NCAA Tournament in jeopardy?

[bballnut90]

Alright, I'm not going to sugarcoat this--the team looks bad and the start to the season could not have been a whole lot worse than this. I know it's extremely early in the season, but I'm legitimately nervous about the LVs chances of making the NCAAs this year. Look at the schedule breakdown:

Tennessee has a couple of chippy games against Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Troy, and UNC-W which should be gimme wins. Tennessee needs to go 4-0 against these clubs, and I think they will.

During that stretch they also have to play Baylor at home (likely a loss), Texas on the road (loss), and Stanford at home (likely loss.) Nabbing one or two wins would be great, realistically I think UT goes 0-3 unless they can beat Stanford.

If they lose those 3 and win the gimme games, they'll go 4-3 during this stretch, and Tennessee will be 7-5 entering conference play. They'll face ND at home later in the season which is pretty much a guaranteed loss, putting Tennessee at 7-6 for their OOC schedule.

In conference play, Tennessee is predicted to finish 3rd, but looking at their schedule, this is how I see it broken down:

Games they'll likely lose:
-Mississippi State home
-Mississippi State away
-South Carolina away
-Florida away
-Kentucky home


Games that are tossups:
-Florida Home
-Vanderbilt Away
-Auburn Home
-Missouri Home

Games that should be wins:
-Ole Miss away
-LSU home
-Vandy home
-Georgia away
-Texas A&M home
-Alabama away
-Arkansas home

5 games they'll lose, 4 tossups, 7 wins. I think their record will be somewhere between 7-9 to 11-5....probably 9-7 or 8-8 if we take an average. Let's say they go 9-7. They'll likely win a first round game in the SEC tournament and lose in the quarterfinals or semifinals. Say they go 1-1 there.

Their total record is 17-14 entering the NCAA tournament. Is that going to be good enough to get it? Who knows.

Obviously, this is very premature and a lot can change (for good or bad), but early on all signs are pointing toward another rough season in Knoxville. In 2008-09 and even last year, I never contemplated that Tennessee doesn't make the tournament, but the results thus far aren't convincing me Tennessee is a tournament caliber team.

 

[Darth_Vol]

I think this is actually a very legitimate concern...

 

[508mikey]

will lose 3 of the next 5

 

[sccshortstop]

Alright, I'm not going to sugarcoat this--the team looks bad and the start to the season could not have been a whole lot worse than this. I know it's extremely early in the season, but I'm legitimately nervous about the LVs chances of making the NCAAs this year. Look at the schedule breakdown:

Tennessee has a couple of chippy games against Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Troy, and UNC-W which should be gimme wins. Tennessee needs to go 4-0 against these clubs, and I think they will.

During that stretch they also have to play Baylor at home (likely a loss), Texas on the road (loss), and Stanford at home (likely loss.) Nabbing one or two wins would be great, realistically I think UT goes 0-3 unless they can beat Stanford.

If they lose those 3 and win the gimme games, they'll go 4-3 during this stretch, and Tennessee will be 7-5 entering conference play. They'll face ND at home later in the season which is pretty much a guaranteed loss, putting Tennessee at 7-6 for their OOC schedule.

In conference play, Tennessee is predicted to finish 3rd, but looking at their schedule, this is how I see it broken down:

Games they'll likely lose:
-Mississippi State home
-Mississippi State away
-South Carolina away
-Florida away
-Kentucky home


Games that are tossups:
-Florida Home
-Vanderbilt Away
-Auburn Home
-Missouri Home

Games that should be wins:
-Ole Miss away
-LSU home
-Vandy home
-Georgia away
-Texas A&M home
-Alabama away
-Arkansas home

5 games they'll lose, 4 tossups, 7 wins. I think their record will be somewhere between 7-9 to 11-5....probably 9-7 or 8-8 if we take an average. Let's say they go 9-7. They'll likely win a first round game in the SEC tournament and lose in the quarterfinals or semifinals. Say they go 1-1 there.

Their total record is 17-14 entering the NCAA tournament. Is that going to be good enough to get it? Who knows.

Obviously, this is very premature and a lot can change (for good or bad), but early on all signs are pointing toward another rough season in Knoxville. In 2008-09 and even last year, I never contemplated that Tennessee doesn't make the tournament, but the results thus far aren't convincing me Tennessee is a tournament caliber team.

If they finish in the top 4 in the conference yes. If we have a losing record which I think is more than possible you know the answer. Right now I am not sure who they can beat in the conference. Nothing is a sure thing with this whole crew!!:snoring::snoring::snoring::snoring:

 

[YankeeVol]

17-14 won't get in the Tourney

 

[Rickster]

They are just five games into the season. I think it is a bit early to write them off.

 

[Nuyoika]

17-14 won't get in the Tourney

I think they were 19-13 before the tournament last year and still got in. It's really not the number of losses that would hurt them if it even comes to that it's where they finish in the SEC & how many they win in their 4 big OOC games. For example if they win 2 of those 4 big games vs ND, Baylor, Texas, & Stanford and finish above 10th in conference I think they still get in.

The luxury of playing in the SEC is that you can end up as far down as 8th or 9th in the conference itself and still make the tourney. How tough their OOC schedule is will help them even if they play poorly in it because of how weak some other teams OOC schedule is. I'm pretty sure they would have to completely tank the rest of the season to not get in. I'm talking 19+ losses AND end 11th in the SEC AND not win any of those 4 big games. I'm doubtful all that would happen in one season.

 

[mike099]

This talk about the tournament gave me a chuckle. I still remember the commercial(Coors?), where the NFL coach was asked about the playoffs.

Playoffs, Playoffs, do not get me started about Playoffs.

 

[alexvol]

This team will be fortunate to break even this year.....and yes they will not make the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in history.Will that be enough to demand a change in the head Coach.....probably not.

 

[TennFan]

Concerned with this year's Lady Vols team. They might win 18-20.

 

[sccshortstop]

This team will be fortunate to break even this year.....and yes they will not make the NCAA tourney for the 1st time in history.Will that be enough to demand a change in the head Coach.....probably not.

100% agree. Would love to not feel this way but HW is what it is. She is not going anywhere with the lack of a new AD and the new chancellor coming in . To much title 9 junk still hanging around.:thud:

 

[Phatty]

It's infuriating that they are playing so badly. Diamond and Mercedes ALONE should be able to 3/4 of the games on our schedule. We made the elite 8 last year. We lost Graves a Senior to graduation and Cooper a Freshman to injury. It's not like it should be a rebuilding year.

It just feels like every year we are starting over and I don't understand why. Actually I do: it's the coach. That's the constant.

 

[LVJeff]

It's infuriating that they are playing so badly. Diamond and Mercedes ALONE should be able to 3/4 of the games on our schedule. We made the elite 8 last year. We lost Graves a Senior to graduation and Cooper a Freshman to injury. It's not like it should be a rebuilding year.

It just feels like every year we are starting over and I don't understand why. Actually I do: it's the coach. That's the constant.

Well, no two players by themselves are going to beat any other D1 teams. But I get your point. The team is talented.

But then again, are they?

I am slowly moving in the direction that the players on this team aren't very talented basketball-wise as much as is commonly accepted. This is DeShields 3rd (or 4th, I forget) year of playing basketball and the two constants are low shooting percentage and high turnover's. Reynolds has a career scoring and assist average of 6 and 3. Russell it has been pointed out can't move very well. Couple all this with a bad coach, and a bunch of losses can't be very surprising.

But talent-wise, I don't think these players are all that much to brag about. But most I think disagree with me.

 

[clkou]

But talent-wise, I don't think these players are all that much to brag about. But most I think disagree with me.

I played middle school basketball with a set of kids that won the district tournament. I moved across town and went to the high school with the kids that got 4th in the district, however, by our Senior year, we were the better team and the players who were first were now 4th or worse. The difference was coaching. The coach I played for in High School won a state championship with a different school before transferring to us. He got the most out of his players. The players I had played with were playing for a mediocre coach who had never accomplished anything.

Good coaches take AVERAGE talent like what Penn State and Virginia Tech had and make them do better than other coaches would have them perform.

Bad coaches, like ours, take awesome talent and have them underachieve and look bad.

Do Diamond and Mercedes not look as good as they should? Yes, but that's because of the coaching IMO. Both Diamond and Mercedes have a long record of playing for other teams and doing well. They only struggle with one team: the one with the coach who has a track record of underachieving.

 

[UTLadyvolsfan]

Between Diamond, Mercedes and Jaime, there is no reason we should end the season at 17-14. I refuse to entertain that thought. Having said that, perhaps it's something we should "hope" for (in a sick way), because that might be the ONLY way Holly is asked to step down.

Please note I'm NOT advocating we "root for the team to lose"... But if Holly really does need to do, how do we make that happen?

 

[LVJeff]

I played middle school basketball with a set of kids that won the district tournament. I moved across town and went to the high school with the kids that got 4th in the district, however, by our Senior year, we were the better team and the players who were first were now 4th or worse. The difference was coaching. The coach I played for in High School won a state championship with a different school before transferring to us. He got the most out of his players. The players I had played with were playing for a mediocre coach who had never accomplished anything.

Good coaches take AVERAGE talent like what Penn State and Virginia Tech had and make them do better than other coaches would have them perform.

Bad coaches, like ours, take awesome talent and have them underachieve and look bad.

Do Diamond and Mercedes not look as good as they should? Yes, but that's because of the coaching IMO. Both Diamond and Mercedes have a long record of playing for other teams and doing well. They only struggle with one team: the one with the coach who has a track record of underachieving.

I appreciate your response. I have no idea about Russell, but as far as Diamond is concerned, I'll offer this: her numbers her freshman season at UNC are very similar to the numbers she puts up at UT. She had much better teammates at guard at UNC than she has at UT IMO. But still, I understand your point. Holly isn't getting much out of these last few teams of hers.

 

[Amb3096]

I played middle school basketball with a set of kids that won the district tournament. I moved across town and went to the high school with the kids that got 4th in the district, however, by our Senior year, we were the better team and the players who were first were now 4th or worse. The difference was coaching. The coach I played for in High School won a state championship with a different school before transferring to us. He got the most out of his players. The players I had played with were playing for a mediocre coach who had never accomplished anything.

Good coaches take AVERAGE talent like what Penn State and Virginia Tech had and make them do better than other coaches would have them perform.

Bad coaches, like ours, take awesome talent and have them underachieve and look bad.

Do Diamond and Mercedes not look as good as they should? Yes, but that's because of the coaching IMO. Both Diamond and Mercedes have a long record of playing for other teams and doing well. They only struggle with one team: the one with the coach who has a track record of underachieving.

A-freakin'-Men.

Put these same players on a different team with a capable coach, and they will become much, much better players than what they are now.

It's not that the players are overrated; it's that the coaching is awful.

 

[Amb3096]

As far as Diamond is concerned, I'll offer this: her numbers her freshman season at UNC are very similar to the numbers she puts up at UT.

The difference between UNC Diamond and Tennessee Diamond is that she had more confidence and swagger at UNC. She looks like she's second guessing herself playing for Tennessee, and it's affecting her performance. She was damn good as a freshman because she had a winner's mentality. She doesn't have that anymore.

 

[Darth_Vol]

Bad coaches, like ours, take awesome talent and have them underachieve and look bad.

Do Diamond and Mercedes not look as good as they should? Yes, but that's because of the coaching IMO. Both Diamond and Mercedes have a long record of playing for other teams and doing well. They only struggle with one team: the one with the coach who has a track record of underachieving.

I can only think of one player who improved significantly under Holly, and that was Isabelle Harrison. Most show minimal to no improvement, or actually regress. Graves was a better player as a freshman than as a senior....

 

[Bellevue vol]

I think they were 19-13 before the tournament last year and still got in. It's really not the number of losses that would hurt them if it even comes to that it's where they finish in the SEC & how many they win in their 4 big OOC games. For example if they win 2 of those 4 big games vs ND, Baylor, Texas, & Stanford and finish above 10th in conference I think they still get in.

The luxury of playing in the SEC is that you can end up as far down as 8th or 9th in the conference itself and still make the tourney. How tough their OOC schedule is will help them even if they play poorly in it because of how weak some other teams OOC schedule is. I'm pretty sure they would have to completely tank the rest of the season to not get in. I'm talking 19+ losses AND end 11th in the SEC AND not win any of those 4 big games. I'm doubtful all that would happen in one season.

"If....and finish above 10th in the conference". Is the most frightening thing in this whole thread. The thought that finishing in the top 10 of the SEC is now potentially an"if".

 

[Darth_Vol]

Between Diamond, Mercedes and Jaime, there is no reason we should end the season at 17-14. I refuse to entertain that thought. Having said that, perhaps it's something we should "hope" for (in a sick way), because that might be the ONLY way Holly is asked to step down.

Please note I'm NOT advocating we "root for the team to lose"... But if Holly really does need to do, how do we make that happen?

Stop going to games. Stop making donations.

 

[NoBackBoard]

Well, no two players by themselves are going to beat any other D1 teams. But I get your point. The team is talented.

But then again, are they?

I am slowly moving in the direction that the players on this team aren't very talented basketball-wise as much as is commonly accepted. This is DeShields 3rd (or 4th, I forget) year of playing basketball and the two constants are low shooting percentage and high turnover's. Reynolds has a career scoring and assist average of 6 and 3. Russell it has been pointed out can't move very well. Couple all this with a bad coach, and a bunch of losses can't be very surprising.

But talent-wise, I don't think these players are all that much to brag about. But most I think disagree with me.

That is the part that infuriates me. The players clearly look bad, but Holly recruited them. It appears she's less than adequate at evaluating talent. She's a former pg but our pg play is atrocious. It feels like she can't even get that part right. Sigh.

 

[alexvol]

I can only think of one player who improved significantly under Holly, and that was Isabelle Harrison. Most show minimal to no improvement, or actually regress. Graves was a better player as a freshman than as a senior....

Yep .....right on target.

 

[allenfan1]

Alright, I'm not going to sugarcoat this--the team looks bad and the start to the season could not have been a whole lot worse than this. I know it's extremely early in the season, but I'm legitimately nervous about the LVs chances of making the NCAAs this year. Look at the schedule breakdown:

Tennessee has a couple of chippy games against Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Troy, and UNC-W which should be gimme wins. Tennessee needs to go 4-0 against these clubs, and I think they will.

During that stretch they also have to play Baylor at home (likely a loss), Texas on the road (loss), and Stanford at home (likely loss.) Nabbing one or two wins would be great, realistically I think UT goes 0-3 unless they can beat Stanford.

If they lose those 3 and win the gimme games, they'll go 4-3 during this stretch, and Tennessee will be 7-5 entering conference play. They'll face ND at home later in the season which is pretty much a guaranteed loss, putting Tennessee at 7-6 for their OOC schedule.

In conference play, Tennessee is predicted to finish 3rd, but looking at their schedule, this is how I see it broken down:

Games they'll likely lose:
-Mississippi State home
-Mississippi State away
-South Carolina away
-Florida away
-Kentucky home


Games that are tossups:
-Florida Home
-Vanderbilt Away
-Auburn Home
-Missouri Home

Games that should be wins:
-Ole Miss away
-LSU home
-Vandy home
-Georgia away
-Texas A&M home
-Alabama away
-Arkansas home

5 games they'll lose, 4 tossups, 7 wins. I think their record will be somewhere between 7-9 to 11-5....probably 9-7 or 8-8 if we take an average. Let's say they go 9-7. They'll likely win a first round game in the SEC tournament and lose in the quarterfinals or semifinals. Say they go 1-1 there.

Their total record is 17-14 entering the NCAA tournament. Is that going to be good enough to get it? Who knows.

Obviously, this is very premature and a lot can change (for good or bad), but early on all signs are pointing toward another rough season in Knoxville. In 2008-09 and even last year, I never contemplated that Tennessee doesn't make the tournament, but the results thus far aren't convincing me Tennessee is a tournament caliber team.

It is the same old thing that I have said before, "SHE CAN'T COACH" or prepare a team. You would think that she loves the Lady Vols enough to just walk away, but I don't see that happening. We go farther down in the rankings every year. I wonder at what point the AD understands what is going on.

 

[clkou]

Not just Holly I'm mad at everyone around the program. SOMEONE with some influence should have got in someone's ear and let them know there's a problem. When the fans know what's up and the AD just acts like everything is fine, then it's evidence of a bigger problem.