Its (still) the economy, stupid.

[myrobbins7]

Hey, I pay taxes, why didn't I get a $600 check?

[droski]

Originally Posted by lawgator1

The irony of your comment is that, by the time of the election, 95 % of the electorate will realize that drilling in Anwar and off the Gulf coast, by itself, would drop the price of a gallon of gas by about 20 cents .... 15 years from now.

ridiculous. an increase in future oil supply would clearly drop the oil price today. especially if it is domestic. just think about the balance of payments.


as for the economy. anyone who thinks that the president can have a significant effect on the economy (sans obama-like depression-inducing tax increases) needs to take econ 101.

and the overwhelming majority of americans do not owe more on their house than it is worth.

[OWB]

Originally Posted by myrobbins7

Hey, I pay taxes, why didn't I get a $600 check?

Does FineVol know where you live?

[myrobbins7]

Originally Posted by OWB

Does FineVol know where you live?

LMAO!! Yes...

[volinbham]

Oh boy.

Originally Posted by lawgator1

The irony of your comment is that, by the time of the election, 95 % of the electorate will realize that drilling in Anwar and off the Gulf coast, by itself, would drop the price of a gallon of gas by about 20 cents .... 15 years from now.

This is not a fact, it is one analysis of the situation. Conditions will vary so much between now and then that any such prediction is pure speculation. What not drilling does guarantee is that large domestic sources of oil will not be tapped.

If we want the price to come down short-term, we need to:

1) Deal with a weakening dollar, and right now.

2) Regulate futures commodities in oil trading. (Even saying we are going to do that will kill off some of the steam there).

3) Stabilize the situation between Israel and Iran.

4) Announce bold new objectives for reduction in use of oil as an energy source (again, the announcement alone affects the speculators).

5) Consider a windfalls tax on Big Oil. They'll bitch, but they'll happily pay a few percentage points to look like they are helping out and, again, the perception is the key to the futures traders.

I think BPV covered the others but this one is a doozy. How in the world does this lower gasoline prices?

6) Announce goals for improved refining and transportation, realistic ones for a few years out.

[joevol320]

lawvol. why don't the government just take over the oil industry. i bet that would solve our oil crisis.

lawgator, if the oil companies wrote a check to the government in the total amount of their profits. do you really think our oil prices will go down? will that check suddenly produce more oil? will that check produce more oil next July? or 2 years from now? or six months from now? i doubt it.

[Fine Vol]

Originally Posted by myrobbins7

LMAO!! Yes...

I told you Id pay you back. I gave it to some poor people down the road. They said they are getting a job soon.

[myrobbins7]

Originally Posted by Fine Vol

I told you Id pay you back. I gave it to some poor people down the road. They said they are getting a job soon.

Soon isn't soon enough...I want $700 in return FV. . I just love those words Give and Gave. Give me, give me, give me.

[oklavol]

IMO the majority of incumbents are going to lose in the next election, particularly the Republicans. People are unhappy with the money being spent on the Iraq war when the economy in this country is in recession. They blame the Republicans for the Iraq War. There will be a lot of new faces in Congress IMO.

[lawgator1]

Originally Posted by droski

ridiculous. an increase in future oil supply would clearly drop the oil price today. especially if it is domestic. just think about the balance of payments.


as for the economy. anyone who thinks that the president can have a significant effect on the economy (sans obama-like depression-inducing tax increases) needs to take econ 101.

and the overwhelming majority of americans do not owe more on their house than it is worth.

Talk of opening up more U.S. sites isn't going to change the price of a barrel of oil anytime soon. The production itself would be many years away and the speculators realize that.

And while I agree that policy-making by the president does not affect the economy directly, certainly Obama announcing that he is setting these goals and looking at legislation, along with the fact that he will have a cooperative Congress, I would think has a greater chance of moving the markets than would McCain, with a hostile Congress, saying he thinks that in 15 years we can get a tiny percentage of our national use out of Alaska.

Originally Posted by joevol320

lawvol. why don't the government just take over the oil industry. i bet that would solve our oil crisis.

lawgator, if the oil companies wrote a check to the government in the total amount of their profits. do you really think our oil prices will go down? will that check suddenly produce more oil? will that check produce more oil next July? or 2 years from now? or six months from now? i doubt it.

Its not that their paying the tax directly affects the price of oil. Its the perception that the change from a big oil-friendly administration to one more hostile to those companies is finally going to take action that is important.

I saw an Exxon executive on Larry King the other day. His retort to questions about $40 billion in profit in a single quarter is that their margin of profit, as a percentage, is in line with other industries. While true academically, and while defensible from the perspective of return on investment, in real dollars it doesn;t make sense to every day consumers now making hard choices between lifestyle and transportation.

Big oil is blaming speculators and speculators are blaming China and India. The Saudis are blaming everyone else but themselves.

I am not for nationalizing the oil industry, not the refineries, not anything. But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.

[joevol320]

Its not that their paying the tax directly affects the price of oil. Its the perception that the change from a big oil-friendly administration to one more hostile to those companies is finally going to take action that is important.

I saw an Exxon executive on Larry King the other day. His retort to questions about $40 billion in profit in a single quarter is that their margin of profit, as a percentage, is in line with other industries. While true academically, and while defensible from the perspective of return on investment, in real dollars it doesn;t make sense to every day consumers now making hard choices between lifestyle and transportation.

Big oil is blaming speculators and speculators are blaming China and India. The Saudis are blaming everyone else but themselves.

I am not for nationalizing the oil industry, not the refineries, not anything. But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.



i know what your saying. most people don't understand the economics. i think the oil companies should be more aggressive to explain that it's a matter of supply and demand.

remember in the 90's when gas was 80 cents a gallon, the oil companies were barely breaking even and many smaller oil companies went out of business because the supply was so great and they couldn't make any money.

the fact is that we need more oil to get prices cheapers but there is no indication it's going to happen, i'd say by football season gas will almost 4.50-5.00.

i wonder how much it's going to affect football attendance this year?

[allvol123]

Originally Posted by lawgator1

But, on the whole, these companies have to realize that just because others take, say, a 10 percent profit, does not mean in the eys of the Average Joe that its okay for them to take a 10 percent profit when the scale of the economical model we are talking about is just so enormous.

One can argue theory all day long about whether that is justified. I'm saying that as a political issue, as a public relations issue, people cannot understand the total raw dollar amount being justified.

I don't care for these people.

[droski]

Originally Posted by lawgator1

Talk of opening up more U.S. sites isn't going to change the price of a barrel of oil anytime soon. The production itself would be many years away and the speculators realize that.

of course it would. what happens when people know the price of their goods will drop in the future? they sell more now. what do you think that would do to the price today? anyone that argues a massive domestic supply of crude 5-10 years from now wouldn't affect the price today just doesn't understand market dynamics.

[Plano Vol]

I hope there is a reserve 3X the size of Saudi just east of Memphis but everything I've read says that even with drilling and tar sanding all over the U.S., the impact would be less than $.25 reduction.

I think we need to revert to an agrarian society, eat lots of watermelons and chase those farmer's daughters! We would be too happily preoccupied to burn fossil fuel.

[OrangeEmpire]

Originally Posted by Plano Vol

I hope there is a reserve 3X the size of Saudi just east of Memphis but everything I've read says that even with drilling and tar sanding all over the U.S., the impact would be less than $.25 reduction.

I think we need to revert to an agrarian society, eat lots of watermelons and chase those farmer's daughters! We would be too happily preoccupied to burn fossil fuel.

Watermelon is nature's viagra!