The Unofficial 2015 French Open Thread

#1
kidbourbon

kidbourbon

Disgusting!
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#1
Wednesday is actually day 2 of the event -- and the second round of qualies -- so I figured there was no reason not to go ahead and fire this bad boy up.

The qualification draw has 128 players for 16 spots in the main draw. Wednesday is the second round and then thursday's matches will give us the 16 who make it in the show. I don't know whether they make the draw that night or the next day, but either way we should be able to start breaking down the main draw by the end of the week.

The biggest question about the main draw-- and the elephant in the room of this tournament -- is whether those filthy frenchies are gonna put Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the same side of the draw. I really really really hope they don't because it will make for a much less interesting tournament.

Because, as I see it, there are only two men who have any chance of winning this tournament, and I've already mentioned their names. Djokovic is definitely the odds on favorite at this point. He's the best player in the world, and he's in fine form, and he wants this tournament badly. I have money on him in real life winning the whole thing, and I'm pretty confident that I didn't just give my money away in making said play.

Many of you will go with the "but you can never count out Nadal at Roland Garros" refrain, and I understand all that, but the guy can't just keep winning this tournament in perpetuity. He's gonna lose at some point, and I think this is the year. He's just not Rafael Nadal right now. The Rafael Nadal I know about doesn't lose twice to Fabio Focking Fognini on clay courts, and has no trouble summarily dispatching Stan Wawrinka. And for the love of all things sacred, he surely would never lose a match on the dirt to the likes of one Andy Murray.

Ugh. I feel queasy.

I'm looking forward to chatting with the usual tennis posters for the next two and a half weeks, and to those posters I say hello.

[youtube]LN87QJbl10[/youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLN87QJbl10
 
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#3
#3
Hello, KidB. I always enjoy the way you open these up. It's done in fine form.

I'm totally with you on the pick. Seems like even a couple years ago we would debate the 'Djokovich or the field?' question. If someone were to approach you and offer you the same bet now, would you take it? I would, and I'd take Djokovich.
For years, the discussion was always 'which do you take, Rafa or Roger?' That will never be the question again, unfortunately. I love both and wish one would win it, but that can be filed in the 'ain't gonna happen' folder. I can think of about a half-dozen players that probably stand a better chance this time. Berdych, Nishikori, Fognini, whom you mentioned, Dmitrov, and even Agut or Thiem, Ferrer, Cilic or Wawrinka, and throw in Bellucci, who is coming on.
I will never mention the name Milo....nvm, again. I just won't bring that cat up til he wins a major. Anyway, as usual, I'll probably kick back and watch you and Dyron go back and forth. You both know tennis better than I, and it's entertaining :)
 
#4
#4
Djokovic is the favorite and it will be an upset if anyone else wins this year-- even Rafa. Think about that statement. That's not so much an indictment of Djokovic as it is the reality about the state of Nadal's game. It is simply atrocious as of late. I've watched these matches he's lost recently and it is inexplicable. To me, it's a mental issue.

However, Rafa can win this thing this year because he owns this slam. And I wouldn't be stunned if he found his form in Paris. If so, all bets are off.

But even an in-form Rafa would have a battle if he met a career-peak level Djokovic along the way. That could potentially be very early with Nadal's ranking hovering around 7 or 8. Yikes.

Honestly, I don't like anyone else's chances. If not Djokovic, then Nadal. If not Nadal, then Djokovic.

Djokovic is in such form that he is imposing his will on every other player. Merciless.

Bottomline for me: bet the farm on the Djoker but don't be shocked if the Raging Bull is biting the cup for a tenth time on championship Sunday.

Insightful, I know.
 
#6
#6
Top half of draw is absurd. Potential Nadal v. Dimitrov 4th round; Nadal v. Djokovic quarter-final; Nadal/Djokovic winner v. Murray semi-final just to get to play in final!

Monfils-Federer fourth round in bottom-half of draw. Monfils has a two-match win streak against Federer and it will be three if they both see the 4th round. Bottom half is wide open for someone to breakthrough....and be slaughtered in the final.

Top half is epic.
 
#9
#9
Looking at the Nadal draw - absolutely brutal. Gonna be difficult to say the least to get through the likes of Dolgopolov, Mannarino and Dmitrov without being a bit tattered around the edges - and all for the prize of meeting Djokovich in the quarters.
 
#10
#10
A breakdown of the draw:

Djoker's Quarter:
Djokovic toyed with Nieminem today, letting him go up 4-1 before winning the set 7-5. I suppose he has to do things like this to keep it interesting. He's basically playing a different sport right now. He gets the winner of Muller/Lorenzi, which is ongoing as I type this and which matters only to those two players and to those who may have money on them (not me), because Djokovic will work either of them over. He'll also work over one of the Aussie connection Kokkinakis/Tomic and will crush the hearts and souls of Frenchies everywhere by roundly dominating Richard Gasquet in the round of 16. Then there's the quarters. We'll get to that.

Nadal gets Almagro next round, and might have some difficulty against the fellow spaniard but in accordance with the Spanish Tennis Hierarchical Rules of Engagement, he will likely not lose the match. At the end of the day, Almagro is still sort of a puss, and Rafa isn't. So, even if Almagro gets a set with his decent little one-hander and his substantially satisfactory serve, he'll eventually poop all over his britches like Randy Marsh before him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vu5qkv73Lvw

Nadal will have even less trouble in the third round. It was looking like he would get Dimitrov in the round of 16, but that is substantially up in the air at this point, given that Jack Sock is up two sets to love on on him and appears to be poised to finish the drill. I've always thought Grgor was shaky. Baby Fed is officially not living up to his nickname. Rafa may have more trouble with a heavy hitter like Sock if it comes to that, but I'm not convinced that Sock will win out if he does prevail today. I could certainly see Robredo or Coric beating him. I have to like Rafa's chances against anybody coming out of there, and so it does look like we'll get the greatest quarterfinal match in the history of the tournament.

I'm a huge Rafa homer, but I just can't see anybody beating Novak Djokovic right now. I've said it before and I'll say it again: dude is just in a different world right now. Bummer for Rafa to get Novak in the draw in the quarters, but I guess that's what he gets for letting himself fall down to #7 in the world.

Andy Murray Quarter:
Murray has actually been playing some solid ball on his heretofore least favorite surface. But he certainly doesn't have a cakewalk to the semis. He very likely will get Nick Kyrgios in the third round and Nick Kyrgios is crazy dangerous and loves the big stage. I still think Murray wins that - though it isn't a sure thing -- and will get one of several pseudo-contenders in the quarters. You've got the little beast David Ferrer who just keeps grinding away, and who I have to consider the favorite to get into the quarters, but other guys could potentially beat him. Cilic has a puncher's chance, but on clay that could be tricky. And, well, actually that's about it. I think Ferrer should probably come out of there. Murray v. Ferrer would be interesting. You've got the better player v. the more traditional clay court grinder. In Murray's current form, I have to go with him, though.

We'll then get Murray v. Djoker, and this sounds crazy even as I write it, but it could be that Murray -- with his style that tends to frustrate Djoker -- has the best chance of beating the Serbian Juggernaut. Djoker is too poised, though, i don't see him not winning this tournament.

Berdych Quarter:
What a weak ass quarter. I think Nishikori comes out of his. Berdy is usually pretty steady and doesn't tend to get upset early, but he certainly could get taken out by Jo Willie. I don't see anybody in Kei's half who I think has a reasonable chance of beating him. I'll go with Kei over Berdy in four sets.

Federer Quarter:
What an even weaker ass quarter. Just gross. Eh, I suppose Dominic Thiem or Gael Monfils can beat the great smug man if they get that far, with that always being a huge IF with respect to Mr. Monfils. I saw portions of his first round match against Roger-Vasselin and he appeared to be visibly winded. Gael Monfils: what a magnificent waste of talent. Don't get me started. Anyway, if he does get that far, he can certainly take out Fed as he has a two match winning streak over him, but perhaps we should cross that bridge when we get there.

The top half of this quarter is just absolutely gross. Stan the man is probably going to come out of there and he always enjoys laying down for his buddy Roger, and I don't see that being any different here.

If Kei comes out of his quarter, I like his chances to advance to the finals. If Berdy comes out, I like his chances less.

We could very well have a rematch of Wimbledon this year in the final, but I don't think such a rematch would produce as close a result. There could be a lot of nostalgiamoney on Federer in that one, which will make the odds closer than they really ought to be. Bet the Djoker, or kick back and enjoy your future bet on Djoker, or both. I think he's rolling.

Novak-Djokovic-008.jpg
 
#12
#12
Can't disagree with kidb's breakdown except I don't see Almagro giving Nadal much of a challenge. In fact, I haven't heard much about Almagro since he beat Nadal last year. Straight sets to Nadal.

Seems Nadal's movement is not up to standard and certain players are able to get Nadal out of position these days. Players are finding the open court and Nadal is a tick behind. He is also admittedly playing very nervous tennis in big moments. Who is to say if the years of grinding have caught up to Rafa? I do think he is clearly in the stage of his career where losses out of the blue will become more common. He's still Nadal though.

I agree with kid about Djokovic toying around with opponents -- almost like a cat playing with a mouse before making it lunch. Federer plays Djoker as well as anyone, but he can only manage one competitive set before Djokovic puts him out of his misery in their last few matches.

Murray is playing very well. But that is as far as I am willing to go right now.

In 2015, it is still hard for me to think beyond the Big 4. It's Djoker's world at the moment.
 
#13
#13
Monfils was at his most Monfilszy today in his 5 set win over Schwartzman. The little dude played an outstanding match taking a two sets to one lead and hitting the ball on every single point harder than I've ever seen it hit.

Monfils was erratic and inconsistent to start out. Typical. Then 2-2 in the 4th set, Monfils faced at least 3 huge breakpoints and saved each one. Once he held serve, Monfils came alive and took the match over. It was like he had been hit with an electric prod. If it wasn't Monfils, it would be stunning.

Fognini and Gulbis lost. Other than that, I think everything went as expected. Thiem and Verdasco also are out.
 
#14
#14
Had I seen the match in it's entirety, I would ALMOST believe that Jack Sock, an American male tennis player won and secured a spot in the second week of the French. Upon reflection, I think that I either dreamt it or imagined it, because this can't be right..
 
#15
#15
Can Sock find Nadal's backhand on Monday? If so, Sock has the stroke to make present-condition Nadal very uncomfortable. Unrealistic to think anyone other than Djokovic (or Murray?) could beat Nadal on the clay of Paris however. Will be Nadal's first Top 100 opponent this French Open.

Looking forward to Federer-Monfils tomorrow. It will be a good gauge as to exactly where Federer is at this moment in his career (after an early exit to Seppi in Australia). And if Monfils can't be bothered enough to 'show up' tomorrow against Federer in his home country slam, then that will be his lasting legacy.

My heart says Federer will pull out the win in 4. The head says la Monf in 3 or 5. Either way, finally the matches are shaping up to catch my interest.
 
#16
#16
DyronNix said:
Can Sock find Nadal's backhand on Monday? If so, Sock has the stroke to make present-condition Nadal very uncomfortable. Unrealistic to think anyone other than Djokovic (or Murray?) could beat Nadal on the clay of Paris however. Will be Nadal's first Top 100 opponent this French Open.

Looking forward to Federer-Monfils tomorrow. It will be a good gauge as to exactly where Federer is at this moment in his career (after an early exit to Seppi in Australia). And if Monfils can't be bothered enough to 'show up' tomorrow against Federer in his home country slam, then that will be his lasting legacy.

My heart says Federer will pull out the win in 4. The head says la Monf in 3 or 5. Either way, finally the matches are shaping up to catch my interest.
Click to expand...

Sock can be really really good. That forehand of his is filthy.
 
#17
#17
I can't wait until the greatest quarterfinal in the history of the french open. I don't know that I'll be able to watch it, though. The coverage of this year's FO has been terrible. Does ESPN not pick up coverage at some point?
 
#19
#19
DyronNix said:
Can't disagree with kidb's breakdown except I don't see Almagro giving Nadal much of a challenge. In fact, I haven't heard much about Almagro since he beat Nadal last year. Straight sets to Nadal.


(1)
Seems Nadal's movement is not up to standard and certain players are able to get Nadal out of position these days. Players are finding the open court and Nadal is a tick behind. He is also admittedly playing very nervous tennis in big moments. Who is to say if the years of grinding have caught up to Rafa? I do think he is clearly in the stage of his career where losses out of the blue will become more common. He's still Nadal though.

(2)
I agree with kid about Djokovic toying around with opponents -- almost like a cat playing with a mouse before making it lunch. Federer plays Djoker as well as anyone, but he can only manage one competitive set before Djokovic puts him out of his misery in their last few matches.

Murray is playing very well. But that is as far as I am willing to go right now.

In 2015, it is still hard for me to think beyond the Big 4. It's Djoker's world at the moment.
Click to expand...

(1)
I think Rafa's movement is okay. It looks better now than it has all season. I think it's just a confidence issue with his shotmaking. I see Djoker running him ragged.

(2)
On clay, I don't like Fed's chances.
 
#20
#20
kidbourbon said:
Kei is getting that ass whupped.
Stan is looking to take Fed out.
Click to expand...

I'm at work and haven't seen a single point. But I am not surprised at Wawa-Fed score. Despite the head-to-head, this matchup has swung Wawa's way in the past year.

I am surprised at the Tsonga-Kei score.
 
#21
#21
DyronNix said:
I'm at work and haven't seen a single point. But I am not surprised at Wawa-Fed score. Despite the head-to-head, this matchup has swung Wawa's way in the past year.

I am surprised at the Tsonga-Kei score.
Click to expand...

Stan just beat the funk out of Fed. He came out firing bombs from the word go and the match really never felt close. I think Stan will make it to the finals.

Good work by Tsonga to get it together for a fifth set run. I thought he was toast. I just saw a little bit of this match, but Kei looked really tired or injured or something. He just didn't have a lot of bounce in his step. He looked this way even in the fourth set when he was beating him. As noted above, I don't like his chances against Stan.

Nadal / Djokovic matches make me nervous. I'm nervous.
 
#22
#22
I've been realistic about Fed's chances for a few years. Doesn't even phase me anymore. Good run. Crapped the bed today. Grass season is his only legit shot.

An in form Wawrinka is unexpected and could add a twist to how this thing plays out. He can impose his will when he's "on." Really inconsistent this season though. Just whipped Nadal on clay.

Wouldn't it be nuts for Nadal to beat Djoker and Murray only to face an 'in form' Wawa in the final? Stan doesn't fear Nadal and would be confident. Getting way ahead of myself.

What say you about tomorrow's juggernaut? I say Djoker in 5. Nadal narrowly takes 1st set, blitzes Djoker in 4th. Djokovic takes 5th 7-5.
 
#23
#23
DyronNix said:
I've been realistic about Fed's chances for a few years. Doesn't even phase me anymore. Good run. Crapped the bed today. Grass season is his only legit shot.

An in form Wawrinka is unexpected and could add a twist to how this thing plays out. He can impose his will when he's "on." Really inconsistent this season though. Just whipped Nadal on clay.

Wouldn't it be nuts for Nadal to beat Djoker and Murray only to face an 'in form' Wawa in the final? Stan doesn't fear Nadal and would be confident. Getting way ahead of myself.

What say you about tomorrow's juggernaut? I say Djoker in 5. Nadal narrowly takes 1st set, blitzes Djoker in 4th. Djokovic takes 5th 7-5.
Click to expand...

I say Djokovic in 4. He's just on a different level right now. I'm totally okay with being wrong; I just don't see it happening. Djokovic has *almost* beaten Nadal the past three years and has dominated in short spurts in all three contests. The margin was very tight, and with Nadal taking a step back this season -- for whatever reason -- and Djokovic being at the very top of his game, I think that gets him over the hump and then some.
 
#24
#24
DyronNix said:
I've been realistic about Fed's chances for a few years. Doesn't even phase me anymore. Good run. Crapped the bed today. Grass season is his only legit shot.

An in form Wawrinka is unexpected and could add a twist to how this thing plays out. He can impose his will when he's "on." Really inconsistent this season though. Just whipped Nadal on clay.

Wouldn't it be nuts for Nadal to beat Djoker and Murray only to face an 'in form' Wawa in the final? Stan doesn't fear Nadal and would be confident. Getting way ahead of myself.

What say you about tomorrow's juggernaut? I say Djoker in 5. Nadal narrowly takes 1st set, blitzes Djoker in 4th. Djokovic takes 5th 7-5.
Click to expand...

I saw a portion of the match where Stan took out Nadal this year on clay. I think it was at Monte Carlo, but don't quote me on that. And I don't see him beating Rafa in a best out of five set match.

The way Murray is playing, I could see him getting past Rafa if he were to win, but I don't know that he beats Ferrer. If he does, I think that would be a serious test for Rafa if he manages to beat Djokovic. i can't believe I just wrote that.
 
#25
#25
Tomorrow, Nadal really stands in the way of Djokovic and the calendar year Grand Slam. That is how well Djokovic is playing. If Djokovic takes the French Open, he will have his eyes firmly set on accomplishing the near impossible.

All those years that Federer won 3 out of 4 slams, by the French he already knew the Grand Slam was off the table.

Tennis history hinges on tomorrow's quarter-final in a lot of ways for both players.

Like kidb, I am worked up for the match. Can you imagine how the players and their camps feel? Mercy.
 
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