Interesting Bracketology Odds

#1

SeniorDrill

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#1
Lots of info on the upcoming NCAA tournament and the odds of getting in with projected records. "Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself."
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/
 
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#2
#2
So this shows that if we lose to USCe and win out asides from an additional loss in SEC tourney (17-14) we would have a 26% chance of receiving a bid.
 
#3
#3
Unless I am reading that wrong that is worthless. It says Belmont has a 74% to get an at large if they lose the ovc tourney. That's ridiculous
 
#4
#4
So this shows that if we lose to USCe and win out asides from an additional loss in SEC tourney (17-14) we would have a 26% chance of receiving a bid.

It says if we lose to USCjr as well as another game during our last 5, making us 17-14, we have a 26% chance of making the tournament. I agree with that statement 100%.
 
#5
#5
I think it is showing Belmont's overall percentage for them to get a bid is 74%, which includes them getting a bid by winning conference tourney (57%), without conf tourney auto bid they would then have a 74-57=17% chance of at large bid.
 
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#6
#6
Unless I am reading that wrong that is worthless. It says Belmont has a 74% to get an at large if they lose the ovc tourney. That's ridiculous

Exactly. Belmont doesn't win the OVCT, they're headed to the NIT.
 
#7
#7
It says if we lose to USCjr as well as another game during our last 5, making us 17-14, we have a 26% chance of making the tournament. I agree with that statement 100%.

No, I think it includes an SEC tournament loss not an additional regular season loss, otherwise we would have 15 losses.
 
#8
#8
No, I think it includes an SEC tournament loss not an additional regular season loss, otherwise we would have 15 losses.

Kentucky has 5 games left and those projections are if they have only 5 games left without the SEC Tournament. I am assuming they would think they would win the SEC tourney which would give them a few more wins than projected. I do not think these projections include any conference tourneys.
 
#9
#9
Kentucky has 5 games left and those projections are if they have only 5 games left without the SEC Tournament. I am assuming they would think they would win the SEC tourney which would give them a few more wins than projected. I do not think these projections include any conference tourneys.

They are stating that UK has 47% chance of getting the "auto bid" in other words winning SEC tournament.
 
#11
#11
Kentucky has 5 games left and those projections are if they have only 5 games left without the SEC Tournament. I am assuming they would think they would win the SEC tourney which would give them a few more wins than projected. I do not think these projections include any conference tourneys.

But if we lose 2 more and then a 3rd at SEC tournament I think we have 0% chance of making field, not 24%.
 
#13
#13
I think it is showing Belmont's overall percentage for them to get a bid is 74%, which includes them getting a bid by winning conference tourney (57%), without conf tourney auto bid they would then have a 74-57=17% chance of at large bid.

17% is 17 to high For them and an at large.


They are counting the chaminade as a win in that 17-14 total
 
#14
#14
After looking at it, I think it projects our odds of making the tournament today not after their projected win/loss total. Our projected win loss total is 17-14 and our projected seed is blank because we aren't in. I think that as of today we have a 24% chance of making the field, which I agree with.
 
#18
#18
If UT only loses 1 more game-- that isn't Mizzou-- they probably have a 75% chance of being in the Tournament.

My question: if we lost two more the rest of the way, but then made it all the way to the SEC Championship game, what would our chances be? Would a 20-14 UT be in?
 
#19
#19
If UT only loses 1 more game-- that isn't Mizzou-- they probably have a 75% chance of being in the Tournament.

My question: if we lost two more the rest of the way, but then made it all the way to the SEC Championship game, what would our chances be? Would a 20-14 UT be in?

I believe they'd be 3-1 in SECT in that scenario, making them 19-15 if they finished the season 16-14...in that scenario I do think there's a very good chance that they'd be in.
 
#20
#20
No reason to throw Belmont under the bus because CRB can't devise a way to hold on to double digit leads
 
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#21
#21
No reason to throw Belmont under the bus because CRB can't devise a way to hold on to double digit leads

Throw them under the bus?

They won't need a bus if they lose the ovc tourney because they won't be dancing.
 
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#22
#22
The link in the OP updates daily. The odds for Tennessee dropped from 26% to 22% based on yesterday's games. It is a very complex calculation. Evidently, SOS weighs heavily. Georgia is 15-13 while Tennessee is 14-12 with both projected to win 3 and lose 2 the rest of the way but Tennessee has better odds to get a bid. 22% to 19%. Both are given a 1% chance of winning the SEC Tournament.
 
#23
#23
With the blow out win over Missouri, the Vols have moved back to a 25 per cent chance of getting in the Big Dance from 22 per cent. For those who scoffed at the statement I made about the win at ETSU helping Tennessee in SOS, the Buc's blow out win @Chattanooga moved their odds to 47 percent with only 36 percent of that attributed to winning their tournament. I also stick by my 5-5 split on a neutral floor. See, you can cheer for both teams. It's east Tennessee.
 
#24
#24
This teams history in the SECT is well known so I don't hang my hat on that. We need the USC win....period.
 
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