern Cal's profile last year:

RPI: #67

Top 100 wins: 8 (Vols currently have 5)
Top 50 wins: 4 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-100 losses: 5 (Vols currently have 3)
Sub-200 losses: 3 (Vols currently have 0)

Wins over tournament teams:

vs Texas (4 seed)
@ Tennessee (9 seed)
vs UCLA (7 seed)
vs Arizona (5 seed)
@ Washington (7 seed)

I believe all UT's remaining opponents except SoCar are RPI top 100, so winning out would mean add 4 to that total for a nice total of nine.