2018 Midterm Election Thread

#1
Grand Vol

Grand Vol

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#1
We're getting a lot of solo threads popping up, so figured it'd be nice to have a single thread for all things 2018 election focused.
 
#2
#2
Figure I'll start.

Doug Schoen: The Democrats are at war -- with each other. And it could spell disaster in November | Fox News

Eight states – Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota – will hold primaries Tuesday to pick candidates to run in the midterm general elections Nov. 6. But before turning our attention to those races, it’s useful to look back at primary results in May and see how they reveal a Democratic party in a deep state of division.

Voters in Democratic primaries are split between staunchly progressive and more moderate factions. In the struggle for leadership of the party, supporters of each faction are potentially fatally weakening the Democrats for November contests, and potentially for the 2020 elections as well. That could pave the way for President Trump to be re-elected.

There has been a dramatic change in the generic polling for Congress. Republicans now lead Democrats by 1 point, according to Reuters. Moreover, there has been a dramatic improvement in President Trump’s approval rating, with the Real Clear Average now up to 44 percent.

The reason why this is happening is because Democrats lack an agenda. The party, deeply split between its progressive and moderate wings, is divided on both message and tactics. This puts the party at risk not only at the ballot box, but in Republican-controlled state legislatures and governor’s offices throughout the country, with redistricting occurring after the 2020 census.
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#8
#8
T-TownVol said:
The DNC has not put out new talking points yet......
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They do have a talking point... Anything but Trump.

CBS/YouGov Poll: 2018 Midterms a 'Toss Up' for House Control | Newsmax.com

There are about 50-60 swing districts that are going to determine control, according to Salvanto's analysis.

Other findings of the first Battleground Tracker:

51 percent are casting ballots for Democrats "mostly" because of the party's policies.
49 percent said they are backing a Democrat as a rejection of President Trump and the GOP.
73 percent are casting ballots for Republicans “mostly" because of the party's policies.
27 percent said back a GOP candidate "mostly" to reject Democrats.
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Nothing says "I don't have a party message" more than voting against the other guy because he's the other guy.
 
#10
#10
I figured Darkman already started this thread.

Speaking of, where he be.
 
#13
#13
T-TownVol said:
OK....I re-phrase......no issue based talking points yet......
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Sure there is.

"The GOP tax cuts aren't good for you. They're crumbs. And while we don't have a plan except tax the rich more, we just know they aren't good for you."
 
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#16
#16
Grand Vol said:
We started the 2016 election threads a year out, maybe longer.

Or are you waiting on the Mueller report before making any predictions?
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That's totally different because it's a two-person race and we knew who one of the candidates would be a year out. It got so much attention that people are fairly well settled in how they're going to vote early on.

And, yes, I do think the status of the investigation is going to be an important factor. If the report comes out highly critical of trump to the point that the GOP has to make decisions on what to do with him, that could drive the result in some races. Likewise, if a report comes out and basically exonerates Trump, then that will make running for house or Senate on the Republican side a lot easier because it removes that issue from the equation.
 
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#18
#18
"Over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Just throwing that out there. Enjoy what's coming.
 
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#19
#19
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#20
#20
TennTom said:
"Over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Just throwing that out there. Enjoy what's coming.
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I tend to think 2016 blew a lot of election models out of the water.

Not saying history will or won't repeat itself, but elections have become some pretty tricky propositions in predicting certain races.
 
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#21
#21
TennTom said:
"Over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Just throwing that out there. Enjoy what's coming.
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My prediction: Republicans will pick up Senate seats, and won't lose the House.
 
#22
#22
1972 Grad said:
My prediction: Republicans will pick up Senate seats, and won't lose the House.
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Agree about the House. Also agree about the Senate. Only because Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall.
 
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#23
#23
TennTom said:
"Over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Just throwing that out there. Enjoy what's coming.
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This is all true but we are now in completely uncharted waters. There is no telling what's going to happen in Nov.

My prediction is the Dems will overplay the anti-Trump card with nothing of substance to convince the voters why they should vote for them.
 
#24
#24
TennTom said:
"Over the past 21 midterm elections, the President's party has lost an average 30 seats in the House, and an average 4 seats in the Senate; moreover, in only two of those has the President's party gained seats in both houses."

Just throwing that out there. Enjoy what's coming.
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Taxes down, Americans going back to work, Global terrorism in decline.

Yeah. I'm thinking I will enjoy the mid terms.
 
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