Hurricane Season 2010

[XtennesseeX]

We are off and running. We have our first tropical storm. It doesn't seem to be too threatening for the Gulf, thankfully.

[GASOUTHERNVOL]

I'm definatly curious to see if any other factors (oil spill) have a direct impact on the gulf hurricane season. With the way low pressure cells have been sitting it could be a wild ride.
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[TennTradition]

I'm going to be quite shocked if the oil spill is proven to have a significant (or even detectable) effect on tropical systems. I'm just hoping that a tropical system doesn't move up toward the LA,MS,AL, or FL coastlines to push the oil onto the shores. It looks like Alex is predicted to stay to the south, but this time of year tends to be a hotbed for gulf cyclonic activity....makes you wonder what is next.

[tumscalcium]

I don't expect anything from the storms this year. After 2005 (Katrina, which wasn't all that terrible of a storm in itself), we were supposed to have record-setting years ever since. Not a whole lot has happened here.

[TennTradition]

Originally Posted by tums

I don't expect anything from the storms this year. After 2005 (Katrina, which wasn't all that terrible of a storm in itself), we were supposed to have record-setting years ever since. Not a whole lot has happened here.

Warning...long post

I think that saying we were supposed to have record-setting years each year since 2005 isn't all that accurate. Also, I think that we could see some stronger storms this year, which I will get to in a bit. Also, it won't take a monster storm to cause problems for the coast with regard to the oil. Any tropical system will likely carry oil toward the shore - and if the system dose have a surge, then that means even larger areas being affected.

There are two ways to cut this - hurricane frequency and hurricane intensity. The predictions are best at getting the frequency right...and not as good at getting intensity. However, they aren't fantastic at getting either (their error bars are quite large if you look at the forecast).

For example, if you look at the forecasts from NOAA (the Hurricane Prediction Center and other government forecasters), they called for greater than 75% chances of above-normal seasons in 2006, 2007, and 2008. They called for a 50% chance of a normal season (with 25% above-normal and 25% below normal) in 2009.

The only year they missed in this was 2006, because they did not expect El Nino to set up in the Pacific when they made their May predictions, and it ended up appearing. 2006 was a normal to below-normal year as a result. The 2009 prediction was only for normal season because the El Nino was expected - however it ended up being even stronger than was expected and led to what I believe was a below-normal year.

The El Nino is now gone for the 2010, which is why it is very likely that this year's season will be more active than last year's. Furthermore, the conditions are predicted to favorable for a transition to La Nina in the period between June and August. La Nina seasons are generally ripe for tropical system development, which is another reason I think that we could very well have another above-normal season this year.

[TennTradition]

I will also throw in one more point, which pertains to Katrina. Katrina was actually a monster storm, which luckily saw a very large drop in wind speeds just before landfall (going from a Category 5 to a strong Category 3). However, hurricane intensity is usually cataloged by tracking pressure (which usually correlates well with wind speed, but when you see rapid degrading or intensification one can sometimes get ahead of the other). Therefore, if you look at lists of the most intense US hurricanes, Katrina is actually the 3rd most intense (at 920 mbar pressure). The reason the pressure is used is because this most closely correlates to the storm surge - which can often be the most dangerous aspect of the storm. Hurricane Katrina actually had the highest-recorded storm surge in US history at over 25 feet in Mississippi (of course, local geography also played a role in this). Based on its internal pressure, I would have to call Katrina one of our most intense storms in recorded history.

[lylsmorr]

TennTradition I'm going to guess that you are a professor or a graduate from the Ivy League. Especially seeing how you live in Boston

[XtennesseeX]

Originally Posted by TennTradition

Any tropical system will likely carry oil toward the shore - and if the system dose have a surge, then that means even larger areas being affected.

That's the biggest concern. Hard to imagine the damage it would potentially cause, if a cat 3 or greater were to make landfall on the gulf coast.

Originally Posted by TennTradition

The only year they missed in this was 2006, because they did not expect El Nino to set up in the Pacific when they made their May predictions, and it ended up appearing. 2006 was a normal to below-normal year as a result. The 2009 prediction was only for normal season because the El Nino was expected - however it ended up being even stronger than was expected and led to what I believe was a below-normal year.

The El Nino is now gone for the 2010, which is why it is very likely that this year's season will be more active than last year's. Furthermore, the conditions are predicted to favorable for a transition to La Nina in the period between June and August. La Nina seasons are generally ripe for tropical system development, which is another reason I think that we could very well have another above-normal season this year.

Our local (hurricane loving) meteorologists can't state the importance of El Nino enough, for it being the reason their predictions were wrong. However, it is true, and it's not here this year - which is why this season is more anticipated.

Originally Posted by TennTradition

I will also throw in one more point, which pertains to Katrina. Katrina was actually a monster storm, which luckily saw a very large drop in wind speeds just before landfall (going from a Category 5 to a strong Category 3). However, hurricane intensity is usually cataloged by tracking pressure (which usually correlates well with wind speed, but when you see rapid degrading or intensification one can sometimes get ahead of the other). Therefore, if you look at lists of the most intense US hurricanes, Katrina is actually the 3rd most intense (at 920 mbar pressure). The reason the pressure is used is because this most closely correlates to the storm surge - which can often be the most dangerous aspect of the storm. Hurricane Katrina actually had the highest-recorded storm surge in US history at over 25 feet in Mississippi (of course, local geography also played a role in this). Based on its internal pressure, I would have to call Katrina one of our most intense storms in recorded history.

As strong as Katrina was, both Rita and Wilma were stronger at one point, with Wilma being the strongest on record at it's peak, IIRC. However, Katrina was stronger at landfall.

2005 was a bizarre season.

(I remember Hurricane Wilma specifically, and it wasn't that strong when it came ashore in Florida. Although, it made landfall about 250 mi from us, and we had more damage than expected. We were in the northeast quadrant of the storm too, so that might have played a factor.)

[wounded mullet]

Cat 1 Hurricanes are fun.

[dembewbs]

[wounded mullet]

During Hurricane Francis my roomate and I heard there was a Mexican resteraunt open down the road so we ventured out. Get to the traffic light to turn into the complex and the street sign is laying in the middle of the road.

69th street north was shoved into my car, Margaritas and nachos were enjoyed that afternoon.
Ended up giving that huge sign to my ex's brother. Should have held on to it.

[GASOUTHERNVOL]

We had a keg party when a hurricane, well by the time it got to us was a tropical storm back in 05, it was awesome.
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[TennTradition]

Originally Posted by XtennesseeX

As strong as Katrina was, both Rita and Wilma were stronger at one point, with Wilma being the strongest on record at it's peak, IIRC. However, Katrina was stronger at landfall.

Yeah, the numbers I was citing were for landfall. Hurricane Wilma was at less than 900 mbar at its lowest pressure (lowest recorded for an Atlantic basin storm), which is nuts...though hurricanes at sea can often slide a lot lower than they do at landfall. 2005 was a truly unique and wild year.

[TennTradition]

Originally Posted by lylsmorr

TennTradition I'm going to guess that you are a professor or a graduate from the Ivy League. Especially seeing how you live in Boston

I'm a graduate student (hopefully defending in a few months) here in Boston, but I'm not a product of the Ivy league.

[lylsmorr]

Could have fooled me. You're very knowledgeable about these storm cells