#3 Auburn (11-1) vs #5 Missouri (11-1) in Atlanta
TV: 4:00pm ET on CBS
Opening Line: MU -2
Current Line: AU -1.5
Common Opponents: Arkansas State (Missouri 41-19 win, Auburn 38-9 win), Georgia (Missouri 41-26 win, Auburn 43-38 win), Tennessee (Missouri 31-3 win, Auburn 55-23 win), Ole Miss (Missouri 24-10 win, Auburn 30-22 win), Texas A&M (Missouri 28-21 win, Auburn 45-41 win).
Average Score Vs Common Opponents: Missouri 33-16 average win, Auburn 42-27 average win
One To Watch: Missouris pass rush versus Nick Marshall. Auburn allowed just 15 sacks all season. Thats the third best number in the SEC. But Saturday theyll face the leagues best unit at getting to the quarterback. Mizzou has wrung up 37 sacks on the season (about three per game). Michael Sam has 10.5 sacks by his lonesome while fellow D-linemen Markus Golden, Kony Ealy, and Shane Ray all have 4.5 or more. The black and gold Tigers can flat get after opposing signal-callers. But heres the rub: Auburns quarterback ranks eighth in the SEC in rushing yards this season (922 yards on 140 carries). Gus Malzahns squad doesnt throw the ball much, but when they do, MUs pass rush will have to be controlled. The ends will have to be careful not to get too far upfield. The last thing Mizzou needs to do is create escape routes and running lanes for Marshall on those rare occasions when he is asked to put the ball in the air.
This And That:
1. Speaking of Auburns passing game, the Tigers are nowhere near balanced on offense. On the season they had what amounted to a 2-to-1 rush-to-pass ratio (3,819 yards on the ground versus 2,073 through the air). Ironically, the navy and orange Tigers most balanced performance (213 rushing yards versus 224 passing yards) came in their lone loss to LSU. Missouri, on the other hand, is the SECs most balanced offense. In 2013, Gary Pinkels Tigers have rushed for 2,843 yards and passed for 3,031. Being one-dimensional hasnt hurt Auburn yet, but well still give a slight edge to Mizzou for having two proven means of moving the football.
2. Which team is facing the bigger distraction this week? Pinkel had to come out on Thursday and shoot down rumors that he might leave Missouri for Washington. Meanwhile, Auburns players have been glad-handed and back-patted all week down on the Plains. Chris Davis who won the Iron Bowl for AU with his last-second touchdown return was given an ovation when he entered one of his classes this week. Missouri had the Pinkel thing, but the possible letdown for Auburn would seem to be a bigger factor on the ol psyche. Malzahn will have needed to do a great job of keeping his team focused after they won the state of Alabamas own version of the Super Bowl.
3. Auburn has been on big stages before. Just three years ago this week the Cam Newton-led Tigers were whipping South Carolina for the SEC title and setting up a trip to Glendale, Arizona and a BCS title clash with Oregon. There are still some Tiger players along with support staff, coaches, broadcasters, etc that remember what its like to play in an SEC title game and in a national championship game. This is new stuff for Missouri. Pinkel took two previous teams to the Big 12 Championship Game, but his current squad wasnt part of that show. And everyone involved in Mizzous traveling party will be experiencing the magnitude of an SEC title game for the first time. Auburn knows the Georgia Dome. Missouri does not. If one team has the jitters early on, it figures to be the Tigers from Columbia, not the ones from Auburn.
4. Dont forget about the backup quarterbacks going into this one. As we showed you earlier this week, 11 of the SECs 14 schools have had to change starters due to injury at least once this season. James Franklin missed the better part of four games with a shoulder injury. Marshall missed Auburns game with Western Carolina and then played only briefly against Florida Atlantic as he nursed a pair of different injuries. With Franklin and Marshall both sure to run tomorrow afternoon, both teams are just one hit away from needing to call on their second-stringers. In Mizzous case thats Maty Mauk who started against Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky. Hes a dual-threat QB just like Franklin. Auburn backup Jeremy Johnson is a 6-5 pass-first kind of player. His experience came against those aforementioned creampuffs WCU and FAU. In those two games Johnson attempted 41 passes while rushing just seven times. If both quarterbacks go out on Saturday, Missouri should be able to run their standard offense with Mauk. Auburn would likely dial back on the quarterback runs and pump up the aerial assault.
5. This week, we examined the speed of each SEC offense. Auburn and Missouri rank fourth and fifth, respectively, when it comes to going up-tempo. The three fastest offenses in the league Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia all played both AU and MU this season. So which defense did the best job of surviving those no-huddle attacks? Mizzou gave up 1,211 yards and 57 points to that triumvirate. But Auburn yielded a mind-blowing 1,598 yards and 101 points to A&M, UM and UGA. In terms of defending fast offenses like the two that will be on display tomorrow, the advantage goes to Missouri in a big way. That doesnt mean Auburn wont be able to move the ball at all. Malzahns offense involves more motion than anything Dave Steckels defense has seen this season. Missouris D is physical, but theyll also need to play smart tomorrow.
6. Kick off a big SEC football game and those of us at MrSEC.com start counting turnovers. Our own six-season research project showed that turning the ball over just once in an SEC-versus-SEC matchup drops a teams chances of winning from 72.5% (with zero turnovers) to 61.6% (with one giveaway). Looking at it from another angle, teams that finished an SEC contest plus-two in turnover margin won 80% of the time between 2007 and 2012. So whos done a better job of protecting the ball this season? Missouri. By a country mile. In SEC games, Pinkels squad was plus-11 in turnovers. They were plus-14 overall. Malzahns team, however, was minus-one in league play and just plus-one overall. In another SEC-versus-SEC turnover study we posted this week, we showed you that MU forces a takeaway on defense once every 34.9 snaps. Auburn takes the ball away from a foe once every 53.2 plays. More impressive is the fact that Missouri turned the ball over just six times in eight conference game this season just once every 94.3 snaps. Auburn had 12 turnovers in SEC action (one giveaway every 47.7 snaps). Thats yet another advantage for the East Division champs.
7. In several statistical categories, these squads are almost dead even. Scoring offense: MU 38.8 points per game, AU 38.6 points per game. Total offense in SEC games: AU 461.3 yards per game, MU 459.8 yards per game. Even red zone defense in conference play (allowing touchdowns from inside the 20), Auburn is second best in the conference (51.4% TDs) and Missouri is third best (52.1% TDs). But when it comes to other defensive stats, the advantage clearly goes to Pinkels team. Scoring defense in conference games: MU allowed 18.6 points per game, AU allowed 28.0. Rushing defense in league play: MU allowed just 120.7 yards per game (best in the SEC), while AU gave up 183.7 (9th in the SEC). Total defense in SEC play: MU allowed 378.9 yards per game while AU surrendered 458.1 yards per game.
Missouris Gotta Defend: Auburns special teams units. Davis beat Alabama with a 109-yard return. And that run wasnt even part of AUs regular special teams repertoire. The Tigers have four punt returns of 20+ yards (best in the SEC). They also have eight kickoff returns of 30+ yards. Mizzou cant afford to let AU win the game with a big special teams play.
Auburns Gotta Defend: Missouris tall receivers. Auburns secondary has been scorched on occasion this year. Theyve allowed 44 passes of 20 or more yards, the worst mark in the SEC. Theyre also worst in terms of 30+ yarders allowed (with 24) and 40+ yarders allowed (with 12). Now Ellis Johnsons defense will have to cover LDamian Washington (6-4, 205), Dorial Green-Beckham (6-6, 225) and Marcus Lucas (6-5, 220).
Final Take On Missouri: Looking through the stats, facts and figures we were shocked to find that Mizzous Tigers held so many advantages. On paper, the East Division Tigers look like they should be an easy pick to win. But its hard to imagine a second-year SEC program marching right into Atlanta just an hour-and-a-half from Auburn and knocking off one of the leagues traditional Big Six powers, a program that hoisted a crystal football in January of 2010. Thats no knock on Missouri. Weve said all season that the Tigers are for real and the stats above all seem to pound the point him further. But SEC champs so quickly?
Final Take On Auburn: The Tigers are clearly good. Very good. But are they great
or are they lucky? Dont zip us ugly emails just yet, Auburn fans. All championship teams need some lucky bounces and some good fortune. In the Tigers case, theyve gotten plenty in the last three weeks. First came a tipped Hail Mary against Georgia that turned a fourth-and-forever play into a victory. Last Saturday, the Tigers hung with top-ranked, unbeaten Alabama for 59 minutes and 59 seconds. Then, when the officials decided to put a second back on the clock and Nick Saban decided to attempt a 57-yard field goal, Malzahns team cashed in with a 109-yard return of that missed field goal. So is Auburn a team of destiny or is their luck about to run out?
