Advanced Metrics Nonsense

#101
#101
n_huffhines said:
It's hard because you don't know how the minutes will be allocated. If Melo gets hurt, who is picking up his minutes? We know like clockwork Melo will play 35, but with him out, 10 minutes will go to player X, 8 minutes to player Y, etc. and all of that is subject to change on a nightly basis.
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One of the reasons I find it a bit dubious :)
 
#102
#102
Thanks for posting. We will have to check on this prediction throughout the season.

Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly does "age model" mean? Depreciating players based on age?
 
#105
#105
Interestingly PG is right there with PFs. It seems SG and SF are the easiest for teams to scout, although they obviously still get it very wrong at times.
 
#106
#106
n_huffhines said:
Interestingly PG is right there with PFs. It seems SG and SF are the easiest for teams to scout, although they obviously still get it very wrong at times.
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That is weird. If you can't scout a point guard then your an idiot and don't deserve to be a scout.
 
#107
#107
The NBA did its annual GM Survey. It’s without surprise that I was unimpressed. The same group that year after year thinks Kobe should take the last shot (they wised up this year and put him 2nd) does not instill much confidence. There was one category I had to do a double take:

Which player makes the most of limited natural ability?

1. Kevin Love, Minnesota — 34.5%

............

The simple truth is saying that Kevin Love doesn’t have natural ability makes little sense. As Patrick responded when he saw this — Why isn’t Isaiah Thomas on this list? After all, he’s under 6 feet in shoes, 187 pounds and slower down the court than Kevin Love. The polite response is that GMs don’t know how to properly analyze players that defy their expectations.
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Kevin Love and the Myth of Natural Ability
 
#111
#111
If so, I would have to say he is up there. Nash is up there. Lin (in that amazing stretch) was up there.
 
#112
#112
Nash? Nash is so quick. He's always been able to crossover good defenders and create space. Lin is a bigger PG, with good leaping ability. He also has more impressive numbers than Wall, Rose, and Irving in the 25 yard sprint (3 quarters court). I think you're falling into the same trap as the GMs.

SLAM ONLINE | » Life in the Fast Lane
 
#113
#113
n_huffhines said:
Nash? Nash is so quick. He's always been able to crossover good defenders and create space. Lin is a bigger PG, with good leaping ability. He also has more impressive numbers than Wall, Rose, and Irving in the 25 yard sprint (3 quarters court). I think you're falling into the same trap as the GMs.

SLAM ONLINE | » Life in the Fast Lane
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We are talking natural ability, not practiced skill.

Wall and Paul are much more physically gifted athletes at the point guard position.
 
#114
#114
K, I agree with Nash since besides being very quick, he has no physical presence and he became an all-time great, but Lin is physically gifted. No question.
 
#115
#115
n_huffhines said:
K, I agree with Nash since besides being very quick, he has no physical presence and he became an all-time great, but Lin is physically gifted. No question.
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You might be right. In all honesty, I have never watch him play a game. I was overseas during his breakout. I was just going off the fact that he was Asian. Racist much? lol
 
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#116
#116
Proj-1.png
 
#117
#117
huffhines... think the knicks actually get the two seed? Not questioning the whole graphic, that just stood out to me.
 
#118
#118
It depends on how the minutes are allotted, but they had an excellent offseason. Camby and Kidd, though old, were still very productive players last year. I could totally see Woodson playing Camby like 10 mpg or something stupid like that.
 
#119
#119
T-Wolves and Knicks stand out to me. We will be bumping this thread throughout the season.

Baker, you follow UT basketball?
 
#120
#120
When they play on ESPN...otherwise I get almost no coverage over here. I'm a big enough fan that a loss might ruin my night.
 
#121
#121
If the Knicks are the two seed and the nuggets win the west, I'll never antagonize, ridicule, laugh at, post a sarcastic response to, or annoy hines at all in any fashion. As a matter of fact, I'll only open the grizzlies thread in the Nba forum.

It isn't happening.
 
#122
#122
Dude, you can't annoy me. At times my take on basketball has elicited very insulting responses, but this is so fun for me. It's the internet. I just laugh it off.

What if NY is the 3 seed and Nuggets are the 2 seed? You still gonna think I'm an idiot?

Either way I don't want you to stop posting. Opposing viewpoints are what make it interesting.
 
#124
#124
n_huffhines said:
Dude, you can't annoy me. At times my take on basketball has elicited very insulting responses, but this is so fun for me. It's the internet. I just laugh it off.

What if NY is the 3 seed and Nuggets are the 2 seed? You still gonna think I'm an idiot?

Either way I don't want you to stop posting. Opposing viewpoints are what make it interesting.
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The funny thing is I don't think you're an idiot. I think it's idiotic how absolute you view it. I don't even disagree with what you're saying. The metrics you look at important but they don't tell the whole story. There is a human element and there are things that stats don't measure. Being able to balance the two in evaluating players is the important piece. To me, that makes for interesting debate. Pulling up a spreadsheet that says Jodie Meeks is better than Kobe Bryant* and accepting that as fact is idiotic to me. I also don't necessarily believe in extrapolating everyone's statistic on a per 36 min basis. In some cases it works (Ryan Anderson is a crown example I believe) but that isn't always the case. Some guys only get 8-14 minutes a game for reasons besides "Their coach is a moron." Just my opinion.

*Kobe isn't the best example because the level of hate he receives, but it was a recent comparison I remember being here
 
#125
#125
TBrown said:
The funny thing is I don't think you're an idiot. I think it's idiotic how absolute you view it. I don't even disagree with what you're saying. The metrics you look at important but they don't tell the whole story. There is a human element and there are things that stats don't measure. Being able to balance the two in evaluating players is the important piece. To me, that makes for interesting debate. Pulling up a spreadsheet that says Jodie Meeks is better than Kobe Bryant* and accepting that as fact is idiotic to me. I also don't necessarily believe in extrapolating everyone's statistic on a per 36 min basis. In some cases it works (Ryan Anderson is a crown example I believe) but that isn't always the case. Some guys only get 8-14 minutes a game for reasons besides "Their coach is a moron." Just my opinion.

*Kobe isn't the best example because the level of hate he receives, but it was a recent comparison I remember being here
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Yeah, but if the point is how they play during those 8-14 minutes. Assessing a player going from 5 mpg to 36 mpg, you wouldn't know what to expect really, but if you have a guy getting significant minutes you should know what to expect. Ex: somebody who gets 6 rpg at 24 mpg, you should fully expect them to do 9 rp 36 unless they are the Shawn Bradley type who absolutely cannot play 36 minutes.

I actually agree that metrics can't assess things 100%, I just find them far more trustworthy than scouting. As I've said time and time again, your eyes lie to you...you see Iverson miss a double-clutch layup in traffic and you "ooh" and "ahhh". You see Brooke Lopez' physical presence and you ignore the fact that he can't rebound. You see Marcin Gortat's goofy-ass clumsily make a layup....and you pick Iverson or Lopez over Gortat. That's what scouting is, in my mind.

The funny thing is I am reasoned enough to say Meeks being better than Kobe can not be a fact. I can flip that argument though, because the basketball establishment would likely say Kobe being better than Meeks is fact.
 
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