Reason No. 1: Aaron Murray is still too inconsistent
Murray showed tremendous progress last season on his way to setting a school record for touchdown passes in a season, but the blunt truth is that he still displayed some alarming inconsistency.
This showed up primarily in the area of passer rating, as Murray had four games where he tallied a mark lower than 110 in this metric.
That consistency will be tested in 2012 with the loss of first-team All-SEC tight end Orson Charles and the possible reduced role of Malcolm Mitchell (more on him later).
To illustrate just how damaging the loss of those two could be, take a look at Murray's numbers in a 12-game sample of his 2011 season. (Note: The sample includes the Bulldogs' 11 games against BCS-conference opponents and the contest against the Boise State Broncos.)
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 138 195 1152 9 4 5 23 5.9
Medium (11-19 yards) 45 71 736 8 4 3 29 10.3
Deep (20-29 yards) 8 30 273 7 2 1 15 9.3
Bomb (30+ yards) 11 34 558 3 1 2 25 16.2
Other (throwaways, etc.) 1 25 -3 0 3 0 0 -0.1
Total 203 355 2716 27 14 11 92 7.7
Vertical (11+ yards) 64 135 1567 18 7 6 69 11.6
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 19 64 831 10 3 3 40 13.0
Those are the types of numbers one would expect from an All-SEC passer.
But now check out his totals when the statistics for Charles and Mitchell are removed:
Route Depth Att Comp Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 127 86 724 7 2 5 23 5.7
Medium (11-19 yards) 42 25 391 6 0 2 22 9.4
Deep (20-29 yards) 20 6 186 5 1 1 15 9.6
Bomb (30+ yards) 26 7 331 3 1 2 25 12.7
Other (throwaways, etc.) 25 1 -3 0 3 0 0 -0.1
Total 240 125 1629 21 7 10 85 6.9
Vertical (11+ yards) 88 38 908 14 2 5 62 10.4
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 46 13 517 8 2 3 40 11.4
Murray lost nearly a yard off of his overall yards-per-attempt (YPA) total and lost even more than that on his vertical YPA and stretch vertical YPA.
For those who might contend that every quarterback would see this type of drop-off when throwing to alternate targets, there are two points to consider.
First, Murray still had Tavarres King, the team's leading receiver in 2011, to throw to. Second, Oklahoma State Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden was able to post Justin Blackmon-caliber numbers on aerials to receivers other than Blackmon.
This means Murray has a way to go to prove he can succeed when throwing to alternate targets.