I think the NCAA tournament is possible but not probable. If UT had held on against UNC and the rest of the season played out as it has so far, a 12-8 Vols team would be looking pretty good for the tournament with a strong finish. But, UT did not beat UNC (obviously) and lost two games (Arkansas and Ole Miss) after building substantial leads. Heck, this team's resume would look much better with the UNC loss and holding on against either or both Arkansas and Ole Miss. The team is very young and inconsistent. So, if UT uses the UK win as a springboard and beats K-State, the tournament conversation starts being worth having. But, if UT does not beat K-State and remains inconsistent here on out, the NIT is best case scenario.
Personally, I think making either tournament will be good for the development of this team. Making the NCAA tournament for a likely one and out appearance (or a second game of the first weekend at best appearance) gives credibility to Barnes' program for recruiting, etc., and would give our young players a taste of the big-time. The downside would be the likely abbreviated nature of the appearance would not give as much time for development in practice. The NIT, on the other hand, will not provide as much validation for the program but, provided we win a couple of games or more, would give more time for this team to develop in preparation for next year. Irrespective of the outcome, I am excited about the direction of UT basketball for truly the first-time post-Bruce.