Ron Paul Can't Win

#1
n_huffhines

n_huffhines

What's it gonna cost?
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#1
Somebody besides a libertarian needed to finally f-ing say it:

It's hard to tell if the idea that Ron Paul cannot win in 2012 is more ignorant, in its complete lack of historical sophistication, or more arrogant, in its claim to certainty amid all the complexity of 300 million lives and the myriad issues that affect them.

Sometimes, perhaps once in a few generations, a nation can undergo what a mathematician or physicist would call a "phase change." The classic example of such a thing is a pile of sand. Every grain you add makes the pile slightly steeper and slightly higher without moving any of the other grains inside the pile, until eventually one grain is added that causes an avalanche of sand down the sides of the pile, moving thousand of grains and changing the shape of the pile.

Such behavior can be exhibited by all complex systems, and a nation -- it should be obvious -- is much more complex than a pile of sand.

The important point for those who would presume to make such grand predictions as "Dr. Paul cannot win" is that no examination of the pile of sand before the point of avalanche would tell you that, or when, the avalanche will eventually happen.

But happen it does; indeed, happen it must.

And there are numerous examples of abrupt and dramatic phase change in the politics of great nations.
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Robin Koerner: Ron Paul Can Win
 
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#4
#4
GAVol said:
Still don't think he can win but I'm still listening.
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I don't think he will win, but saying he can't possibly win is short-sighted or just a reflection of wishful thinking. Anybody can win. The article goes on to talk about how incredibly shocking it was that Churchill lost re-election when it was a foregone conclusion that he would be back in office. He was so wildly popular that the labor party's slogan was "Cheer Churchill, vote labor" and somehow he lost. Anything can happen.
 
#6
#6
I admire you refusal to give up on this hopeless dream.

Not only is his view of the world too radical a change from what we all know, the business interests he would wipe out would crush him the instant they thought he had a million to one chance. As he's currently 80 billion trillion to 1, they don't even notice him.
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#7
#7
lawgator1 said:
I admire you refusal to give up on this hopeless dream.

Not only is his view of the world too radical a change from what we all know, the business interests he would wipe out would crush him the instant they thought he had a million to one chance. As he's currently 80 billion trillion to 1, they don't even notice him.
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You almost had a decently long post free from ridiculous statements and you had to go and screw it up with the finale. Ron Paul was 3rd among Republicans in the last Gallup poll. Not straw poll. Gallup.
 
#8
#8
nbakerld said:
You almost had a decently long post free from ridiculous statements and you had to go and screw it up with the finale. Ron Paul was 3rd among Republicans in the last Gallup poll. Not straw poll. Gallup.
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The trick though is can he make it out of New Hampshire in front of Bachmann?
 
#9
#9
nbakerld said:
You almost had a decently long post free from ridiculous statements and you had to go and screw it up with the finale. Ron Paul was 3rd among Republicans in the last Gallup poll. Not straw poll. Gallup.
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So he's more like 100 billion trillion to 1. Good catch, my bad.
 
#11
#11
#12
#12
nbakerld said:
About this time 4 years ago Obama had just over half the support Hillary had, according to Gallup. Today, according to Gallup, Paul has just over half the support Romney has.

This Gallup poll shows Paul within 2% of Obama if he were to win the Republican nomination. 100 billion trillion to 1?

Gallup poll: Ron Paul trails President Obama by 2 percent | The State Column
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. . . and I'm sure you know that none of that matters. At this point it's about which 3 candidates can make it out of Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina intact and we have a pretty good idea that Romney and Perry are going to be 2 of the 3.
 
#13
#13
GAVol said:
. . . and I'm sure you know that none of that matters. At this point it's about which 3 candidates can make it out of Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina intact and we have a pretty good idea that Romney and Perry are going to be 2 of the 3.
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Yeah. All I'm saying is that the odds don't look like the national debt to 1.
 
#14
#14
nbakerld said:
About this time 4 years ago Obama had just over half the support Hillary had, according to Gallup. Today, according to Gallup, Paul has just over half the support Romney has.

This Gallup poll shows Paul within 2% of Obama if he were to win the Republican nomination. 100 billion trillion to 1?

Gallup poll: Ron Paul trails President Obama by 2 percent | The State Column
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GAVol said:
. . . and I'm sure you know that none of that matters. At this point it's about which 3 candidates can make it out of Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina intact and we have a pretty good idea that Romney and Perry are going to be 2 of the 3.
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Until Bachmann reverted to her actual self in the last couple of weeks I thought she might be able to challenge Perry or Romney, but I think she's done herself in. Nonbinding straw polls are one thing, actual delegate-determining primaries quite another.

It seems rather obvious that the two who are able to raise any money and have a national presence are Perry and Romney. The GOP has basically used Bachmann to rile up the Evangelical base, but come serious time, voters in the primaries will want to support one of the two who actually have a chance, and that's Perry and Romney.

In the end, too many far right gaffes by Perry, Romney keeps his head down, and Romney wins a rather lukewarm victory for the nomination, but with the TPers and far right otherwise feeling very dissatisfied.

Romney gives them the finger by picking Hunstman as his VP. There is a month or so of third party speculation, but Romney promises the TP something like a balanced budget or abortion laws (or both) and mollifies them enough to stave off any serious third party talk.

And then its a question of the economy come August-Sept of next year.
 
#15
#15
One thing is for sure, he has shaped the debate. The things he has railed about in the last 30 years are at the center of the debate.

I'm not sure he can win myself, he has my vote though. He had it in 08, i could not hold my nose and vote for McCain.


Edit: Perry scares me to death, he is Bush 3.0, more huge government, more spending, more wars, and a dollar that is dead in the water.
If Perry is elected, we are in serious trouble.
 
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#16
#16
Paul is too all over the map to win this via the traditional Primaries then on to General as it stands now. He's way too opposite (I don't want to say left) on some issues for him to gain much traction in the primaries. Most all Republicans love his fiscal policy, however, when you start getting into his stances on Foreign Policy/National Security that's where he falls off the cliff. Heck, I'm more open to him than most Conservatives, and I see the overall gist of his Military stance. But going the way he wants too, I think is a good deal of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater."
 
#17
#17
OrangeYankee said:
Paul is too all over the map to win this via the traditional Primaries then on to General as it stands now. He's way too opposite (I don't want to say left) on some issues for him to gain much traction in the primaries. Most all Republicans love his fiscal policy, however, when you start getting into his stances on Foreign Policy/National Security and personal privacy rights that's where he falls off the cliff. Heck, I'm more open to him than most Conservatives, and I see the overall gist of his Military stance. But going the way he wants too, I think is a good deal of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater."
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fyp

See, that's the real truth here.

For all their hoopla about being all about fiscal restraint and balanced budget, the hard right will never put up a guy that is saying -- and truly means -- everything they believe in on fiscal policy....

Because he won't f with gays, abortion, marijuana, and all their values oriented buggaboos.

Fiscal conservatism is great rhetoric, but when push comes to shove the far right in the GOP still wants to tell you how to live your life, indeed far more than do their Democratic counterparts.
 
#18
#18
I pray Ron Paul wins. But, I think there is a force that is determined to not let him win. Hopefully we can educate some people and get them on the Ron Paul boat. Get our country back...
 
#19
#19
VolsByNature said:
I pray Ron Paul wins. But, I think there is a force that is determined to not let him win. Hopefully we can educate some people and get them on the Ron Paul boat. Get our country back...
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His momentum is growing. Thing is, people are so used to the status quo of politicians lying their a** off And cutting back room deals they don't really know how to respond to a man that tells the painful truth.

IMO, most people are quite happy with the government taking care of them from cradle to grave and they don't want to give up the gravy train.
If America truly wants a (true) conservative to get our financial house in order and stop all these UNDECLARED wars and respect the constuition Dr. Paul is the only choice. I pray that he wins, but I don't know....
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#20
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lawgator1 said:
In the end, too many far right gaffes by Perry, Romney keeps his head down, and Romney wins a rather lukewarm victory for the nomination, but with the TPers and far right otherwise feeling very dissatisfied.

Romney gives them the finger by picking Hunstman as his VP. There is a month or so of third party speculation, but Romney promises the TP something like a balanced budget or abortion laws (or both) and mollifies them enough to stave off any serious third party talk.
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If Romney wins the nomination and picks somebody like Huntsman, he might as well pin a sign to his forehead at the convention begging for a 3rd party candidate from the TP.
 
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#21
#21
VolsByNature said:
I pray Ron Paul wins. But, I think there is a force that is determined to not let him win. Hopefully we can educate some people and get them on the Ron Paul boat. Get our country back...
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The conspiracy talk is part of what keeps him from gaining more traction IMO.
 
#22
#22
Romney would not pick Huntsman - they are too similar. Also, the coveted Utah vote ain't worth a VP pick.

He'll go Rubio or someone else from a large swing state.

Rubio would bring the TP and destroy Biden in a VP debate.
 
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#23
#23
volinbham said:
Romney would not pick Huntsman - they are too similar. Also, the coveted Utah vote ain't worth a VP pick.

He'll go Rubio or someone else from a large swing state.

Rubio would bring the TP and destroy Biden in a VP debate.
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I think the Romney/Huntsman ticket was just LG's fantasy about how the GOP could screw the pooch.
 
#24
#24
lawgator1 said:
fyp

See, that's the real truth here.

For all their hoopla about being all about fiscal restraint and balanced budget, the hard right will never put up a guy that is saying -- and truly means -- everything they believe in on fiscal policy....

Because he won't f with gays, abortion, marijuana, and all their values oriented buggaboos.

Fiscal conservatism is great rhetoric, but when push comes to shove the far right in the GOP still wants to tell you how to live your life, indeed far more than do their Democratic counterparts.
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Incorrect. While the far right goes in with drugs, gay marriage, etc, the far left want to tell you how much money you can have, how much energy you use, what you can eat, what you can think, what you can say. The far left wants to control your life just as much as the far right, don't kid yourself.
 
#25
#25
DEFENDTHISHOUSE said:
His momentum is growing. Thing is, people are so used to the status quo of politicians lying their a** off And cutting back room deals they don't really know how to respond to a man that tells the painful truth.

IMO, most people are quite happy with the government taking care of them from cradle to grave and they don't want to give up the gravy train.
If America truly wants a (true) conservative to get our financial house in order and stop all these UNDECLARED wars and respect the constuition Dr. Paul is the only choice. I pray that he wins, but I don't know....
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

Well said
 
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