Atlanta Hawks/The Highlight Factory Thread

[Vercingetorix]

Originally Posted by OrangeWilly

I've become extremely apathetic concerning the Hawks.

Do they have elite talent to make a run? No
Are they going to win a title? No

They are just good enough to make the playoffs and lose in the first round every year.

Whats the point? That's where I'm at right now with them.

This was the Hawks' reality until this week. Trading Joe Johnson breaks the logjam and puts everything back on the table again. They may be awful for 10 years; they may manage to build a contender. But you can't just pencil them in as a 5-6 seed and first round exit anymore.

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

He's the DPOY, but most people don't consider him to be a good offensive player. He was 4th in the true scoring race, earning an average of 3.3 net points per game.

Pretty much everyone is under the assumption that you have to be scoring close to 20 per game to be elite. That is completely false.

Because he's so limited offensively. Most of his shots are dunks, layups, and easy putbacks. He can't create his own offense.

[GAVol]

Originally Posted by Vercingetorix

I believe exactly the same thing. I've been reading Bill James's books since 1984. The problem comes when you try to do to much with advanced metrics. And when you get to the point where you're lecturing fans who've watched a player for years and telling them that they're wrong about his effort level because of something you've seen on basketball-reference.com, you're trying to do too much with advanced stats. Especially in basketball, where it's vastly harder to tease out individual effort/skills/ability than in baseball stats, where everything's a one-on-one matchup. Most of us have watched hundreds of Marvin Williams games. How many have you watched?

Enjoy the Marvin Williams era in Utah. You may have to really dig down that second contract year to convince yourself that he's one of the best players in the league, but you seem to be the sort of fellow who's up to the task.

The nail has been hit squarely on the head.

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by zjcvols

Because he's so limited offensively. Most of his shots are dunks, layups, and easy putbacks. He can't create his own offense.

He does create his own offense with the 4 offensive rebounds he gets per 36 minutes. Also, there are plenty of 7' that take just 6 shots per game (dunks/layups) and none of them come remotely close to shooting 70%.

Whether or not he is versatile doesn't matter. It's all about the result. You can have a guy who can score 50 different ways, but if he scores 1 point per shot, you're merely treading water.

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by Vercingetorix

I believe exactly the same thing. I've been reading Bill James's books since 1984. The problem comes when you try to do to much with advanced metrics. And when you get to the point where you're lecturing fans who've watched a player for years and telling them that they're wrong about his effort level because of something you've seen on basketball-reference.com, you're trying to do too much with advanced stats. Especially in basketball, where it's vastly harder to tease out individual effort/skills/ability than in baseball stats, where everything's a one-on-one matchup. Most of us have watched hundreds of Marvin Williams games. How many have you watched?

Enjoy the Marvin Williams era in Utah. You may have to really dig down that second contract year to convince yourself that he's one of the best players in the league, but you seem to be the sort of fellow who's up to the task.

According to you....according to the statisticians basketball metrics are a lot more air tight, and much better predictors than baseball metrics.

I don't mean to insult anybody's knowledge of basketball. I'm saying we aren't nearly as smart as we think we are. There is no way you can tabulate, remember, and fairly assess all the plays Williams has made over the years. Our brains aren't capable of that. For whatever reason, certain plays/impressions Williams has made stand out in your mind and that is what you are judging him on.

I'm reading a book called Thinking....Fast and Slow. It's by a psychologist who won the nobel prize in economics. Basically he found that everybody overvalues their own personal expertise, and certain factors create biases in our minds that mislead us, even though we are sure we are right. We don't even believe the data that tells us otherwise. I wouldn't expect sports fans to be any different.

[TBrown]

Deandre Jordan shot 69% last year and he's one of the most limited offensive players in the game.

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

He does create his own offense with the 4 offensive rebounds he gets per 36 minutes. Also, there are plenty of 7' that take just 6 shots per game (dunks/layups) and none of them come remotely close to shooting 70%.

Whether or not he is versatile doesn't matter. It's all about the result. You can have a guy who can score 50 different ways, but if he scores 1 point per shot, you're merely treading water.

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by TBrown

Deandre Jordan shot 69% last year and he's one of the most limited offensive players in the game.

63%*, and yeah he's one of the few that can score at that level of efficiency from the field. They need to give Jordan about 8 more minutes per game.

*I guess you're talking about 2011 when he was shooting only 4 times per game, and he absolutely sucks at FT's. Chandler is a good FT shooter.

[OrangeWilly]

Originally Posted by Vercingetorix

This was the Hawks' reality until this week. Trading Joe Johnson breaks the logjam and puts everything back on the table again. They may be awful for 10 years; they may manage to build a contender. But you can't just pencil them in as a 5-6 seed and first round exit anymore.

Agreed.

I think you and I actually had a conversation in this thread about how giving Joe that max contract was a huge mistake.

[MadcapLaughs]

Hawks sign Louis Williams. Hope he's boys with Dwight Howard.

[_vol]

Originally Posted by MadcapLaughs

Hawks sign Louis Williams. Hope he's boys with Dwight Howard.

Coming back home it appears.

[n_huffhines]

How big was Williams' contract?

[GAVol]

How bad are the Hawks going? The mascot just had to be carted off the floor after a trampoline dunk gone awry.

[TOP]

Hawks are making me look bad. Even without Joe Johnson, they were looking great actually having Horford this season. Somewhere they've taken a turn for the worse the past couple weeks. I don't know what to make of it... Horford and Smith combined are crazy athletic. I think I get why they wanted Horford at pf with a legit center though. That would be a big front court. I like Smith at PF but he's kind of a tweener when it comes to defense and shooting. He lacks the strength/size against a power forward that likes to bang down low but he doesn't have the range you'd like for a small forward. He's an elite athlete and a great player that's stuck between two positions. It's a pretty weird thing because if he was a full on power forward or a full on small forward, he'd probably be a legit superstar. But he's a borderline one because his game isn't complete at either position.

[GAVol]

They need to just wash their hands of Josh Smith and move on. The last minute of the Knicks loss the other night was a perfect microcosm of why he's just not as good as he thinks. Inexplicably dribbles to half court, picks up his dribble and gets an over and back call. Gets absolutely abused by Carmelo in the final seconds and gives up a 3 point play. On the final possession, hangs out at the 3 point line and chucks up a brick as the buzzer sounds.

[tnfalcon]

Originally Posted by GAVol

They need to just wash their hands of Josh Smith and move on. The last minute of the Knicks loss the other night was a perfect microcosm of why he's just not as good as he thinks. Inexplicably dribbles to half court, picks up his dribble and gets an over and back call. Gets absolutely abused by Carmelo in the final seconds and gives up a 3 point play. On the final possession, hangs out at the 3 point line and chucks up a brick as the buzzer sounds.

But...but...he's a max player!!!

Jk...I agree completely. I actually think it's time to base this team around Jeff Teague's pick and roll ability.

I also hope Lou comes back alright.