Pax-Americana no more

MontereyVol · 11-24-2008, 10:34 PM

The United States near future is going to be greatly challenged by China. By the year 2025 (by most peoples economic predictions) China will overtake the US in manufacturing. What does the mean? China is rapidly expanding and upgrading their military to not compete with the US but to dominate it. A larger industrial base will allow them to complete their plans by doing it much the same way the US did to get into its current position.

The biggest cause of the US's slide from power? Its inability to keep its national secrets. After last weeks scare and forth coming mandates the US is hindering its own ability to do research and keep information flowing. Meanwhile China does not limit its personnel to the same restrictions and attacks the grid relentlessly. China now has the power to shut down the US's internet capability. So why aren't we doing anything about it? Sure we are placing more and more into the development of security into the systems but why aren't we attacking them back?

What can we do about it? Be prepared for America's power to wane over the next two decades, we will slide into second on down to third place in world status by around 2030. And the gnashing of teeth and hand wringing will be because the greatest failure was that we could have stopped it.

droski · 11-24-2008, 11:43 PM

wait i thought the japanese were #1 by 2008, not the US? or is this not 1980.

BigPapaVol · 11-25-2008, 07:35 AM

Oklavol, is that you?

MG1968 · 11-25-2008, 08:46 AM

one thing is for sure, the Employee Free Choice Act must not pass and labor unions need to be further weakened

joevol320 · 11-25-2008, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MG1968

one thing is for sure, the Employee Free Choice Act must not pass and labor unions need to be further weakened

true, if that act passes. you'll see our prices double and triple. you'll see job heading overseas so fast.

MontereyVol · 11-25-2008, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by droski

wait i thought the japanese were #1 by 2008, not the US? or is this not 1980.

Do you honestly think this is the same situation?

droski · 11-25-2008, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MontereyVol

Do you honestly think this is the same situation?

yup. every 10 years or so we get to hear how america is being passed by because of our poor education system or quick growth of a socialist power, etc etc. and every time they are wrong. we are the #1 economy in the world for a reason and that is because america kicks arse. the unique society we have here cannot be replicated. and certainly not in a communist country like china where the govt regurally lies about employment numbers, gdp growth, etc. there are numerous reports that china factories are running at 50% capacity yet they claim their economy is still growing at 9%. riiiigghhhhtttt.

MontereyVol · 11-25-2008, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by droski

yup. every 10 years or so we get to hear how america is being passed by because of our poor education system or quick growth of a socialist power, etc etc. and every time they are wrong. we are the #1 economy in the world for a reason and that is because america kicks arse.

Look around you, America isn't kicking arse by anyone standards. all the elements that made America great are in place in China, national pride, up and coming space program, a Navy that just placed itself on the playing field. The difference now is Japan wanted to economically dominate and China wants to rule its area of the world.

At the very least China is great at copying us. So you would have to say they would be even in all things to us, however add to that a roaming army of cheap labor and five times the population and they gain the advantage.

droski · 11-25-2008, 11:59 AM

this assumption that you and outhers make that china will grow by 9% for the next 50 years is just silly. watch their real gdp growth halve in the next 10 years. mark my word. the communists are just too controling to have a dominant economy.

MontereyVol · 11-25-2008, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by droski

this assumption that you and outhers make that china will grow by 9% for the next 50 years is just silly. watch their real gdp growth halve in the next 10 years. mark my word. the communists are just too controling to have a dominant economy.

I am not making that assumption, we in fact expect it to drop to that of the US's on average. Are you aware of what has been going on over the last couple of weeks in regards to the government computer systems?

This is also not your normal communist country when it comes to economic policies. They know they need to get it built up first to ramp up their military, which is what they are doing.

And they don't control themselves as much as you think they do.

joevol320 · 11-25-2008, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MontereyVol

Look around you, America isn't kicking arse by anyone standards. all the elements that made America great are in place in China, national pride, up and coming space program, a Navy that just placed itself on the playing field. The difference now is Japan wanted to economically dominate and China wants to rule its area of the world.

At the very least China is great at copying us. So you would have to say they would be even in all things to us, however add to that a roaming army of cheap labor and five times the population and they gain the advantage.

exactly china's economy is growing because they are the only capitalistic communist. they don't have to worry about some environmental law to build a new plant. they don't have any red tape they just build plants and our companies go there. our government is running companies out of America due to high taxes and irrational government red tape. 90% of it can be traced back to dem/libs, they would rather have an owl live and see American jobless than actually helping businesses and workers. We are killing ourselves from the inside.

rjd970 · 11-25-2008, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by droski

yup. every 10 years or so we get to hear how america is being passed by because of our poor education system or quick growth of a socialist power, etc etc. and every time they are wrong. we are the #1 economy in the world for a reason and that is because america kicks arse. the unique society we have here cannot be replicated. and certainly not in a communist country like china where the govt regurally lies about employment numbers, gdp growth, etc. there are numerous reports that china factories are running at 50% capacity yet they claim their economy is still growing at 9%. riiiigghhhhtttt.

Japan also didn't have a billion people. Japan 30 years ago and China today are two completely difference scenarios.

I have to be up to speed with this stuff for work, and I would recommend this great article, written by Herbert Meyer, who held high level intelligence positions in the CIA and Reagan administration. He also predicted the year the Soviet Union collapsed. It's all very telling, and seems completely reasonable:

A global intelligence briefing for CEOs

Edit: Especially read the section of shifting demographics, very interesting.

**volinbham** · 11-25-2008, 01:53 PM

We're doomed!

MontereyVol · 11-25-2008, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by volinbham

We're doomed!

Thats not what this is about. No one is predicting the demise of the US only her stature in the world. England, France and China have all been super powers and they slipped into second, third and in some cases out of the running. The one thing we try to gauge is whether we go quietly or a war takes place.

**OrangeEmpire** · 11-25-2008, 02:22 PM

So China overtakes our advantage in the air on the sea?