The Third Yugoslav War Approaches

#1

volprof

Destroyer of Nihilists
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#1
No Serb tanks about to roll into Bosnia or Croat and Bosniak fighter jets about to do CAP over Sarajevo. No NATO security councils or UN emergency meetings, but those will come in time, unless well-calculated steps to avoiding the conflict are taken.

Republika Srpska, an autonomous region of ethnic Serbs in Bosnia, voted to keep an outlawed national holiday - the day celebrating its "independence" from Bosnia, thus sparking the 92-95 war - this afternoon. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor of the holiday, thus practically guaranteeing that the 2018 secessionist vote will come to term.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bosnian-serbs-vote-referendum-banned-top-court-083450971.html

Putin was in Srpska this weekend to meet with its president. I'm sure he was there encouraging the president not to allow the referendum to pass and not to pursue its secession referendum, I say in my best keyboard sarcasm.

The one wildcard this time around will be the fact that some of these folks are now NATO members, unlike in the past. Croatia and Slovenia are members, with Montenegro potentially joining in 2017. The accession of Bosnia to NATO has been in the negotiations process since 2010.

The next decade is going to strain any American president. He or She will have to proceed wisely. The margin for error previous presidents enjoyed will be highly diminished.
 
#2
#2
No Serb tanks about to roll into Bosnia or Croat and Bosniak fighter jets about to do CAP over Sarajevo. No NATO security councils or UN emergency meetings, but those will come in time, unless well-calculated steps to avoiding the conflict are taken.

Republika Srpska, an autonomous region of ethnic Serbs in Bosnia, voted to keep an outlawed national holiday - the day celebrating its "independence" from Bosnia, thus sparking the 92-95 war - this afternoon. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor of the holiday, thus practically guaranteeing that the 2018 secessionist vote will come to term.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bosnian-serbs-vote-referendum-banned-top-court-083450971.html

Putin was in Srpska this weekend to meet with its president. I'm sure he was there encouraging the president not to allow the referendum to pass and not to pursue its secession referendum, I say in my best keyboard sarcasm.

The one wildcard this time around will be the fact that some of these folks are now NATO members, unlike in the past. Croatia and Slovenia are members, with Montenegro potentially joining in 2017. The accession of Bosnia to NATO has been in the negotiations process since 2010.

The next decade is going to strain any American president. He or She will have to proceed wisely. The margin for error previous presidents enjoyed will be highly diminished.

Well it was approved in defiance Bosnian Constitutional Court ruling against it. It is going to be interesting to see how High Representative Valentin Inzko reacts to this. He has the power to remove politicians within Bosnia. Fears are rising that Dodik may move forward with a secession referendum in the future.

I'm not sure we are at war levels yet but if the Bosnian Serbs push forward with a secession vote in the near future it will. I do find it interesting that Russia is supporting the Serbs in this and that Belgrade isn't as keen on it. That said I don't see the Bosnian Serbs lasting long if the declare independence without some support from Serbia.
 
#3
#3
Well it was approved in defiance Bosnian Constitutional Court ruling against it. It is going to be interesting to see how High Representative Valentin Inzko reacts to this. He has the power to remove politicians within Bosnia. Fears are rising that Dodik may move forward with a secession referendum in the future.

I'm not sure we are at war levels yet but if the Bosnian Serbs push forward with a secession vote in the near future it will. I do find it interesting that Russia is supporting the Serbs in this and that Belgrade isn't as keen on it. That said I don't see the Bosnian Serbs lasting long if the declare independence without some support from Serbia.

Serbia isn't as keen on it as Putin, because, unlike Putin and Russia, it is actually there and will have to suffer dearly as a result. But, you are correct. The pull of honor and brotherhood will ultimately force them to support their Bosnian Serb counterparts in a war.

The thing about this prospect, of a third war in the Balkans, is that this time around it has the potential to be something far worse. Unlike in the 90s, Russia is now "large and in charge" again. It will not largely cower at the Americans and NATO like it did then. Plus, the pull of religion will be evens stronger here. Holy Russia will support its Orthodox Brothers unconditionally. Likewise, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Iran will not tolerate dead Bosnian, Kosovar, and Albanian Muslims. Those nations will fuel the conflict even further, seeing it as yet another opportunity for the Jihad and to destabilize the West. And to make matters worse, Catholic Croatia is now a member of NATO, possibly pulling us into that conflict whether we like it or not.

This feels different than the last time around. This has Gavrilo Princip - the most famous Yugoslav nationalist in history - potential written all over it. The world's regions have become increasingly unstable the past decade, and the old security order is currently under attack.

Who or what will be the Gavrilo Princip of the 21st Century? The route things are currently going, the world seems intent on finding out.
 
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#4
#4
I admit that the one catch here is that of Putin. If he truly wants the secession to take place, damn the torpedoes - to quote a dead American - and a war to almost certainly follow as a result, then it will happen. If he just wants to get everybody all hot and bothered and bring the region to the brink only to come in at the last moment, like a knight in shining armor, to "negotiate" a settlement so as to make him and Russia look sterling, then that is another matter all together.

This all rests upon him though, either way.

The thing about Putin is that he is a superb tactician. A very smart man, very sharp tactically. But the things he does, if you look at them as a smart observer, you see the potential for long-term disaster. As a strategist, he may ultimately prove an abject failure.

My fear is that he is a man who doesn't quite grasp the fact that fires, even those started by one, sometimes get out of hand.
 
#5
#5
A massive war will come. Whether it starts there or in Asia, it's coming. All the pieces are falling into place.
 
#8
#8
The creation of the Federation and the RS is one part of the Dayton Accords that just didn't make sense.
 
#9
#9
@Eire_QC 52m52 minutes ago

#Breaking: Prosecutor's office of #Bosnia has summoned Republika Srpska's President, Milorad Dodik for questionning over the referendum.

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#10
#10
A massive war will come. Whether it starts there or in Asia, it's coming. All the pieces are falling into place.

"60 Minutes" completed a magnificent two part series on the US, Russia, and nuclear weapons policy last night. The basic implication of the installment was that a major war between major powers may now be "thinkable" again due to Russia's new nuclear weapons first use policy. Its "nuclear de-escalation" approach, as stated in its official nuclear weapons strategy text, may make a great power war possible again since it basically throws decades of MAD under the bus with a new concept of "deterrence."

The sense that some high-ranking American military men got from this is that the Russians now see us as a nation basically as the Japanese did before Pearl Harbor: a nation of pleasure-loving decadents, with no stomach for a sustained war, especially not one where the other side is willing to pull the nuclear weapons card, perhaps by a preemptive tactical nuclear strike on a NATO military base or troop deployment.

If this third war in the Balkans comes to fruition, the Russians will not largely sit back and watch like they did the first two. The Kremlin still holds a grudge against us for Kosovo. And I most certainly think Putin will be willing to let scores of Balkan citizens die if it means bringing down NATO and/or the EU.
 
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Flash' '-' 'Bosnia' 'is' ''''a' 'failed' 'concept'''':'' 'Serb' 'leader' '-' 'France' '24

So Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has called Bosnia a failed concept and thinks "a lot" about the independence for Bosnia's Serb republic. It seems Putin is close to destabilizing another region of Europe with his puppets. I give this another 18 months before they declare independence.

In fairness to him, it really is a stupid concept. Both sides made peace because they were tired of war, not because the outcome suited them much. The pot's been simmering ever since.
 
#14
#14
In fairness to him, it really is a stupid concept. Both sides made peace because they were tired of war, not because the outcome suited them much. The pot's been simmering ever since.

Perhaps, but there's no reason to stir that pot again. Putin is doing this for a political purpose, which has nothing to do with the "self-determination of sovereign peoples" hackneyed Kremlin line. There's absolutely no good reason to be doing this unless he either wants a war or wants to bring the region to the brink so as to either weaken Western resolve yet again or to look like some sort of peace-broker when he negotiates a settlement. The problem is that not even a man like Putin can control everything he ever starts.
 
#15
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Flash' '-' 'Bosnia' 'is' ''''a' 'failed' 'concept'''':'' 'Serb' 'leader' '-' 'France' '24

So Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has called Bosnia a failed concept and thinks "a lot" about the independence for Bosnia's Serb republic. It seems Putin is close to destabilizing another region of Europe with his puppets. I give this another 18 months before they declare independence.

Did you hear about the soccer match between Croatia and Kosovo last week, where fans of each side chanted in unison "Kill the Serbs"?

It's happening again. And, unlike last time, the same alliance systems (different names, different actors, but all essentially the same) that existed in 1914 are in place again in the Balkans.
 
#16
#16
I've been content to discuss such things in the Ukraine thread the past couple of weeks, but figured I'd bump this thread, because it's only a matter of time.

We'll see how the newly-minted President Donald J. Trump handles this one.

Serbia wants to annex part of Kosovo using 'Crimea model': president | Reuters

Dark days for the West approach. We better be strong, and, to quote my late, great high school football coach, "You better get your jock strapped on."
 
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#18
#18
The Specter Of Nationalism And Redrawn Borders

Nocookies | The Australian



John Schindler also has some tweets on the renewed tensions.

I haven't been this scared for the future of the West and American national security than at any other point in my adult life. Ian Bremmer said last week on Zakaria GPS that at no point since the end of the Cold War did he think another major conflict or world war possible, that is, until now. I agree with him. I think great power conflict is now thinkable again, especially with Russia's current stated nuclear weapons policy, which no longer maintains mutually assured destruction as the primary deterrent factor.

Since trains are now evidently of question in this brewing conflict, I'll use an appropriate analogy: it's nearing the point of becoming a runaway train that cannot be stopped now.

Honestly, at this point, the only thing I see that could possibly halt the tensions into turning into open conflict, is Putin refusing security guarantees to Serbia and/or Republika Sprska and/or Kosovo Serbs. That, however, is not apt to occur, as Putin is the key instigator in all of this and seems content with another Yugoslav war, most likely to put another nail in NATO's coffin.
 
#19
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I haven't been this scared for the future of the West and American national security than at any other point in my adult life. Ian Bremmer said last week on Zakaria GPS that at no point since the end of the Cold War did he think another major conflict or world war possible, that is, until now. I agree with him. I think great power conflict is now thinkable again, especially with Russia's current stated nuclear weapons policy, which no longer maintains mutually assured destruction as the primary deterrent factor.

Since trains are now evidently of question in this brewing conflict, I'll use an appropriate analogy: it's nearing the point of becoming a runaway train that cannot be stopped now.

Honestly, at this point, the only thing I see that could possibly halt the tensions into turning into open conflict, is Putin refusing security guarantees to Serbia and/or Republika Sprska and/or Kosovo Serbs. That, however, is not apt to occur, as Putin is the key instigator in all of this and seems content with another Yugoslav war, most likely to put another nail in NATO's coffin.

I'm not nearly as nervous as you are about another great war, that will never happen so long as MAD exists. I do think Europe could see another land war in the near future in this region if things keep sliding in this direction. I voted for Trump even though I oppose his views on Russia and NATO. He isn't going to magically kill an alliance that has existed since the Cold War.
 
#20
#20
I'm not nearly as nervous as you are about another great war, that will never happen so long as MAD exists. I do think Europe could see another land war in the near future in this region if things keep sliding in this direction. I voted for Trump even though I oppose his views on Russia and NATO. He isn't going to magically kill an alliance that has existed since the Cold War.

According to Russia's present nuclear weapons policy (established in 2014), MAD as a deterrent to major war is effectively dead. We can debate whether or not Russia truly means it, but that's what the Kremlin says, at least, and I believe them.

Welcome to the new post-American world!
 
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https://medium.com/@pmakela1/new-troubles-in-the-balkans-27bec3a3aec1#.cmt0kt61f

Also Milorad Dodik is calling for the American ambassador to Bosnia be blacklisted since the Obama administration sanctioned him.

Up until this past weekend, the one thing that had placated me a bit on this was Serbia's apparent reluctance to join Russia's campaign for another Balkan war.

That's now gone, however. Serbia seems on board now too. I think it has something to do with Russian aid to the region and Russia's military gifts (including 6 Migs, I think it was) to the Serbs recently. As long as that continues, Serb leadership - at least - will be on board with whatever Putin wants in the region.
 
#23
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The issue in the Balkans (in regards to Serbia) had always been about Serbia Nationalism. Much like Russia has done with reclaiming territory under the guise of protecting Russian minorities, the true motivation is the reclamation of lands historically associated with each group (Russia and Serbia) in their former primes. Serbia wants , and has for sometime, a restablishment of a greater Serbia which includes a large portion of several other Balkan countries. As an ethnic group, (being south Slav) Serbia sees more in common with Russia than it does any other European country. Due to weak leadership throughout Europe and weak American foreign policy, it is reasonable to conclude that there will be a revival in contentious relations between Balkan countries.

Is this good analysis for you VolProf?
 
#24
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The issue in the Balkans (in regards to Serbia) had always been about Serbia Nationalism. Much like Russia has done with reclaiming territory under the guise of protecting Russian minorities, the true motivation is the reclamation of lands historically associated with each group (Russia and Serbia) in their former primes. Serbia wants , and has for sometime, a restablishment of a greater Serbia which includes a large portion of several other Balkan countries. As an ethnic group, (being south Slav) Serbia sees more in common with Russia than it does any other European country. Due to weak leadership throughout Europe and weak American foreign policy, it is reasonable to conclude that there will be a revival in contentious relations between Balkan countries.

Is this good analysis for you VolProf?

It's a start.

Serbia's close historic ties with Russia, however, are not really about Slavic unity. Russia as the defender of all the Slavs, going back to the days of the tsars, is just a myth. What really counts is Orthodoxy.

The Serbs are Orthodox Slavs, and, as far as the Russians are concerned, the Catholic Croats and the Islamic Bosniaks - all Slavs - can go to hell.
 

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