The Unofficial 2015 Australian Open Thread

#1
kidbourbon

kidbourbon

Disgusting!
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Nov 12, 2005
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#1
Draws are out tomorrow. I'm pumped. Who's pumped?

More analysis to come. Needed to start this thread before somebody went and started an official one.
 
#2
#2
I am not pumped. Draw just came out. Not good.

In Federer's quarter are potential matchups v. Karlovic, Krygios, Dmitrov in early rounds. Murray in same quarter as Fed. Potential semi-final matchup with Nadal. Geezus.

Nadal potentially has to go through Rosol (3rd round), Gasquet (4th) and Berdych in Quarter just to meet Fed/Murray in semi-final.

Del Potro is back and in Djokovic's quarter along with Monfils and Raonic. Djoker v. Raonic quarter matchup.

Stan W has Kei in his quarter.

My "I-havent-thought-about-tennis-since-September"* early prognostication is Djokovic taking his 5th AO championship. Federer is playing well but can't last two weeks best of five. Nadal is vulnerable (meaning he's likely to take the hardware) and Murray should be back healthy. Stan isn't even in the conversation imo.

*I reserve the right to deny making these predictions as soon as they are proven wrong by actual events.
 
#4
#4
I'm actually gonna pick Raonic in this one. I know he's disappointed the last couple years, but he's finally coming along.
 
#8
#8
Hard to say about Nadal because mikhail youzhny looked so bad. He pretty much stopped trying at end of first set. He's not a name that'll be heard much longer on pro tour.

Nadal did blast some impressive down-the-line forehands -- you know the ones that curve out and then back inside the line? He is low on confidence and is over-spinning his shots causing them to drop short in the court. He didn't look bad at all.

I actually like Nadal's AO kit this year. Really bright colors that go well against the blue court. No homo.
 
#9
#9
DyronNix said:
Hard to say about Nadal because mikhail youzhny looked so bad. He pretty much stopped trying at end of first set. He's not a name that'll be heard much longer on pro tour.

Nadal did blast some impressive down-the-line forehands -- you know the ones that curve out and then back inside the line? He is low on confidence and is over-spinning his shots causing them to drop short in the court. He didn't look bad at all.

I actually like Nadal's AO kit this year. Really bright colors that go well against the blue court. No homo.
Click to expand...

Sold no homo.

I totally agree on Youzhny. I saw where Rafa drew him and I knew he wouldn't have any trouble. Youzhny was a good player at one point, but is pretty well washed up now.

Rafa is generally low on confidence, but don't you think a match like this helps him build it back up?
 
#10
#10
No doubt. Rafa has been a head case his entire career -- all 14 slam titles included. The longer he stays around, the better his chances are of winning. Rafa more so than anyone.

I've only seen a little of rafa's 1st match and snippets of others. Anyone standing out from the pack so far?
 
#11
#11
Nadal survives in 5 sets (7-5 in 5th) against guy who won Knoxville Open two years ago. I literally woke up to see the final two games. Think they had been on court over 4 hours.

Can't imagine Nadal is in very good form. Seemed to be favoring his left hand as well. On to the next.
 
#12
#12
DyronNix said:
No doubt. Rafa has been a head case his entire career -- all 14 slam titles included. The longer he stays around, the better his chances are of winning. Rafa more so than anyone.

I've only seen a little of rafa's 1st match and snippets of others. Anyone standing out from the pack so far?
Click to expand...

Wawrinka apparently looked good. I haven't been able to stay up late enough to watch any of the A-listers.
 
#13
#13
Striking that Nadal went to his knees in tears on matchpoint like he had just won the tourney. I thought it was out of character for him but maybe that's a testament to just where he is mentally. He truly survived being sent packing this morning.
 
#18
#18
He was on the verge of several breaks and could never win the big point. Coughed up a decent advantage in the fourth set tie break to end it also
 
#19
#19
The Fedhaters will be in overdrive trying to send him into retirement following this result. He may need to retire, but not because of this match. It was an anomaly to his recent success. Just a few weeks ago, he beat Murray 0 and 1, for example. Don't know what to make of this match really.

Fed looked out of sorts from the start and never really got into the match. Seppi played great and deserved to win, but Fed couldn't keep the ball within a foot of the baseline for most of the match. He also let two easy floaters go by him that dropped in, which just summed up the entire match.

Maybe it was an off-day, or age, or distraction, but he was never in the match. He wasn't worn down and wasn't bashed off the court either. Fed just couldn't keep ball in play. Again, Seppi played a very solid, smart match.

Fed didn't take an off-season in order to make strong attempt at deep run in Melbourne. This could be a huge step back for him near end of his career.
 
#20
#20
Federer was up a mini-break 5-3 in each tie-breaker. He was serving at 5-3 in the 4th set breaker and Seppi won next 4 points. I think. Had serve with 5 points in 2nd set breaker as well. Of course, I stayed up to watch this crap sammich of a match and am now at work so maybe my memory is fuzzy.

I'm not even pissed he lost, just that he looked so awful for most of the match. Good lord.
 
#21
#21
DyronNix said:
The Fedhaters will be in overdrive trying to send him into retirement following this result. He may need to retire, but not because of this match. It was an anomaly to his recent success. Just a few weeks ago, he beat Murray 0 and 1, for example. Don't know what to make of this match really.

Fed looked out of sorts from the start and never really got into the match. Seppi played great and deserved to win, but Fed couldn't keep the ball within a foot of the baseline for most of the match. He also let two easy floaters go by him that dropped in, which just summed up the entire match.

Maybe it was an off-day, or age, or distraction, but he was never in the match. He wasn't worn down and wasn't bashed off the court either. Fed just couldn't keep ball in play. Again, Seppi played a very solid, smart match.

Fed didn't take an off-season in order to make strong attempt at deep run in Melbourne. This could be a huge step back for him near end of his career.
Click to expand...


1. Everybody has bad matches
2. Seppi is not a bad player by any means. He usually bounces around the 20s and 30s in the rankings.

So, I think I agree with you. One thing to consider, though, is whether the back flare up he had against Wawrinka at the 02 -- which clearly affected him in Davis Cup -- is going to a lingering issue like it was for him in 2013.
 
#22
#22
The more I look at Rafa's draw, the more I think it's favorable for him.

The oddsmakers seem to think that KA presents a real threat -- Rafa's only a 3-1 favorite -- but I just don't see it happening. Assuming he wins that, he'll get the winner of Berdych and Tomic. Rafa's never really had problems with Berdych (he hasn't lost to him since he was a teenager, and he's beaten him 14 straight times), and do you really see Tomic beating Rafa with that junky game?*

Assuming he gets past that round, he's got one of Murray, Dimitrov, Kyrgios, or Seppi. Rafa has a great record against Murray; if Fed can't beat him then how's Baby Fed gonna do it; Seppi would have 0% chance of beating him, and I don't know that Kyrgios can replicate his Wimby magic on a hard court.

At that point, he'd be in the finals. I think you gotta like his chances to get there.



*Actually, I don't really know if Tomic is a good matchup for Rafa or not. I'm gonna think on it.
 
#23
#23
Fed said he just never got in the groove during his practice hit before the match and had an ominous feeling. Usually it works itself during the match, but said he just had a bad day.

I've watched Seppi in person and like him. Always thought he was close to breaking through, but he never did. He's played top players close before but luck has never found him when he needed it. Last night wasn't luck though.

Kevin Anderson has a big game on paper, but you can always count on him to beat himself. He ain't beating Nadal. I do think Nadal's run will fall short somewhere along the way. But, as you say, looking at the draw myself, I don't know where that happens.
 
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