I don't know how many times I have to post this before it gets through to you people. I will try the list form this time and see if it sticks.
The main reasons why Tobias Harris will stay more than one year:
1. He and his father have stated many times throughout his recruitment that he will be looking to stay on 2 years or longer for education purposes (remember the whole STUDENT-athlete thing).
2. He may not get a desirable draft grade after his freshman year. Some of these kids won't go unless they know for sure they are a top 10 pick (a la Blake Griffin). Who knows? There may be a ton of Euros that grade higher at the same positon.
3. Here's the most important one. The NBA and its players' union are going to get into a messy negotiation over the next CBA that will take effect for the 2011-2012 season (Tobias' first year eligible for the draft). Due to many financial matters, the league and its players will probably not come to terms and the entire NBA season will be looking at a lockout or strike. No NBA = 2nd year of Harris at UT.
Thank you. You Fail.