NCAA Tournament Odds

#26
#26
Yea you're right, except if Florida beats UK we can technically get the 5 with a win. We beat vandy, UF over UK, and bama over Ole miss. That would leave us tied with bama and vandy. Vandy would get the 3, bama the 4, and us the 5.
That based on Vandy would be 2-1 vs us and bama
we would be 1-2
and bama would be 1-1.

Given all that we could win 4 and not be the SEC T champs. That being said that scenario isn't very likely.

Thanks, for the consenus. Reading throughout the internet. It appears we have to win the tournament to get in. Still think though there is an outside shot with a five team selection of the SEC and Miss St wheels falling off. We need the Second Seed to do it or an upset of KY from the 5th seed position.

4 games 4 days does not favor us but this team is conditioned to do it. LSU overtime game show us the other night how conditioned they were. The Second half of that game revealed to me that conditioning was far better than LSUs and many others. it is often overlooked. They finally hit bottom in the first minutes of overtime and caught their second wind half way through the overtime period.

Tommorrow's game will be a different level of play for them and they will win. It will be because of growth, confidence, experience and the conditioning. Home does not hurt. Sports writers often don't look beyond the numbers because Sports is about Stats and numbers.

CCM stated would would go to the dance and we may but he made that statement based on what he knew beyond the numbers. If he hadn't gone there we would be an 11 seed right now. So who do you trust more. The sports guru who knows nothing or the coach who knows the rest of the story.

The committee will hopefully see beyond the numbers. If they do and we win we go.
 
#28
#28
Thanks, for the consenus. Reading throughout the internet. It appears we have to win the tournament to get in. Still think though there is an outside shot with a five team selection of the SEC and Miss St wheels falling off. We need the Second Seed to do it or an upset of KY from the 5th seed position.

4 games 4 days does not favor us but this team is conditioned to do it. LSU overtime game show us the other night how conditioned they were. The Second half of that game revealed to me that conditioning was far better than LSUs and many others. it is often overlooked. They finally hit bottom in the first minutes of overtime and caught their second wind half way through the overtime period.

Tommorrow's game will be a different level of play for them and they will win. It will be because of growth, confidence, experience and the conditioning. Home does not hurt. Sports writers often don't look beyond the numbers because Sports is about Stats and numbers.

CCM stated would would go to the dance and we may but he made that statement based on what he knew beyond the numbers. If he hadn't gone there we would be an 11 seed right now. So who do you trust more. The sports guru who knows nothing or the coach who knows the rest of the story.

The committee will hopefully see beyond the numbers. If they do and we win we go.

IDK to be honest... some say no way, others say were likely to get in even with only 2 wins...

all i know is i don't want to have my hopes up come next sunday and be one of the bubble teams left out... only way to avoid that is to make sure were in with a SEC T Championship.
 
#29
#29
Funny you mention Shawn, I also emailed him...he said this

"- Even though committee doesnt officially look at last 10 or 12 anymore, they still logically look at whose been playing well of late. Tenn's clearly been better since January started, and because the committee can point to the addition of Stokes as opposed to saying its just chance, that'll help justify that they're a different team than earlier.
- For a long time, their big flaw was a lack of road wins, but they've won 3 in a row.
- Also, a lot of the projections are simply not as current as mine so they havent taken into account other teams losses while Tennessee keeps winning.

Shawn"

And if someone said he said we needed to beat Vandy and win just 1 in the conf tourny and were in, thats even better.
 
#30
#30
IDK to be honest... some say no way, others say were likely to get in even with only 2 wins...

all i know is i don't want to have my hopes up come next sunday and be one of the bubble teams left out... only way to avoid that is to make sure were in with a SEC T Championship.

I agree. Look at it this way with all the crap (NCAA, Players Departures, New Coach, New Philosophy of Basketball, Players out of position, less than SEC caliber players some, a high school player mid-season, suspension of Hall, pre season predictions, a loss to Austin Peay) Many felt this was a loss season thought it would be 3-4 years before we were in the position we are right now. With CCM you get production and progress at a constant pace. This team will always be seeking two levels better because of him. They have improved and will continue to do so even when most think they cannot get any better. He is a damn good coach that demands respect without asking for it and teaches excellence. All walk and no talk...
 
#31
#31
I agree. Look at it this way with all the crap (NCAA, Players Departures, New Coach, New Philosophy of Basketball, Players out of position, less than SEC caliber players some, a high school player mid-season, suspension of Hall, pre season predictions, a loss to Austin Peay) Many felt this was a loss season thought it would be 3-4 years before we were in the position we are right now. With CCM you get production and progress at a constant pace. This team will always be seeking two levels better because of him. They have improved and will continue to do so even when most think they cannot get any better. He is a damn good coach that demands respect without asking for it and teaches excellence. All walk and no talk...

Agree 100% regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, i think we have the right guy captaining the ship. On top of it i am extremely proud and glad to be a fan of this UT team. They have me as excited as i was when we were playing in the elite eight. The amount of heart and toughness shown since January started is incredible. Bunch of tough kids that i can't wait to see be even better next year!

Cam and Renaldo have had many ups and downs, but in the end im proud to call them Vols for life and ill continue to wish them nothing but success in the future
 
#32
#32
As much as Cam went through and the players he played with at UT I thought it was interesting how he could stick it out and contribute. His lack of production of late (offensively) maybe due to the aspects of his career winding down. The wall statement is indidicative and his making this statement tells me that CCM is a force to be reckon with and Cam knows it....

People do not realize how discipline these players have become under CCM. Yes they fight in practice but it is because of the attitude and intensity that CCM brings to the team as a whole. Nobody watches in practice
 
#33
#33
A 2 seeded UT with 2 wins in the SEC Tourny should make the dance.

By my rough calculations there is around a 20 to 25% chance UT gets the 2 seed and wins 2 games in the tourny.

70% chance that UT beats Vandy on SR night in a sold out TBA.
90% chance that UK beats UF in Fla.
70% chance that UT beats Ole Miss at a neutral site. (Miss is the 7 seed but they may not make it to this game it that would favor UT more to play a lower seed)
50% chance that UT beats Vandy at a neutral site. (Vandy is the 3 seed but they may not make it to this game and that would favor UT more to play a lower seed)

.7 * .9 * .7 * .5 = .2205 = 22.05%
 
#34
#34
just win tomorrow and then we will start getting alot more media attention as far as being a tourny team.if we are on the bubble i think the stokes factor helps us alot.the ncaa is always looking for story lines and we have a good one.
 
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#35
#35
just win tomorrow and then we will start getting alot more media attention as far as being a tourny team.if we are on the bubble i think the stokes factor helps us alot.the ncaa is always looking for story lines and we have a good one.

Excellent story line will be the push we need and I agree. Still have to win the games, but this will be the push that gets us in. We are in position now we need to close the deal.
 
#36
#36
True, the team has to be focusing on one game at a time, or we will lose to Vandy. Vandy has gotten much better as the year went along, but we have A LOT to play for tomorrow, especially after getting killed by them earlier in the year.

McRae and Stokes are going to be huge factors in the game tomorrow. I highly believe Stokes can outplay their Center. Hopefully Golden and Jenkins negate each other. McRae and Maymon may be the keys to this game. Refs should be good, they know they need a 5th solid SEC team in the NCAA's and the game is in Knoxville.
 
#37
#37
True, the team has to be focusing on one game at a time, or we will lose to Vandy. Vandy has gotten much better as the year went along, but we have A LOT to play for tomorrow, especially after getting killed by them earlier in the year.

McRae and Stokes are going to be huge factors in the game tomorrow. I highly believe Stokes can outplay their Center. Hopefully Golden and Jenkins negate each other. McRae and Maymon may be the keys to this game. Refs should be good, they know they need a 5th solid SEC team in the NCAA's and the game is in Knoxville.

I wish you had not stated that but I know what you mean. LOL.

I know one thing if this team makes the dance they will have earned it for sure against tremendous odds.
 
#38
#38
True, the team has to be focusing on one game at a time, or we will lose to Vandy. Vandy has gotten much better as the year went along, but we have A LOT to play for tomorrow, especially after getting killed by them earlier in the year.

I think CCM has them focused on one game at a time maybe even one possession at a time...but as a fan I am gonna look forward.
 
#40
#40
you didn't say anything about likely. You just said that they couldn't win 4 games without winning the tourney itself. And that's not true.

Meant to ask you yesterday, how much bump do your calculations give us if we win tomorrow?
Currently .5557
.005 to.006?
 
#42
#42
Meant to ask you yesterday, how much bump do your calculations give us if we win tomorrow?
Currently .5557
.005 to.006?

I did the math on staight change to winning percentage a while back. http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...0-official-rankings-thread-6.html#post6440174

Bsically what I get is a .0031 change in winning percentage. That's not correcting for any bump the RPI gets for Vandy's winning percentage. Plus I don't even try to guess at what all the other opponents and opponents opponents will do to the RPI. (I honestly think it is minimal at this point anyway). I was off on the LSU game by .0003, not too bad. :geek::geek:
 
#43
#43
I did the math on staight change to winning percentage a while back. http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...0-official-rankings-thread-6.html#post6440174

Bsically what I get is a .0031 change in winning percentage. That's not correcting for any bump the RPI gets for Vandy's winning percentage. Plus I don't even try to guess at what all the other opponents and opponents opponents will do to the RPI. (I honestly think it is minimal at this point anyway). I was off on the LSU game by .0003, not too bad. :geek::geek:
Really need a LOT of help if it's that low.
I figured a .oo5 and we still needed some help before Sunday to get a 10+ jump.
Did a recalc on my 15+. eerrnnt. Without any help you'll be pretty close.
 
#45
#45
Really need a LOT of help if it's that low.
I figured a .oo5 and we still needed some help before Sunday to get a 10+ jump.
Did a recalc on my 15+. eerrnnt. Without any help you'll be pretty close.

It is funny this season. I even watched some of the UNC-Asheville game last night. They have at least one more fan than usual for their conf touney final. The thing that is really killing UT is they have played at least 3 maybe 4 teams with sub 300 RPI. 2 of them were the 1st 2 games of the season, and I can't remember if UT scheduled them or if they were part of the warm-up to the Maui Classic. If they were part of the classic, it's not really fair if they are held against UT. Hopefully someone points that out to the committe as they look at UT's woeful OOC SOS and RPI.
 
#46
#46
joe lunardi...

SATURDAY: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (4 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN3)
The Volunteers are somehow near (and, with a win, solidly on) the at-large bubble.
 
#50
#50
According to the "Dance Card" which seems to be relatively accurate in the past. Tennessee has a 0.01% chance of going dancing.

NCAA Tournament "DanceCard" by Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, and Allen Lynch

We're the 14th team out

Essentially, we are the last team on the bubble.

So you're telling me there's a chance!

Screen+shot+2010-07-11+at+7.42.00+PM.png
 

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