What numbers get a team into the Regionals?

#1
StarRaider

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#1
Asking really for a team in a true baseball power conference (SEC, ACC, PAC-x)

Conference: A winning/0.500 record should get a team in, but how many conference games in a 30 game schedule does a team need? Is 12 enough as an example?

RPI: Does an RPI of 'x' (say top 30) get a team in for sure? If a team is in the top 'y' (say 50) they are on the bubble?

Probably other factors like Kentucky ends up with an RPI of 55, is 12-18 conference, but won 2/3 at #1 overall seed Florida, that helps them with the selection committee, correct?
 
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#4
#4
In this league, as long as you shoot for .500 in conference play, the RPI will take care of itself. You want to win your midweek 200+ RPI games as well.
 
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#6
#6
From what I can tell, at least for an SEC team, the recipe for a regional bid is fairly simple. At the very least you should: win the bulk of your pre-conference schedule games, go .500 or better in conference play, and not have too many midweek blunders which can be rpi killers.

Because the conference is so strong, having a top 40 rpi shouldn't be an issue if the above is achieved. SEC teams have also received bids in the past with a sub .500 conference record if their rpi is high enough. 14-16 teams and even a few 13-17 teams have made it.
 
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#7
#7
If you use the old guideline of winning your home series and not getting swept on the road in SEC play, we are really only one game behind where we need to be.

This weekend, winning 2 would leave us still one game behind, losing 2 would leave us 2 games behind and a sweep would put us right back where we need to be.
 
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#8
#8
OOC midweeks left are very weak. No worse than 5-1 should happen.

With that being said this team needs 14 SEC wins to get an at large IMO.

Unless I can't count that's 33 total wins
 
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#9
#9
Last season...

Missouri 15-15, 56 RPI, 10 SOS - Did not get in

Kentucky: 14-15, 60 RPI, 30 SOS - Did not get in

Auburn 13-17, RPI 24, SOS 4 - Got in

Ole Miss 15-14, RPI 39, SOS 3 - Got in

NC State 15-14, RPI 22, SOS 17 - Got in...


The perception last year was that the west was stronger than the east and Missouri and UK paid the price...
 
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#10
#10
vol66 said:
Last season...

Missouri 15-15, 56 RPI, 10 SOS - Did not get in

Kentucky: 14-15, 60 RPI, 30 SOS - Did not get in

Auburn 13-17, RPI 24, SOS 4 - Got in

Ole Miss 15-14, RPI 39, SOS 3 - Got in

NC State 15-14, RPI 22, SOS 17 - Got in...


The perception last year was that the west was stronger than the east and Missouri and UK paid the price...
Click to expand...

How many total wins those team have?
 
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#11
#11
BruinVol said:
How many total wins those team have?
Click to expand...

Doesn't really matter...having an RPI of 40 or better does though...Auburn was 36-26 overall, they beat UK in the SEC tourney...so they won 1 game at Hoover, it probably cost UK a bid, though I don't think any SEC team has ever made a regional with an RPI over 50.

Obviously a team with 30+ wins and a top 10 SOS is meaningful, even if we win all of our midweek games, which we would have to do we probably won't have that kind of SOS because, for the most part there are no good OOC wins and a loss from here on out would be considered a "bad loss".
 
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#12
#12
From what I've seen you need around mid 30 wins. 33+ just off the top of my head those teams that didn't make it in the east last year had at most 30 wins.

If we win 14 conference games we should end up with 37-38 wins (assuming we win most of the ooc games left). I would expect that would get us in.
 
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#13
#13
vol66 said:
Doesn't really matter...having an RPI of 40 or better does though...Auburn was 36-26 overall, they beat UK in the SEC tourney...so they won 1 game at Hoover, it probably cost UK a bid, though I don't think any SEC team has ever made a regional with an RPI over 50.

Obviously a team with 30+ wins and a top 10 SOS is meaningful, even if we win all of our midweek games, which we would have to do we probably won't have that kind of SOS because, for the most part there are no good OOC wins and a loss from here on out would be considered a "bad loss".
Click to expand...

Agreed rpi is huge but total wins directly effects that

Mizzu only had 29 last year and Kentucky only has 30. Hard to imagine a top 50 rpi with at least 32 wins
 
#14
#14
Interesting that KR is saying here that Arkansas might not get in with 15-16 conference wins


@KendallRogersD1: Absolutely not. 130 RPI and honestly, I’m not bullish on the Hogs getting to 15-16 wins in the SEC at this point. https://t.co/sA3XxPAmEU


They had 8 SEC teams in there first mock field of 64 today
 
#15
#15
BruinVol said:
Interesting that KR is saying here that Arkansas might not get in with 15-16 conference wins


@KendallRogersD1: Absolutely not. 130 RPI and honestly, I’m not bullish on the Hogs getting to 15-16 wins in the SEC at this point. https://t.co/sA3XxPAmEU


They had 8 SEC teams in there first mock field of 64 today
Click to expand...

Part of the problem with Arkansas is they had the worst OOC schedule in the SEC.
 
#17
#17
@ethmark: Only 2 SEC teams w/ RPIs ranks 40 or worse have received at large bids. Texas A&M 42 ('14) & Ole Miss 40 ('08). Kentucky is 53; Bama is 60
 
#18
#18
BruinVol said:
@ethmark: Only 2 SEC teams w/ RPIs ranks 40 or worse have received at large bids. Texas A&M 42 ('14) & Ole Miss 40 ('08). Kentucky is 53; Bama is 60
Click to expand...

Both UK and Bama played themselves off the bubble with their play this past weekend.

The biggest issue now is how many sec teams the NCAA will want to take under any circumstance, because with so many teams that have to get in, they are probably ten times less likely to give the benefit of the doubt to another sec team. You are almost certainly going to see a few western teams get in over southeastern teams as a result. Not fair, not right, but it is what it is.
 
#19
#19
Mike Rapp said:
Both UK and Bama played themselves off the bubble with their play this past weekend.

The biggest issue now is how many sec teams the NCAA will want to take under any circumstance, because with so many teams that have to get in, they are probably ten times less likely to give the benefit of the doubt to another sec team. You are almost certainly going to see a few western teams get in over southeastern teams as a result. Not fair, not right, but it is what it is.
Click to expand...

You might find the spots taken up by cusa teams.

Rice FAU Southern miss are all locks for sure. La tech is as well IMO.

Marshall might make a 5th team from that league get in.
 
#20
#20
BruinVol said:
You might find the spots taken up by cusa teams.

Rice FAU Southern miss are all locks for sure. La tech is as well IMO.

Marshall might make a 5th team from that league get in.
Click to expand...

La tech is definitely in, but southern miss and rice have pretty much been at large locks quite some time.
 
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