Some Questions Moving into SEC Play

#1

Gilbert

Punter U
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#1
With SEC play starting this weekend, I was wondering what everyone's expectations are looking ahead. UT has been pretty impressive in its early season games, beating some pretty solid teams on the road and holding serve at home. The pitching has been really good and we've had several guys start off hot at the plate. The contributions have come from a good mix of gristled veterans and talented freshman. The following are some questions I've been thinking about this week as the competition steps up a notch this weekend:

Should making the SEC tournament be the only expectation? Will you be happy if it's done in the same fashion as the last few years?

Is this team good enough to receive an NCAA tournament birth?

How do the Vols need to finish in order for Serrano to continue his tenure?

Do we have enough pitching depth to be competitive in conference?

Will the talented newcomers eventually hit a freshman wall?

What is your SEC prediction for this team?

Just curious, and wanting to start discussion. Feel free to share any and all thoughts.
 
#2
#2
With SEC play starting this weekend, I was wondering what everyone's expectations are looking ahead. UT has been pretty impressive in its early season games, beating some pretty solid teams on the road and holding serve at home. The pitching has been really good and we've had several guys start off hot at the plate. The contributions have come from a good mix of gristled veterans and talented freshman. The following are some questions I've been thinking about this week as the competition steps up a notch this weekend:

Should making the SEC tournament be the only expectation? Will you be happy if it's done in the same fashion as the last few years?

Is this team good enough to receive an NCAA tournament birth?

How do the Vols need to finish in order for Serrano to continue his tenure?

Do we have enough pitching depth to be competitive in conference?

Will the talented newcomers eventually hit a freshman wall?

What is your SEC prediction for this team?

Just curious, and wanting to start discussion. Feel free to share any and all thoughts.

I follow the games and know players' names, but I don't think I know enough to answer some of your questions.

That said, I like to break down teams' schedules to create minor goals so that you can hit your main goal at the end of the year. Kind of like in football last year, everyone thought the 4 game stretch was crucial, and I thought the goal was to go 2-2 with wins against the East. We did that but failed at the other goal of sweeping the rest.

Based on recent history, it looks like you have to hit around .500 in conference play to have a shot at the NCAAT. Last year, two teams (UK and Bama) were exactly .500 but didn't make it. It appears they lost double digit games OOC. That is why this hot start can be very important for this UT team. If they continue success OOC, then they can go a little less than .500 and possibly make the NCAAT.

So.....
USC and at MSU (need to take 3 of 6)
UGA (2 of 3)
at UF (1 of 3)
Auburn (2 of 3)
at Texas A&M (1 of 3)
at Vandy and Arkansas (3 of 6)
at UK (2 of 3)
Missouri (1 of 3)

That breakdown gets you to 15-15. You also have a little wiggle room with a possible sweep of UGA and maybe taking 2 of 3 against Missouri. As always in baseball, try to win every series and avoid a sweep.
 
#3
#3
With SEC play starting this weekend, I was wondering what everyone's expectations are looking ahead. UT has been pretty impressive in its early season games, beating some pretty solid teams on the road and holding serve at home. The pitching has been really good and we've had several guys start off hot at the plate. The contributions have come from a good mix of gristled veterans and talented freshman. The following are some questions I've been thinking about this week as the competition steps up a notch this weekend:

Should making the SEC tournament be the only expectation? Will you be happy if it's done in the same fashion as the last few years?

Is this team good enough to receive an NCAA tournament birth?

How do the Vols need to finish in order for Serrano to continue his tenure?

Do we have enough pitching depth to be competitive in conference?

Will the talented newcomers eventually hit a freshman wall?

What is your SEC prediction for this team?

Just curious, and wanting to start discussion. Feel free to share any and all thoughts.

These are very tough questions at this early point in the season, but I can't help but take a stab at them although it's far too early to predict anything with much confidence. Having said that, here goes...

Should making the SEC tournament be the only expectation? No, we'll go beyond that.

Will you be happy if it's done in the same fashion as the last few years? No, we have the pitching and hitting to do much better.

Is this team good enough to receive an NCAA tournament birth? Yes I really think they can be that good. Will they? TBD.

How do the Vols need to finish in order for Serrano to continue his tenure? Win 35 plus games and make the NCAAs.

Do we have enough pitching depth to be competitive in conference? More than enough assuming almost everybody stays healthy.

Will the talented newcomers eventually hit a freshman wall? A few likely will but this question really has no answer.

What is your SEC prediction for this team? 20 & 10. There, I said it! Hope it approaches reality.
 
Last edited:
#4
#4
I follow the games and know players' names, but I don't think I know enough to answer some of your questions.

That said, I like to break down teams' schedules to create minor goals so that you can hit your main goal at the end of the year. Kind of like in football last year, everyone thought the 4 game stretch was crucial, and I thought the goal was to go 2-2 with wins against the East. We did that but failed at the other goal of sweeping the rest.

Based on recent history, it looks like you have to hit around .500 in conference play to have a shot at the NCAAT. Last year, two teams (UK and Bama) were exactly .500 but didn't make it. It appears they lost double digit games OOC. That is why this hot start can be very important for this UT team. If they continue success OOC, then they can go a little less than .500 and possibly make the NCAAT.

So.....
USC and at MSU (need to take 3 of 6)
UGA (2 of 3)
at UF (1 of 3)
Auburn (2 of 3)
at Texas A&M (1 of 3)
at Vandy and Arkansas (3 of 6)
at UK (2 of 3)
Missouri (1 of 3)

That breakdown gets you to 15-15. You also have a little wiggle room with a possible sweep of UGA and maybe taking 2 of 3 against Missouri. As always in baseball, try to win every series and avoid a sweep.

I agree that 15-15 or a little worse would get us in the NCAA field barring some RPI lowering midweek losses. I think it's important to get off to a good start in conference. It won't be easy but we catch a break this weekend as Clarke Schmidt, the gamecocks ace, is out with an abdominal strain. Hopefully we can take advantage of that. I also don't think Miss St is as good as last year. They lost a lot and their pitching has suffered a lot of injuries so far this season.

Like you, I think it's important to avoid sweeps, sweep when you can, and try to win every series. It's important to be consistent. I've seen UT teams many times in the past win a series versus a Vandy, or play UF really tough taking a game, and then turnaround and get swept by a Mizzou or UGA team.
 
#5
#5
Should making the SEC tournament be the only expectation? Will you be happy if it's done in the same fashion as the last few years?

My expectation would be to go beyond the first round of the tourney

Is this team good enough to receive an NCAA tournament birth?
Possibly

How do the Vols need to finish in order for Serrano to continue his tenure?
Probably where my expectation is. We should keep him as we can't get anyone better. Serrano is that good.

Do we have enough pitching depth to be competitive in conference?
Definitely, we have a very deep bullpen this year with Schultz, Darling, Stallings, Helfin, Westphal, Serrano, and Lipinski. We just need to get through 4 or 5 this year

Will the talented newcomers eventually hit a freshman wall?
Of course, this is baseball.

What is your SEC prediction for this team?
Breaking even

Just curious, and wanting to start discussion. Feel free to share any and all thoughts.
Our bullpen is the best it has been in a long time. I'm concerned about our bench and our starters.
 
#6
#6
With SEC play starting this weekend, I was wondering what everyone's expectations are looking ahead. UT has been pretty impressive in its early season games, beating some pretty solid teams on the road and holding serve at home. The pitching has been really good and we've had several guys start off hot at the plate. The contributions have come from a good mix of gristled veterans and talented freshman. The following are some questions I've been thinking about this week as the competition steps up a notch this weekend:

Should making the SEC tournament be the only expectation? Will you be happy if it's done in the same fashion as the last few years?

Is this team good enough to receive an NCAA tournament birth?

How do the Vols need to finish in order for Serrano to continue his tenure?

Do we have enough pitching depth to be competitive in conference?

Will the talented newcomers eventually hit a freshman wall?

What is your SEC prediction for this team?

Just curious, and wanting to start discussion. Feel free to share any and all thoughts.

I believe CDS has the staff now and the addition of Helton is going to at least give Serrano a powerful voice to make upgrades to the program. That is no small thing.

We've started off strong before only to wither due to the grind of SEC play.

Again we are 2 to 5 games behind the other SEC teams in non conference games so comparing stats at this juncture can be misleading.

However, the strike out to walk ratio at this point is noteworthy. We had nine pitchers hit the mound yesterday and only gave up 1 walk while striking out 8. The return of Westphal yesterday adds to what appears to be the deepest pitching staff with the most velo of any staff of the CDS era.

All of this bodes well, but we'll have to wait and see. This weekend will be a great test because SC has played a top 10 schedule. Our opponents thus far have a combined ERA of 6.71 which is much different from the 3.02 we will face this weekend. We left 13 on base against AP, can't do that against SC.

As for tourney chances, somewhere around .500 or 15-15 in SEC play is sort of the standard and on paper, for the first time in a long time, not only do we have the pitching to make the NCAA, but we have enough to actually compete. The past couple of years we've made the SEC but had we won the first game there was no way we would have enough pitching to win game 2. Obviously, as everyone else has said, we'll have to wait and see how the young guns hold up to the pressure of the SEC. I can't stress enough how important health is, how important a little luck in that regard is.

I think CDS needs to make the NCAA this season and him making it is probably in the best interest of Tennessee Baseball. However, should he not, it will be hard for even me to justify him staying.

Something needs to happen over there to wake the Admin up about college baseball and if a change will infuse energy so be it. The something that needs to happen is getting to the tournament, significant post season play is the only thing that will wake folks up.

I don't blame Serrano for it all even though it's his job to win games at the end of the day and I believe he underestimated how difficult the job would be here. But, he hasn't had a lot of help either.

If I wanted to take the time I could make a convincing case that the Tennessee baseball job is right at the bottom with two or three others in the SEC. I want CDS to succeed and now is the time.

So, to sum up...on paper we have the pitching, may have the hitting to make the post season, but that's no guarantee. Avoid being swept and don't lose bad midweek games that crush your RPI.


GBO!!!
 
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