I think you forgot to add Marvin Lewis to the sure fire change. 14 years with Cincinnati, zero playoff wins, and the Bengals are sitting at home this year.
Fox is probably gone in Chicago -- the Cardinals coach failed badly this season also -- he might be gone too -- the Texans GM should be fired for signing Osweiler to that crazy contract even though they made the playoffs -- forgot to add the Jets coach is likely gone too
The Denver job is not appealing as some people make it out to be. Taking a job with no proven quarterback and a bad offensive line is a recipe for disaster. If the Colts position opens up, I believe that will probably be the best job available. If Luck can just get a few pieces on the offensive line, I believe he's an elite quarterback, and can certainly make the playoffs in that sorry division, in comparison to the strong AFC west.