D4H's 2018 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings

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Dobbs 4 Heisman

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#1
Well here it is. The moment you've all been waiting for. Hours of tape study went into this. I tried my best to make sure these rankings were as close to perfect as I could get. I'm sorry about the long delay but this is my most extensive draft rankings yet. And for good reason. The 2018 NFL Draft has a chance to be the best in NFL history. Yes, you heard that right. I thought last year's draft class was incredible, this year's class blows it out of the water in almost every position group. There are so many great players in this class its ridiculous. This is one of the reasons I took so long with my rankings this time around. There were so many great players, that I had a hard time ranking guys against one another so I had to constantly go back to the tape to try and distinguish between players I really liked. So without further ado, here it goes:

Grading System
Top 5 grade = Perennial All-Pro
Top 10 grade = Potential All-Pro
1st round grade = Pro-Bowl caliber player
2nd round grade = Instant NFL starter with the chance to become a Pro-Bowl caliber player
3rd round grade = Chance to become NFL starter
4th round grade = NFL backup or special teams player
5th-7th round grade = 50/50 chance to make NFL roster


Quarterbacks: (Position Grade = A+)
1. Josh Allen (Wyoming) - Top 10 grade......NFL comp: Dan Marino with mobility
2. Lamar Jackson (Louisville) - Top 10 grade......NFL comp: Michael Vick
3. Sam Darnold (USC) - 1st round grade......NFL comp: Matt Stafford with less arm strength
4. Josh Rosen (UCLA) - 1st round grade......NFL comp: Eli Manning with durability concerns
5. Kyle Lauletta (Richmond) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Alex Smith
6. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Rex Grossman
7. Riley Ferguson (Memphis) - 3rd round grade
8. Mike White (Western Kentucky) - 4th round grade
9. Kurt Benkert (Virginia) - 4th round grade
10 (tie). Luke Falk (Washington St.) - 4th round grade......NFL comp: Landry Jones
10 (tie). Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St.) - 4th round grade

The 2018 QB class has a chance to go down (alongside the 1983 and 2004 QB classes) as one of greatest QB drafts in NFL history. I believe there are 4 bonafide franchise QBs in this class: Josh Allen (Wyoming), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Sam Darnold (USC), and Josh Rosen (UCLA). Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson stand out as the best QBs in this class because of their high ceilings. Both have a chance to be among the best players to ever play in the NFL because of their freakish athletic ability. Josh Allen has arguably the most talented arm in NFL history. While Lamar Jackson is arguably the most athletic QB in NFL history. There are very few QBs in NFL history with their level of talent. And even if they don't reach their full potential, Allen and Jackson can still be high level starters in the NFL. With regard to Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, I like both QBs a lot. In any other year, they would both be slam dunk #1 overall picks. Both should be high level starters in the NFL. The only reason I have them ranked lower than Allen and Jackson is because they lack the ability to carry a team on their back the way Allen and Jackson can because of their superior physical gifts. After the top 4 QBs, I like Kyle Lauletta (Richmond) as my Day 2 sleeper. I believe that he has the best chance of the rest of the QBs in this draft to be develop into a solid starter in the league. As you can see from my rankings, I'm not that high on Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma). I honestly don't get the hype surrouding him. I know he was a successful college QB, but college and the NFL are two different things. I'm not even that hung up on his off-field issues (which are a concern). My main issue with him is on-field ability. I don't think he has the physical skill set to be great QB in the NFL. His size is a concern. And unlike Russell Wilson (who Mayfield has unfairly been compared to) he lacks the elite athleticism to make up for his stature. The offense he came out of is also a concern. There is very little in the form of NFL throws from Mayfield's college tape. More than any other QB in this class, Baker Mayfield is a complete projection because there is little to take from his success in college that translates to the NFL. I don't get why people are ignoring these concerns but in my opinion he's the riskiest QB prospect in this class. There are too many questions surrounding him for me to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on him. I believe he's the most likely bust in this QB class. With regard to the rest of the QB class, I believe it is filled with QBs who can be decent backups and spot starters in the NFL. Of those, I like Mike White (Western Kentucky). I doubt he'll ever be a consistent starter. However, he can be a very valuable backup QB.


Running Backs: (Position Grade = A+)
1. Saquon Barkley (Penn State) - Top 5 grade.....NFL comp: Fred Taylor
2. Rashaad Penny (San Diego St.) - Top 10 grade......NFL comp: Curtis Martin
3. Mark Walton (Miami) - 1st round grade
4 (tie). Ronald Jones II (USC) - 1st round grade.......NFL comp: Jamaal Charles
4 (tie). John Kelly (Tennessee) - 1st round grade.......NFL comp: Priest Holmes
6. Sony Michel (Georgia) - 2nd round grade
7. Royce Freeman (Oregon) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Carlos Hyde
8. Nick Chubb (Georgia) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Jonathan Stewart
9. Kerryon Johnson (Auburn) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: DeMarco Murray
10. Derrius Guice (LSU) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Doug Martin
11. Kallen Ballage (Arizona St.) - 3rd round grade
12. Bo Scarbrough (Alabama) - 3rd round grade
13. Justin Jackson (Northwestern) - 3rd round grade
14. Akrum Wadley (Iowa) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Theo Riddick
15. Josh Adams (Notre Dame) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Chris Brown

Simply put, the 2018 RB class is the greatest RB class in NFL history. I have not seen this much talent at the RB position in one draft class before. As long as these guys can stay relatively healthy, I'm sure they will break many records when it comes to accomplishments by a RB class. I wouldn't be surprised if they go down like the 1996 WR class when it comes to impact by a position group from a single draft class. There are 5 bonafide SUPERSTARS in this class (Barkley, Penny, Walton, Jones II, and Kelly) as well as another 5 that will make huge impacts in the league (Michel, Freeman, Chubb, Johnson, and Guice). Last year's RB class was good. This year's class blows it out of the water. And leading the pack is Saquon Barkley (Penn State). There is no doubt in my mind that he will be the best RB in the NFL the second he steps foot on the field this fall. His talent level is that elite. And after him, there should many others that will make huge impacts. Don't be surprised if Rashaad Penny (San Diego St.) follows Kareem Hunt as a mid-round RB who ends up leading the league in rushing as a rookie.


Wide Receivers: (Position Grade = A-)
1. Antonio Callaway (Florida) - Top 5 grade.....NFL comp: Sterling Sharpe
2. Anthony Miller (Memphis) - 1st round grade.....NFL comp: Antonio Brown-lite
3. Equanimeous St. Brown (Notre Dame) - 1st round grade
4. Cedrick Wilson (Boise St.) - 1st round grade....NFL comp: Michael Thomas
5. DJ Moore (Maryland) - 1st round grade......NFL comp: Percy Harvin
6. Michael Gallup (Colorado St.) - 2nd round grade
7. J'Mon Moore (Missouri) - 2nd round grade......NFL comp: Joe Horn
8. Allen Lazard (Iowa St.) - 2nd round grade
9. Jordan Lasley (UCLA) - 2nd round grade
10. Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Golden Tate
11. Deon Cain (Clemson) - 3rd round grade
12. James Washington (Oklahoma St.) - 3rd round grade....NFL comp: Chris Chambers
13. Courtland Sutton (SMU) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: J.J. Stokes
14. Calvin Ridley (Alabama) - 3rd round grade
15 (tie). DJ Chark (LSU) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Kevin Dyson
15 (tie). Dante Pettis (Washington) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Doug Baldwin

This is a very underrated position group in this year's draft in my opinion. As you can see, I'm not high on the prospects currently projected to be drafted the highest (i.e. Calvin Ridley and Courland Sutton), however, I am high on quite a few other guys who are currently undervalued but I believe will be huge stars in the NFL. Starting it off is Antonio Callaway (Florida). I have been a huge fan of this guy since I first saw him play as a true freshmen. The kid has SUPERSTAR written all over him. His movements on the field are so fluid. His hands are natural. He runs crisp routes. Antonio Callaway just knows how to play football. There is no doubt in my mind that as long as he stays out of trouble (which I believe he can do because he's a good kid) he will be a perenial All-Pro in the NFL. He has a good chance to develop into the best WR in the NFL. His talent is that elite. After Callaway, I love Anthony Miller (Memphis). I know its crazy to compare anyone to Antonio Brown, but its hard for me to watch his film and not see a mini-version of Antonio Brown. Equanimeous St. Brown (Notre Dame) and Cedrick Wilson (Boise St.) are big athletic wide receivers that have the size and speed to develop into true #1 outside receivers. DJ Moore (Maryland) is a versatile player who can play in the slot and the outside. He could even line up at RB. I'm also a big fan of Michael Gallup (Colorado St.), J'Mon Moore (Missouri), Allen Lazard (Iowa St.), and Jordan Lasley (UCLA). They should all make noise in the league. This receiver class has elite talent at the top and depth throughout. I have a feeling that people will look back at this class more fondly than they look at it right now.


Tight Ends: (Position Grade = C)
1. Dallas Goedert (South Dakota St.) - 1st round grade....NFL comp: Travis Kelce
2. Ian Thomas (Indiana) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Julius Thomas
3. Mike Gesiki (Penn State) - 2nd round grade
4. Mark Andrews (Oklahoma) - 2nd round grade
5. Jaylen Samuels (NC State) - 3rd round grade
6. Christopher Herndon (Miami) - 3rd round grade
7. Hayden Hurst (South Carolina) - 3rd round grade
8. Troy Fumagalli (Wisconsin) - 3rd round grade
9. Ethan Wolfe (Tennessee) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Gary Barnidge
10. Jordan Thomas (Mississippi St.) - 4th round grade

The 2018 tight end class is rather average. My favorite prospect in the group is Dallas Goedert (South Dakota St.). He has the best chance in this group to develop into a pro-bowl caliber player. He reminds me a lot of Travis Kelce in terms of size and athelticism. After him, I also like Ian Thomas (Indiana). He's very big and athletic. Reminds me a lot of Julius Thomas. Mike Gesiki (Penn State) is a freak athlete with the potential to be a dangerous receiver in the redzone. I grouped Jaylen Samuels (NC State) with the tight ends because that is where he was placed for the combine workouts. However, in the NFL, I would imagine his role will be more that of a halfback. He's the classic guy without a natural position but is good at many different things. I could see a team like New England utlizing his skill set to make him a dangerous offensive weapon.


Offensive Line: (Position Grade = B-)
1. Frank Ragnow (Arkansas) - Top 10 grade
2. Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) - Top 10 grade....NFL comp: Zach Martin
3. Will Hernandez (UTEP) - 1st round grade
4. Isaiah Wynn (Georgia) - 1st round grade
5. James Daniels (Iowa) - 2nd round grade....NFL comp: Damien Woody
6. Kolton Miller (UCLA) - 2nd round grade....NFL comp: Nate Solder
7. Connor Williams (Texas) - 2nd round grade
8. Mike McGlinchey (Notre Dame) - 3rd round grade
9. Tyrell Crosby (Oregon) - 3rd round grade......NFL comp: Chris Williams
10 (tie). Brian O'Neal (Pittsburgh) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Jamarco Jones (Ohio St.) - 3rd round grade

While the overall offensive line class isn't that great this year, the interior offensive line talent in this year's draft is ELITE. All 4 of my projected 1st rounders in this group are interior offensive lineman. However, since the class of offensive tackles is once again very weak, the overall grade of the position group is a B-. Let me start off with what should get the most attention: How is Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame) not #1? First, let me say that I like Quenton Nelson. As you can see, I believe he will be an All-Pro caliber player and I have compared him to Zach Martin (arguably the best interior lineman in the NFL right now). I just like Frank Ragnow (Arkansas) more. In terms of tape, I believe they are both exceptional. I give the edge to Ragnow because of his superior athleticism. Quenton Nelson is strong and powerful but he isn't exactly an elite athlete for the position. Frank Ragnow, on the other hand, is an elite athlete for his position hence why he's in the top spot. After those two, I really like Will Hernandez (UTEP) and Isaiah Wynn (Georgia). Both should be Pro Bowl caliber players in the NFL. The offensive tackles as a group are very weak, however, one or two of them should develop into solid starters. Of those, I like Kolton Miller (UCLA). He tested as the best athlete among the tackles at the combine. And offensive line is one of the position groups where athletic testing at the combine correlate the most to NFL success.


Edge Rushers: (Position Grade = A-)
1. Marcus Davenport (UTSA) - Top 10 grade.....NFL comp: Jason Taylor
2. Bradley Chubb (NC State) - Top 10 grade.......NFL comp: Peter Boulware
3. Arden Key (LSU) - Top 10 grade.......NFL comp: Simeon Rice
4. Harold Landry (Boston College) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Anthony Barr
5. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (Oklahoma) - 2nd round grade......NFL comp: mini Justin Houston
6. Uchenna Nwosu (USC) - 2nd round grade
7. Jeff Holland (Auburn) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Melvin Ingram
8. Sam Hubbard (Ohio St.) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Chris Long
9. Josh Sweat (Florida St.) - 2nd round grade....NFL comp: Jadeveon Clowney-lite
10. Tyquan Lewis (Ohio St.) - 2nd round grade
11. Dorance Armstrong Jr. (Kansas) - 3rd round grade
12. Lorenzo Carter (Georgia) - 3rd round grade
13. Kemoko Turay (Rutgers) - 3rd round grade
14. Jayln Holmes (Ohio St.) - 3rd round grade
15. Kylie Fitts (Utah) - 3rd round grade

This year's edge rusher class is getting maligned and I don't know why. I believe that there are 3 elite edge rushing prospects in this year's draft (Marcus Davenport, Bradley Chubb, and Arden Key) while there was only 1 in last year's draft (Myles Garrett). Of the three, Marcus Davenport (UTSA) is the most physically gifted. He reminds me a lot of Hall of Fame DE Jason Taylor in terms of size, athletic ability, and playing style. Now I do think it'll take him a few years to develop (in relation to someone like Bradley Chubb who is more polished right now), but when he does, he should be a dominant player in the NFL. Bradley Chubb (NC State) is the most ready to dominate right away. He's my favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year next season. Arden Key (LSU) was spectacular as a sophomore but really regressed this past season with off-field issues and poor play on the field (primarily because of weight issues). He also performed very poorly in terms of athletic testing during the pre-draft period. This has knocked him down from a top 10 overall pick before the season to probably a 2nd round pick now. Nonetheless, I'm still a believer in his talent and NFL potential. His sophomore tape was just too good to forget. In terms of pro comparisons, Arden Key reminds me a lot of Simeon Rice in terms of size, length, and playing style. Hopefully he can stay out of trouble and play up to his potential. The rest of the group has a lot of talented players that should be solid starters. There is not only elite talent at the top of this edge rusher class but also some good depth throughout. Like the wide receiver class, this group will be more well-thought of in a few years than they are right now.


Defensive Tackles: (Position Grade = B+)
1. Tim Settle (Virginia Tech) - Top 10 grade.....NFL comp: Cortez Kennedy
2. Vita Vea (Washington) - Top 10 grade......NFL comp: Haloti Ngata
3. Taven Bryan (Florida) - 1st round grade
4. Da'Ron Payne (Alabama) - 2nd round grade
5. Harrison Phillips (Stanford) - 2nd round grade
6. Rasheem Green (USC) - 3rd round grade
7. Nathan Shepard (Fort Valley St.) - 3rd round grade
8. Maurice Hurst (Michigan) - 3rd round grade
9. Trenton Thompson (Georgia) - 3rd round grade
10. Kahlil McKenzie (Tennessee) - 3rd round grade
11. BJ Hill (NC State) - 3rd round grade
12. Kendal Vickers (Tennessee) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Ray McDonald
13. PJ Hall (Sam Houston St.) - 3rd round grade
14. Andrew Brown (Virginia) - 4th round grade
15. Da'Shawn Hand (Alabama) - 4th round grade

This year's defensive tackle class is very talented. Leading the way is the freakishly talented Tim Settle (Virginia Tech). I know he's not projected to be drafted in the 1st round but I believe in due time he will develop into the best interior defensive lineman from this class. A man his size should not move the way he does. Tim Settle is the size of a nose tackle but has the first step explosion of a 3-technique the size of Aaron Donald. He has some baby fat he needs to lose. But once he does, he should be a dominant force in the NFL like Cortez Kennedy. After Settle, I also like Vita Vea (Washington). He reminds me a lot of Haloti Ngata. He should be a dominant run stopper in the NFL. He's behind Settle only because he doesn't provide as much potential as a pass rusher. Taven Bryan (Florida) is third on my list because he might be the best interior pass rusher in this class. His first step explosion and power is incredible. I also high on Da'Ron Payne (Alabama) and Harrison Phillips (Stanford). The only reason they are not first rounders in my opinion is because they lack the athleticism of the three guys ahead of them. However, they should be very good players in the NFL. After the top five, there is still a lot of talent in this class. Guys like Trenton Thompson (Georgia) and Kahlil McKenzie (Tennessee) were highly recruited out of high school and while they never lived up to that star ranking in college, they have the athletic ability to be solid starters in the NFL.


Linebackers: (Position Grade = B+)
1. Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St.) - Top 5 grade......NFL comp: Jack Lambert
2. Fred Warner (BYU) - Top 10 grade
3. Micah Kiser (Virginia) - 1st round grade.....NFL comp: poor man's Ray Lewis
4. Rashaan Evans (Alabama) - 2nd round grade
5. Roquan Smith (Georgia) - 2nd round grade....NFL comp: Keith Rivers
6. Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech) - 2nd round grade
7. Daruis Leonard (South Carolina St.) - 3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Telvin Smith
8. Matthew Thomas (Florida St.) - 3rd round grade
9. Skai Moore (South Carolina) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Josy Jewell (Iowa) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Jerome Baker (Ohio St.) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Malik Jefferson (Texas) - 3rd round grade

I like this year's LB class, though I'm not quite as high on the same guys as everyone else. First, let me address the elephant in the room: Why so low on Roquan Smith (Georgia) and Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech)? They are after all the consensus top 2 linebackers in this year's class. While I do like Edmunds athletic ability, I am very concerned with his instincts. Far too many times he's shown poor recognition and reaction time to quick developing plays. In the NFL, where everyone is fast, the difference in being an average player and an elite player are instincts. And I'm very concerned about Edmunds instincts. Edumunds is also not great at taking on blockers. I've seen him get easily blocked way too many times. Sure his highight tape look great and he does have prototypical measureables, I'm not confident he'll be able to play up to that physical potential given his subpar instincts. While Roquan Smith does not have poor instincts, what he does lack is prototypical size for an inside linebacker and the ability take on blockers. At Georgia, most of his plays were made down the field when no one got a hand on him. When there were plays run right at him, he did not show the ability to shed blocks. My favorite linebacker in this class is Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St.) by a wide margin. He's got the measureables and athleticism of Tremaine Edmunds but also elite instincts and the ability to take on and shed blockers. I believe he has a chance to become the best middle linebacker in the NFL. He's that talented. Not too far behind Vander Esch is another small school product, Fred Warner (BYU) that I'm high on. I got on him late in the process and was shocked there was not much hype about him. He's fast, athletic, and makes plays all over the field. Plus he's not exactly a small guy. He's not as big as Vander Esch but he has the measureables to be a Bobby Wagner-esque linebacker in the NFL. My third favorite linebacker in this class is another lightly regarded prospect, Micah Kiser (Virginia). I know some of you will lose your minds at the thought of someone being compared to Ray Lewis, but I couldn't help seeing the similarities between Kiser and Ray Lewis while watching his tape. They have similar measureables and movements. Now I'm not saying Kiser can be as good as Ray Lewis. He definitely doesn't have the athletic ability of a young Ray Lewis. But he does look and move very similar to Ray Lewis in his early 30s. And even at that age Ray Lewis was still a very good player which I believe Kiser can become. He was very productive in college and the biggest question on him was athleticism. However, at the combine he tested as a decent athlete so I don't know why people aren't higher on him. I see a very productive, talented, and better than expected athlete.


Cornerbacks: (Position Grade = A)
1. Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama) - Top 5 grade......NFL comp: Rod Woodson
2. Brandon Facyson (Virginia Tech) - Top 10 grade.....NFL comp: Antonio Cromartie
3. Jaire Alexander (Louisville) - 1st round grade
4. Carlton Davis (Auburn) - 1st round grade
5. Donte Jackson (LSU) - 2nd round grade......NFL comp: Mike Jenkins
6. Mike Hughes (UCF) - 2nd round grade.......NFL comp: Orlando Scandrick
7. Denzel Ward (Ohio St.) - 2nd round grade
8. Rashaan Gaulden (Tennessee) - 2nd round grade
9. JaMarcus King (South Carolina) - 2nd round grade.....NFL comp: Al Harris
10. M.J. Stewart (North Carolina) - 2nd round grade....NFL comp: R.W. McQuarters
11. D.J. Reed (Kansas St.) - 2nd round grade
12. Josh Jackson (Iowa) - 3rd round grade
13. Isaiah Oliver (Colorado) - 3rd round grade
14. Parry Nickerson (Tulane) - 3rd round grade
15 (tie). Anthony Averett (Alabama) - 3rd round grade
15 (tie). Holton Hill (Texas) - 3rd round grade
15 (tie). Nick Nelson (Wisconsin) - 3rd round grade

This is another position group where I disagree with the consensus. My top CB is Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama). I don't understand why some many people are saying he's a safety. He rarely played that in college. And its not like he doesn't have the skill set to be a dominant outside CB. In my opinion this talk of him being a safety is silly. He's a #1 CB in this draft and a future All-Pro at the position. He reminds me a lot of Hall of Famer Rod Woodson. Both were ball-hawks who also were very physical against the run. Minkah Fitzpatrick should immediately be one of the best players in the NFL at his position. The biggest relevation for me during this whole draft evaluation period was Brandon Facyson (Virginia Tech). I'm honestly shocked that he isn't more highly regarded. He looks like the perfect press outside corner in a Cover 2 or Cover 3 scheme. He would be perfect for a team like the Seattle Seahawks. He's tall, long, extremely physical, and athletic. Not to mention very smart and hard-working. This kid checks so many boxes. I don't know when he'll be drafted, but whoever gets him will be getting a huge steal. He's got All-Pro potential. After Fitzpatrick and Facyson, I also like Jaire Alexander (Louisville) and Carlton Davis (Auburn). Alexander is versatile enough to play both in the slot and on the outside. He's also a dangerous returner. He exudes the sort of confidence that elite #1 corners in the NFL exude. He should be a big-time star in the league. Carlton Davis is a lot like Brandon Facyson. He's a big physical corner with very good athelticism. He should also excel as a press corner in a cover 2 or cover 3 scheme. With regard to Denzel Ward (Ohio St.) who almost everyone else has as the #1 cornerback in this class, all I have to say is that he's a good player, I just prefer the guys I have ranked ahead of him more. My concerns with Denzel Ward are related to his size and lack of awareness and ball skills. While Ward possess elite atheliticism, far too many times he loses track of the ball and guys get catches on him when he is in good enough position to break it up. He also gets beat pretty easily by the bigger more physical WRs that can use their bodies to shield him off. He also has a tendency to get grabby with receivers down the field. Plays that aren't called interference in college will turn into flags in the NFL. Josh Jackson (Iowa) is a solid player who should start in the NFL, however, I have questions regarding his athletic ability to play man coverage. He can be a decent zone corner but he will need to be drafted to the right team to be successful. Overall, this is a very good class of cornerbacks. I was not high on the class initially because I started off my evaluations with the likes of Denzel Ward and Josh Jackson (who were the top rated prospects at the position according to most). However, as I discovered prospects like Brandon Facyson and Carlton Davis, my views on this year's cornerback class improved immensely.


Safeties: (Position Grade = C+)
1. Derwin James (Florida St.) - Top 5 grade......NFL comp: Steve Atwater
2. Terrell Edmunds (Virginia Tech) - 2nd round grade
3. Justin Reid (Stanford) - 2nd round grade
4. Dominick Sanders (Georgia) - 2nd round grade
5. Ronnie Harrison (Alabama) - 3rd round grade
6. Jessie Bates III (Wake Forest) - 3rd round grade....NFL comp: Thomas DeCoud
7. Terrell Williams (Houston) - 3rd round grade
8. Armani Watts (Texas A&M) - 3rd round grade
9. Tarvarius Moore (Southern Miss) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Marcus Allen (Penn State) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Dane Cruikshank (Arizona) - 3rd round grade
10 (tie). Deshon Elliott (Texas) - 3rd round grade

This year's safety class is definitely not as deep as last year's class. However, it is more talented at the very top. Derwin James (Florida St.) is the best safety prospect to enter the NFL since Eric Berry and Earl Thomas in 2010. He reminds me a lot of former Broncos All-Pro from the 1990s Steve Atwater. He's big, physical, fast, and instinctive. He can play both in the box as a strong safety but also as a single-high free safety in the middle of the field. He should develop into the best safety in the NFL. He's that good. After Derwin, this safety class is kinda thin. I like the potential of Terrell Edmunds (Virginia Tech). In many ways, I believe he's a better NFL prospect than his brother Tremaine. Justin Reid (Stanford) is another good safety prospect in this year's class. He's extremely athletic and can play not only free safety but nickel corner as well. Dominick Sanders (Georgia) is my sleeper candidate in this position. I have no idea when he will be drafted and I'm honestly surprised he doesn't have more buzz. He's played a lot of football in college and he did it at a high level at a big-time program like Georgia. I believe he's the all-time leader in interceptions in school history. And everytime I watched him play, he was making plays. I believe he has a chance to be a very good player in the NFL.


Top 50 Players

(All-Pro Caliber Players)

1. RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
2. QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
3. WR Antonio Callaway (Florida)
4. CB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
5. QB Lamar Jackson (Louisville)
6. LB Leighton Vander Esch (Boise St.)
7. S Derwin James (Florida St.)
8. DE Marcus Davenport (UTSA)
9. DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
10. RB Rashaad Penny (San Diego St.)
11. DT Tim Settle (Virginia Tech)
12. DT Vita Vea (Washington)
13. DE Arden Key (LSU)
14. CB Brandon Facyson (Virginia Tech)
15. LB Fred Warner (BYU)
16. C Frank Ragnow (Arkansas)
17. G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)

(Pro Bowl Caliber Players)

18. RB Mark Walton (Miami)
19. WR Anthony Miller (Memphis)
20. WR Equanimeous St. Brown (Notre Dame)
21. RB Ronald Jones II (USC)
22. RB John Kelly (Tennessee)
23. QB Sam Darnold (USC)
24. QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
25. G Will Hernandez (UTEP)
26. CB Jaire Alexander (Louisville)
27. CB Carlton Davis (Auburn)
28. WR Cedrick Wilson (Boise St.)
29. G Isaiah Wynn (Georgia)
30. WR DJ Moore (Maryland)
31. DT Taven Bryan (Florida)
32. TE Dallas Goedert (South Dakota St.)
33. LB Micah Kiser (Virginia)

(Solid Starters)

34. CB Donte Jackson (LSU)
35. LB Rashaan Evans (Alabama)
36. WR Michael Gallup (Colorado St.)
37. WR J'Mon Moore (Missouri)
38. DT Da'Ron Payne (Alabama)
39. DT Harrison Phillips (Stanford)
40. RB Sony Michel (Georgia)
41. CB Mike Hughes (UCF)
42. LB Harold Landry (Boston College)
43. WR Allen Lazard (Iowa St.)
44. WR Jordan Lasley (UCLA)
45. CB Denzel Ward (Ohio St.)
46. RB Royce Freeman (Oregon)
47. RB Nick Chubb (Georgia)
48. S Terrell Edmunds (Virginia Tech)
49. RB Kerryon Johnson (Aurburn)
50. RB Derrius Guice (LSU)
 
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#4
#4
Based on the most cursory of glances the question about how the hell you make up your player comparisons must be raised again. Couple that jumped out immediately.

Mayfield had 1K+ yards and 21 TD's rushing while Grossman had a nagative career rushing total and 6 TD's.

You're seriously comparing Jones II and his 4.65 40 to Jamaal Charles, a sub-10.3 sprinter? Seriously?
 
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#9
#9
Based on the most cursory of glances the question about how the hell you make up your player comparisons must be raised again. Couple that jumped out immediately.

Mayfield had 1K+ yards and 21 TD's rushing while Grossman had a nagative career rushing total and 6 TD's.

You're seriously comparing Jones II and his 4.65 40 to Jamaal Charles, a sub-10.3 sprinter? Seriously?

I base my player comps primarily on similarities in measurables (height, weight, and athleticism) as well as playing style. For example, if I'm watching tape on a guy, who does he remind me of the most in terms of how he plays.

With regard to the Baker Mayfield/Rex Grossman comparison, I think you have to take into account the difference in conference and scheme. Rex Grossman played in the SEC during a time when there were a ton of defensive players getting drafted into the NFL every year while Baker Mayfield has played in the Big 12 during an era with very players getting drafted. Also, you gotta take into account that the read option wasn't that heavily utilized in the early 2000s while its a staple of all spread offenses today. If you look at Baker Mayfield's athletic testing at the combine you would see he's hardly a great athlete. Don't expect any of those running stats to translate to the NFL. Baker Mayfield will be as immobile as Rex Grossman in the NFL.

With regard to Ronald Jones II, you should know that he pulled up lame with a hamstring injury during the combine when he ran that 4.65 40. He worked out a few weeks ago at his Pro Day and even though he wasn't 100% healthy, he ran a 4.4 40. I'm pretty sure when he's 100% healthy that Ronald Jones II has 4.3 speed like Jamaal Charles. Remember, Jones was also part of the track team at USC. So its not like he wasn't a track star as well.
 
#10
#10
You could eat 2 or 3 bags before finishing this book

It was a lot of work. But this is a great draft class so it was well worth it.

Most of the players who will dominate the NFL from 2020-2025 will be coming from this draft class. Its that talented. The 2017 class will also make up a huge chunk of those players as well.

2017 and 2018 NFL Drafts = LEGENDARY
 
#11
#11
You have Antonio Callaway as your number 3 overall player...and you continued to think it was a good idea to stick with this?
Without hyperbole, my 8 yr old son could come up with a better list of rankings than this. I don't have the energy to rip this whole thing apart like it should be, and that's mostly because I feel sorry for you. Not like in a passive-aggressive message board kind of a way. I mean it. Find a girlfriend. Find a friend. Find a hobby...something you're good at. This just isn't your thing, friend. Best of luck to you, though!
 
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#12
#12
I base my player comps primarily on similarities in measurables (height, weight, and athleticism) as well as playing style. For example, if I'm watching tape on a guy, who does he remind me of the most in terms of how he plays.

With regard to the Baker Mayfield/Rex Grossman comparison, I think you have to take into account the difference in conference and scheme. Rex Grossman played in the SEC during a time when there were a ton of defensive players getting drafted into the NFL every year while Baker Mayfield has p itlayed in the Big 12 during an era with very players getting drafted. Also, you gotta take into account that the read option wasn't that heavily utilized in the early 2000s while its a staple of all spread offenses today. If you look at Baker Mayfield's athletic testing at the combine you would see he's hardly a great athlete. Don't expect any of those running stats to translate to the NFL. Baker Mayfield will be as immobile as Rex Grossman in the NFL.

With regard to Ronald Jones II, you should know that he pulled up lame with a hamstring injury during the combine when he ran that 4.65 40. He worked out a few weeks ago at his Pro Day and even though he wasn't 100% healthy, he ran a 4.4 40. I'm pretty sure when he's 100% healthy that Ronald Jones II has 4.3 speed like Jamaal Charles. Remember, Jones was also part of the track team at USC. So its not like he wasn't a track star as well.

With regard to Jones that makes more sense then.

I'm still not feeling Grossman/Mayfield much. I wasn't selling BM as some great athletic rushing threat but he did actually show some ability. RG never showed anything. I mean the most yards he rushed for in any of his 11 seasons of college/pro ball was 48.
 
#13
#13
You have Antonio Callaway as your number 3 overall player...and you continued to think it was a good idea to stick with this?
Without hyperbole, my 8 yr old son could come up with a better list of rankings than this. I don't have the energy to rip this whole thing apart like it should be, and that's mostly because I feel sorry for you. Not like in a passive-aggressive message board kind of a way. I mean it. Find a girlfriend. Find a friend. Find a hobby...something you're good at. This just isn't your thing, friend. Best of luck to you, though!

I've been touting Antonio Callaway since his freshmen season. He's one of the surest things in this draft from a talent standpoint IMO. The only reason he isn't projected to go in the 1st round is because of character concerns.

I believe the character concerns with Antonio Callaway are not that serious. Last year, I told many on here that were getting on me for not having Reuben Foster as a 1st round prospect that his character was a concern and thus far I'm looking right. I judge players by their faces and I can usually tell whether someone is good or bad just by looking at them. And I'm telling you, Antonio Callaway is a good kid who needs a change of scenery. He's not a guy like Reuben Foster who has issues mentally and will mess up no matter where he goes. Callaway just needs a change of scenery. He was simply being misled by negative influences in Florida. Going to a team like Green Bay would be a God-sent for him.

Look for Antonio Callaway to be talked about as the BEST wide receiver in the NFL in a few years. He's that good.
 
#14
#14
With regard to Jones that makes more sense then.

I'm still not feeling Grossman/Mayfield much. I wasn't selling BM as some great athletic rushing threat but he did actually show some ability. RG never showed anything. I mean the most yards he rushed for in any of his 11 seasons of college/pro ball was 48.

My comparison for Baker Mayfield with Rex Grossman was based more on their similarities in terms of size and arm talent than running ability. You might be right and Mayfield might be the slightly better runner. But nonetheless, both guys are roughly the same height (6'1") and both have pretty strong arms for short QBs. That is the main reason I didn't compare Mayfield to someone like Case Keenum (which was a player I considered earlier). Mayfield has a stronger arm than Keenum. Rex Grossman is closest comp I could come up with in terms of size and arm strength.
 
#15
#15
D4H you know some of those top prospects will be bust. And on average half of the top qb's will not pan out... I didn't read it all, but what top picks do you see as potential busts?
 
#16
#16
D4H you know some of those top prospects will be bust. And on average half of the top qb's will not pan out... I didn't read it all, but what top picks do you see as potential busts?

I know that most of the guys drafted in the 1st round will be busts. That is why I try to not to just follow what the so-called "experts" are saying when it comes to projecting players at the next level.

With regard to the projected 1st rounders according to the media, I think the most likely to be busts:

QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
WR Calvin Ridley (Alabama)
WR Courtland Sutton (SMU)
LB Roquan Smith (Georgia)
LB Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech)
CB Denzel Ward (Ohio St.)
CB Josh Jackson (Iowa)

Now by bust I don't mean completely out of the league in 3-4 years. But rather guys that fail to live up to their draft position (which will most likely be high in the 1st round).
 
#18
#18
You have Antonio Callaway as your number 3 overall player...and you continued to think it was a good idea to stick with this?
Without hyperbole, my 8 yr old son could come up with a better list of rankings than this. I don't have the energy to rip this whole thing apart like it should be, and that's mostly because I feel sorry for you. Not like in a passive-aggressive message board kind of a way. I mean it. Find a girlfriend. Find a friend. Find a hobby...something you're good at. This just isn't your thing, friend. Best of luck to you, though!

Top 10 draft pick grade post. Reminds me of Jimmy the Greek.
 
#20
#20
On a real note.... If you did really want to pursue this there is a draft academy class you can take at draftacademy.com .... I mean to make you semi good at this... But Fitzpatrick will be one of the best out of this draft if not the best... So there is that.
 
#21
#21
I’ll go with Mayfield and Darnold as best quarterbacks 2-3 years from now

If Lamar Jackson ends up in right situation and can be a decent passer while running for 100+ and a td or 2 every week like Vick he could be very effective

From last years class Watson and Mahomes both look poised to ball out in 2018
 
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#22
#22
I don’t see the hype in Josh Allen

One of the dudes on tv the other day said he can’t even find one game where he really dominated and put the team on his back for a win. In the mountain west??? Not one game?

And he was 3rd team all mountain west??? That would scare me away more then anything

How do you justify taking that over Mayfield or Darnold
 
#23
#23
Great stuff D4H. Better than those quacks on ESPN for sure. You could probably get paid for this if you have a tv personality to describe this in front of a camera.


I appreciate the work. Can’t wait to go over this in more detail later today.
 
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#24
#24
I base my player comps primarily on similarities in measurables (height, weight, and athleticism) as well as playing style. For example, if I'm watching tape on a guy, who does he remind me of the most in terms of how he plays.

This has been stated ad nauseum, and it is fully evidenced by countless amounts of data, but none of the physical characteristics that you base your player comps, or predictions on, have any relevance if they do not translate to on-field production; i.e. the stats the you discredit unless they agree with your eye test.

A player can physically "look" like a good <insert position> player, but unless he performs on the field as well, then looking like a good player means literally nothing.
 
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#25
#25
I don’t see the hype in Josh Allen

One of the dudes on tv the other day said he can’t even find one game where he really dominated and put the team on his back for a win. In the mountain west??? Not one game?

And he was 3rd team all mountain west??? That would scare me away more then anything

How do you justify taking that over Mayfield or Darnold

The key to scouting is looking for TRAITS not production. Football is a team sport. So the players who have the most success in college whether it's in term of stats or wins aren't necessarily the best. They might just happen to have better teammates or coaches around them that make them look better than they really are. That's Mayfield. He's not that talented of a football player. He just happens to play with more talent than his opponent almost everytime in college and he had a great coach and offensive scheme that made him look good.

Josh Allen is simply more talented. You may not find games where he statistically dominated but I did see plenty of examples of his physical dominance. The guy has unprecedented physical tools. He's also very smart and hard working. It would shock me if he doesn't succeed.

Also the stuff about him Being inaccurate because of his low completion percentage is a myth. He played in an offense that didn't have many easy throws. He wasn't throwing 5-8 screen passes a game like Mayfield to pad his completion percentage. He also wasn't throwing many short passes. He was throwing the ball down the field. And naturally those passes will result in a lower completion percentage by their nature.

Josh Allen will be a SUPERSTAR in the NFL. I would suggest you get on that bandwagon now. Cause I'm sure it'll be full in 2 years.
 

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