Well, here you have it. No need to worry

#5
#5
I hate to be a Negative Nancy, but my quick item by item analysis is below.

The consumer is not back. I think we're closer than we have been in a while, but my biggest concern is the shrinking disposable income. Consumer spending is a must to sustainably grow an economy.

First disposable income, then housing, then the market robounds. And I just don't think we're there.

1 - 2: The job market has not shown consistent signs of improvement. Trading full time work for part time work might help the statistics, but it's not what I consider improvement. To keep it on the bright side, I do believe that the last quarter has shown some hope for full time employment to pick up in the near future.

However, most businesses are playing it safe in an uncertain regulatory environment. For many industries that rely on consumer spending, the rest of this year is largely an unknown.

The competition for consumer dollars is fierce.

3: Unfavorable weather is largely an excuse that has been used by many businesses to excuse soft earnings. Sure, it affects seasonal businesses to a degree, but cold weather is a driver for as many businesses as it is a deterrent for others. Ignore this.

4: Consumer spending is not back. It's been driven largely by discounting. Consumers are looking for value and you can see that in where they are choosing to spend their dollars. It's becoming increasingly hard to get consumers to part with their dinero. Even at the high end where spending used to be robust, it's not longer there. Discounters such as Walmart and Target are struggling to keep comps flat. Mid tier players like JCP and Kohl's are getting hammered. Nordstrom is flat in their bricks and mortar. And Macy's is even going hi-lo. Not what you see if consumer spending is back.

5: OK. Business spending is decent. It's not robust. Businesses have been hoarding cash, and they are choosing to invest that in places where they get the best return on investment. Unfortunately, it's not been hiring new people. They are spending on necessary upgrades on infrastructure and trying to best position themselves for a rebound. A lot of that spending has been in technology. You know what that means.

6: Housing is decent. Foreclosures down. Prices are rising. I think this is a reflection of people who can buy for themselves or for investment purposes are doing so. Housing is a great place to put your money when you think inflation is near. Interest rates are low. Lock it in now. It's also been a pretty good time to find a deal in the past few years. I hope this will continue, but when interest rates rise, I'm curious to see what happens to this market.

7: Earnings are good. Businesses have learned to do more with less. What's telling is that these businesses have used a lot of their earning to buy back stock versus invest in their businesses. On lower margins, you can increase future EPS by buying back stock with your pile of cash. It makes your business look much better than it is actually performing.

EDIT: The elephant in the room is what happens to the market once the Fed pulls the amphetamines from the equities market. That will likely be a catalyst for a 10-20% correction.
 
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#6
#6
EDIT: The elephant in the room is what happens to the market once the Fed pulls the amphetamines from the equities market. That will likely be a catalyst for a 10-20% correction.

10-20% is on the optimistic side of things.
 
#7
#7
The Fed has already reduced its QE from $85 billion a month to $55 billion. They aren't doing it all at once. There have been several cuts so far.

Oh, and each time the market loses a bit right away, then rebounds to new highs when the sky does not fall, as promised.
 
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#8
#8
The Fed has already reduced its QE from $85 billion a month to $55 billion. They aren't doing it all at once. There have been several cuts so far.

Oh, and each time the market loses a bit right away, then rebounds to new highs when the sky does not fall, as promised.

Market will collapse now.
 
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#9
#9
The Fed has already reduced its QE from $85 billion a month to $55 billion. They aren't doing it all at once. There have been several cuts so far.

Oh, and each time the market loses a bit right away, then rebounds to new highs when the sky does not fall, as promised.

You're an economic genius ...
 
#11
#11
The Fed has already reduced its QE from $85 billion a month to $55 billion. They aren't doing it all at once. There have been several cuts so far.

Oh, and each time the market loses a bit right away, then rebounds to new highs when the sky does not fall, as promised.

Don't know why people think it can't happen again. They are deluding themselves.
 
#14
#14
The Fed has already reduced its QE from $85 billion a month to $55 billion. They aren't doing it all at once. There have been several cuts so far.

Oh, and each time the market loses a bit right away, then rebounds to new highs when the sky does not fall, as promised.

QE for the month of August has now gone from 15b to 10b for mortgage backed and 20b to 15b for Treasuries. Total QE is now $25b per month. Not only is QE going lower but the Fed speak is signaling an actual increase in lending rates early in 2015. Constriction.
 
#15
#15
QE for the month of August has now gone from 15b to 10b for mortgage backed and 20b to 15b for Treasuries. Total QE is now $25b per month. Not only is QE going lower but the Fed speak is signaling an actual increase in lending rates early in 2015. Constriction.

What does this mean? ( for us stock market challenged folks)

Is this a desirable trend to slowly let the market correct with out the bottom falling out?
 
#16
#16
Market will collapse now.

You're an economic genius ...

Don't know why people think it can't happen again. They are deluding themselves.

QE for the month of August has now gone from 15b to 10b for mortgage backed and 20b to 15b for Treasuries. Total QE is now $25b per month. Not only is QE going lower but the Fed speak is signaling an actual increase in lending rates early in 2015. Constriction.


Eventually the market will go down and you will claim you are right and that QE was obviously the cause. Then it will go up, and I'll claim I was right and that once the market saw that the absence of QE did not change the fundamentals, it was bound to rebound.

What I can see in the rear view mirror is that with all of the QE and then the tapering, and the certainty of rates rising next year, the market is still up almost 6 percent over the prior year, and 78 % over the past five years.
 
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#17
#17
The Fed has already reduced its QE from $85 billion a month to $55 billion. They aren't doing it all at once. There have been several cuts so far.

Oh, and each time the market loses a bit right away, then rebounds to new highs when the sky does not fall, as promised.

Hahaha - You might be an attorney, though you're on here too much for me to assume you are a good one. But you have proven to be a complete dolt when it comes to economics. Usually whatever you say the opposite happens.

Therefore, I won't put in too much time explaining simple economics to you. Nobody is promising the sky will fall. They are promising a market correction. Easy money and low interest rates (Fed policy) make the stock market the place to put your funds right now. Once the funds dry up and interest rates start to rise, there will be a mad rush out of the market. Doesn't change business fundamentals, but it will just make for a very rough equity investment environment.
 
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#18
#18
What does this mean? ( for us stock market challenged folks)

Is this a desirable trend to slowly let the market correct with out the bottom falling out?

The fed's views on QE and a rising stock market per Bernanke: "...higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."

So, this means that in general, assets may be over priced from 5 years of QE. Now, as the fed tapers and raises rates, the price of everything will go up from borrowing costs and corporate profitability will decrease. No one really knows how fast and hard asset prices will move (or even if they will move) because this has never been done before. On top of that, the government seems to be operating at cross purposes, sort of bucking heads. The fed is trying to grow the economy (while watching inflation and unemployment) but the Obama admin's policies and rhetoric restrict it in the form of calls for higher taxes, Obamacare, regulations, class warfare and demonizing capitalism. It may not seem like it everyday, but this is a period of high risk and transition.
 
#19
#19
Earnings are made on the backs of continued employee cuts which further exacerbate the erosion of the middle class. Long term, consumer spending will continue to decline. It can't be any other way.

I live in one of the supposedly economic bright spots of the country. The amounts of empty storefronts is staggering. The reduction in crowds at malls and restaurants is also evident.
 
#20
#20
The fed's views on QE and a rising stock market per Bernanke: "...higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion."

So, this means that in general, assets may be over priced from 5 years of QE. Now, as the fed tapers and raises rates, the price of everything will go up from borrowing costs and corporate profitability will decrease. No one really knows how fast and hard asset prices will move (or even if they will move) because this has never been done before. On top of that, the government seems to be operating at cross purposes, sort of bucking heads. The fed is trying to grow the economy (while watching inflation and unemployment) but the Obama admin's policies and rhetoric restrict it in the form of calls for higher taxes, Obamacare, regulations, class warfare and demonizing capitalism. It may not seem like it everyday, but this is a period of high risk and transition.


Thank you.

It seems to me if business profits start to fall then employees will be let go, causing higher unemployment as well.

What a pickle we have here.
 
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#21
#21
Thank you.

It seems to me if business profits start to fall then employees will be let go, causing higher unemployment as well.

What a pickle we have here.

Catch 22. Many companies have increased profitability by cutting employees.

The uncertainty with Obamacare has placed all of us on shaky ground. It will be interesting what happens when 2015 renewals start.
 
#22
#22
Thank you.

It seems to me if business profits start to fall then employees will be let go, causing higher unemployment as well.

What a pickle we have here.


I'm not sure of the numbers, but given the dramatic rise in the value of stock, despite the fall in demand, it sure seems like too many employees is not where the problem currently lies.
 
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#23
#23
I'm not sure of the numbers, but given the dramatic rise in the value of stock, despite the fall in demand, it sure seems like too many employees is not where the problem currently lies.

Please explain.
 
#24
#24
Wealthy getting wealthier and the middle class is still taking a beating. When the middle class starts to grow again, talk to me about how the economy is improving.
 
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