Nuclear war and preconceptions.

#1
McDad

McDad

I can't brain today; I has the dumb.
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#1
I recently read an article authored by the only blogger i follow. He's Libertarian, a West Pointer, and a Harvard Business school grad. He writes in a very reasoned way using critical thinking and logic as his guide.

He wrote a piece on nuclear blasts and the actual damage (evidenced by the bombs on Japan and decades of testing) versus the preconceived damage most of us imagine (based on movies, famous people, scientists and other pop culture).

i thought it was very interesting so i am bringing some info here to gauge the perceptions of our group.

No fair looking up answers!!!!!!!!

1. What percentage of the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are attributed to the death count of the detonations; including those people after who died after the explosions?

2. What is increase in radius of destruction when comparing a 20 kiloton and a 1megaton (which has 50 times more explosive power) nuclear blast?

3. How many people survived the Hiroshima blast within 800 meters of ground zero (16 KT bomb)?

4. How many people died from Chernobyl's fallout (hint: getting cancer is not equal to death rate)?

5. What's the percentage of 11.5 million shipping containers in the last fiscal year that Customs and Border Protection officials scanned with X-ray or gamma-ray machines?

I will do a follow up tonight. No cheating. :)
 
#4
#4
McDad said:
I recently read an article authored by the only blogger i follow. He's Libertarian, a West Pointer, and a Harvard Business school grad. He writes in a very reasoned way using critical thinking and logic as his guide.

He wrote a piece on nuclear blasts and the actual damage (evidenced by the bombs on Japan and decades of testing) versus the preconceived damage most of us imagine (based on movies, famous people, scientists and other pop culture).

i thought it was very interesting so i am bringing some info here to gauge the perceptions of our group.

No fair looking up answers!!!!!!!!

1. What percentage of the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are attributed to the death count of the detonations; including those people after who died after the explosions?

2. What is increase in radius of destruction when comparing a 20 kiloton and a 1megaton (which has 50 times more explosive power) nuclear blast?

3. How many people survived the Hiroshima blast within 800 meters of ground zero (16 KT bomb)?

4. How many people died from Chernobyl's fallout (hint: getting cancer is not equal to death rate)?

5. What's the percentage of 11.5 million shipping containers in the last fiscal year that Customs and Border Protection officials scanned with X-ray or gamma-ray machines?

I will do a follow up tonight. No cheating. :)
Click to expand...

1. a lot
2. a lot
3. not a lot
4. a handful..if I had a mutated Chernobyl hand.
5. not a lot
 
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#6
#6
McDad said:
I recently read an article authored by the only blogger i follow. He's Libertarian, a West Pointer, and a Harvard Business school grad. He writes in a very reasoned way using critical thinking and logic as his guide.

He wrote a piece on nuclear blasts and the actual damage (evidenced by the bombs on Japan and decades of testing) versus the preconceived damage most of us imagine (based on movies, famous people, scientists and other pop culture).

i thought it was very interesting so i am bringing some info here to gauge the perceptions of our group.

No fair looking up answers!!!!!!!!

1. What percentage of the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are attributed to the death count of the detonations; including those people after who died after the explosions?

2. What is increase in radius of destruction when comparing a 20 kiloton and a 1megaton (which has 50 times more explosive power) nuclear blast?

3. How many people survived the Hiroshima blast within 800 meters of ground zero (16 KT bomb)?

4. How many people died from Chernobyl's fallout (hint: getting cancer is not equal to death rate)?

5. What's the percentage of 11.5 million shipping containers in the last fiscal year that Customs and Border Protection officials scanned with X-ray or gamma-ray machines?

I will do a follow up tonight. No cheating. :)
Click to expand...

1. detonations killing % of the whole population 30%
2. I want to say 'only' double, although i have a theory on this
3.i want to say 800m is in the 'third ring' so 40-50% survived the blast.
4. none
5. 80% no idea here.
 
#8
#8
McDad said:
I recently read an article authored by the only blogger i follow. He's Libertarian, a West Pointer, and a Harvard Business school grad. He writes in a very reasoned way using critical thinking and logic as his guide.

He wrote a piece on nuclear blasts and the actual damage (evidenced by the bombs on Japan and decades of testing) versus the preconceived damage most of us imagine (based on movies, famous people, scientists and other pop culture).

i thought it was very interesting so i am bringing some info here to gauge the perceptions of our group.

No fair looking up answers!!!!!!!!

1. What percentage of the population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are attributed to the death count of the detonations; including those people after who died after the explosions?

2. What is increase in radius of destruction when comparing a 20 kiloton and a 1megaton (which has 50 times more explosive power) nuclear blast?

3. How many people survived the Hiroshima blast within 800 meters of ground zero (16 KT bomb)?

4. How many people died from Chernobyl's fallout (hint: getting cancer is not equal to death rate)?

5. What's the percentage of 11.5 million shipping containers in the last fiscal year that Customs and Border Protection officials scanned with X-ray or gamma-ray machines?

I will do a follow up tonight. No cheating. :)
Click to expand...

1. 35%
2. 10 times the radius
3. 500
4. 50
5. 80%

Fusion and fission baby
 
#9
#9
According to his (author's) number, the answer to question 1 is 20%-30% lethal.

"The total death toll in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from the atomic bombs was 129,000 to 246,000 including those who died after the explosion. The population of Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined before the bombs was 608,000; after, 362,000 to 479,000."

I did not believe these numbers. When I imagine the destructive force of a nuclear blast, images of bikini atoll, "The Day After", and scenes from "Terminator 2" flood my mind. That imagery is of total destruction in the blast radius. I am surprised 70-80% of the populous survived.
 
#12
#12
Number 2:

"The radius of destruction is not arithmetically proportional to the size of the explosion. For example, a 100 KT bomb does*not*have five times the destruction radius of a 20KT bomb. According to Wikipedia, a 1MT bomb, which has 50 times the explosive power of a 20KT bomb, only has a total destruction radius of 1.5 miles compared to .37 miles for a 20KT bomb."

I assumed more explosive power = larger destruction radius. It is true. I wrongly assumed the destructive radius grew in proportion to the explosive power. The tzar bomb's explosive power is impressive when compared to the Japan bombs.
 
#14
#14
McDad said:
Number 2:

"The radius of destruction is not arithmetically proportional to the size of the explosion. For example, a 100 KT bomb does*not*have five times the destruction radius of a 20KT bomb. According to Wikipedia, a 1MT bomb, which has 50 times the explosive power of a 20KT bomb, only has a total destruction radius of 1.5 miles compared to .37 miles for a 20KT bomb."

I assumed more explosive power = larger destruction radius. It is true. I wrongly assumed the destructive radius grew in proportion to the explosive power. The tzar bomb's explosive power is impressive when compared to the Japan bombs.
Click to expand...

Fusion vs fission
 
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#15
#15
Number 3:

“Father Hubert Schiffer*(1915 - March 27, 1982[1]) was one of eight*German*Jesuits*who survived the nuclear bomb "Little Boy" dropped on*Hiroshima. He was only eight blocks away from*ground zero*when the explosion occurred. The group of Jesuits survived not only the explosion, but also the effects of the radiation (the doctors were amazed they did not present any radiation illness). Skeptics counter that while people inside Nagasaki's*Urakami Cathedral*were afforded no special protection, there were non-Catholic survivors even closer to the center of the blast in Hiroshima. Eiko Taoka and nine other people survived in a streetcar which was 750 meters from ground zero.[2]*One survivor, Akiko Takakura, was in a bank 300 meters away from the blast.[2]*Eizo Nomura survived just 170 meters away from the blast, in the basement of the Hiroshima Prefecture Fuel Rationing Union.”

"In 1976, all eight of those Jesuits were still alive.

Another Internet source says 40 people who were within 800 meters of ground zero survived at Hiroshima."

This tidbit was counter to my notion that nothing survives near the detonation zone. 40 survivers doesn't indicate good odds of surviving the blast but it does happen.
 
#17
#17
Question 4:

"Although 40,000 deaths were predicted from*Chernobyl*fallout, it appears there were 7,000 cases of child thyroid cancer—a disease which more or less does not exist absent fallout. Around*12*people*died*from childhood thyroid cancer in the downwind area in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. There was apparently no other rise in deaths from any cause in that area.*http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/04/chernobyl_death_toll_how_many_cancer_cases_are_caused_by_low_level_radiation.html"


Question 5:

"Customs and Border Protection officials scanned with X-ray or gamma-ray machines 473,380, or 4.1 percent, of the 11.5 million containers shipped in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, according to the agency. That’s essentially the same percentage of containers that were scanned in 2007, the year a Democratic-controlled Congress mandated that agents start vetting every container."
 
#18
#18
McDad said:
Number 3:

“Father Hubert Schiffer*(1915 - March 27, 1982[1]) was one of eight*German*Jesuits*who survived the nuclear bomb "Little Boy" dropped on*Hiroshima. He was only eight blocks away from*ground zero*when the explosion occurred. The group of Jesuits survived not only the explosion, but also the effects of the radiation (the doctors were amazed they did not present any radiation illness). Skeptics counter that while people inside Nagasaki's*Urakami Cathedral*were afforded no special protection, there were non-Catholic survivors even closer to the center of the blast in Hiroshima. Eiko Taoka and nine other people survived in a streetcar which was 750 meters from ground zero.[2]*One survivor, Akiko Takakura, was in a bank 300 meters away from the blast.[2]*Eizo Nomura survived just 170 meters away from the blast, in the basement of the Hiroshima Prefecture Fuel Rationing Union.”

"In 1976, all eight of those Jesuits were still alive.

Another Internet source says 40 people who were within 800 meters of ground zero survived at Hiroshima."

This tidbit was counter to my notion that nothing survives near the detonation zone. 40 survivers doesn't indicate good odds of surviving the blast but it does happen.
Click to expand...


Lead paint?
 
#20
#20
airburst nuclear blasts (both of the WWII were airbursts) don't have nearly the fallout that ones on the ground have(less stuff to mess up). but the airburst distributes more force than a ground burst which is limited by the ground topography.
 
#24
#24
Velo Vol said:
My preconception is that nuclear war would be bad. Am I wrong?
Click to expand...

I believe the catastrophic numbers support that notion pertaining to nuclear war. I thought the Nuclear reactor meltdown numbers were pretty interesting though. The politicians feed us all sorts of horrible imagery in order to scare us away from nuclear power, but the risks are very small compared to the rewards of a nuclear powered country.
 
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