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Old 10-01-2012, 04:59 PM   #91
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I was just kidding about charlotte. I'll probably go see them play some this year, they just suck something awful.

That football stat sounds interesting.
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:24 AM   #92
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Oh snap! Notables:

Kobe Bryant
Michael Beasley
Luis Scola
Al Harrington
Brandon Knight
Josh Smith
Jamal Crawford

Kobe Bryant and the NBA’s Other Terrible Offensive Players | The Wages of Wins Journal
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Old 10-05-2012, 09:40 AM   #93
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Shaq says Brooke Lopez is better than Dwight Howard. Almost nobody would agree, but the fact that Shaq thinks he can get away with saying that demonstrates basketball establishment is stupid. Lopez is a bad player. I don't understand it. There is nothing good about his game. He's athletic and huge, so he just "looks" right. He can't rebound. He can't bang. And he scores efficiently inside, but refuses to do that, shooting 15' jumpers all day. That guy got a max contract.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:25 PM   #94
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Shaq says Brooke Lopez is better than Dwight Howard. Almost nobody would agree, but the fact that Shaq thinks he can get away with saying that demonstrates basketball establishment is stupid. Lopez is a bad player. I don't understand it. There is nothing good about his game. He's athletic and huge, so he just "looks" right. He can't rebound. He can't bang. And he scores efficiently inside, but refuses to do that, shooting 15' jumpers all day. That guy got a max contract.
I'm sure it has nothing to do with Shaq egging on Howard because he stole his gimmick.
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:02 PM   #95
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It's not for everybody, but it proves to be hella accurate.

A summation of all the individual wins produced will demonstrate a predicted number of wins for a team. Usually very accurate:

Houston
Predicted wins: 33.4
Actual: 34

The NBA Geek - Stats for Houston Rockets

Dallas
Predicted wins: 36.3
Actual: 36

The NBA Geek - Stats for Dallas Mavericks

Charlotte
Predicted wins: 25.5
Actual: 21

The NBA Geek - Stats for New Orleans Hornets

Atlanta
Predicted wins: 40.6
Actual: 40

The NBA Geek - Stats for Atlanta Hawks

* I chose these 4 examples at random.
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Well, there is randomness no matter what*. A shortened season results in a little more randomness. Even still, do you think there's any scout that can look at their roster and accurately tell you within 4.5 games how many Charlotte will win next year?

*This is usually the result of a team winning a large amount of their close games, or losing a large amount of their close games. When we deal with averages, we have to predict the close games will average out evenly. If you only have 12 close games in a season it's somewhat likely you win a lot more or a lot less than half of those. If you have 40 close games in a season, it's a lot less likely to be skewed one way or the other.

Elaborating...relating this all to football, there are some interesting stats that I think are a testament to Peyton Manning's quality as a QB. Based on point differential, you can somewhat accurately predict how many games a team wins. For like 9 (?) straight seasons Manning's Colts outperformed their predicted record. What this means is for 9 straight seasons Manning won most of the close ones. He is an incredible game manager. Elway was the only other QB who had done it 7 seasons in their career. Montana only did it like 4 times.
Interesting. You should post the new predictions for the upcoming season so we can track it as the season progresses.

I will say, team statistics make more sense than individual player wins/loses.
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Old 10-06-2012, 11:06 PM   #96
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Shaq says Brooke Lopez is better than Dwight Howard. Almost nobody would agree, but the fact that Shaq thinks he can get away with saying that demonstrates basketball establishment is stupid. Lopez is a bad player. I don't understand it. There is nothing good about his game. He's athletic and huge, so he just "looks" right. He can't rebound. He can't bang. And he scores efficiently inside, but refuses to do that, shooting 15' jumpers all day. That guy got a max contract.
Yeah. Howard and Lopez should not even be in the same sentence. As a cynical Atlanta resident, I laughed my ass off at JJ getting a max contract. I guess max contracts don't mean what they use to.

To the bolded part, why do you have to get sexual? I don't even want to know how you know that about Lopez.
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Old 10-08-2012, 11:23 AM   #97
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Interesting. You should post the new predictions for the upcoming season so we can track it as the season progresses.

I will say, team statistics make more sense than individual player wins/loses.
That would take a lot of work. If Wages of Wins does it, I'll post their predictions. Injuries and trades make things difficult to predict.

The model works best in hindsight. It tells you who is responsible for the wins. It can predict accurately for the future if it knows the parameters. For instance, when Melo got traded they assumed he would stay healthy, play about 35 MPG, and that the Knicks would improve their record by about 1-2 wins. All of that turned out to be accurate, but if Melo had been hurt the prediction would've been bunk.
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Old 10-08-2012, 11:30 PM   #98
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That would take a lot of work. If Wages of Wins does it, I'll post their predictions. Injuries and trades make things difficult to predict.

The model works best in hindsight. It tells you who is responsible for the wins. It can predict accurately for the future if it knows the parameters. For instance, when Melo got traded they assumed he would stay healthy, play about 35 MPG, and that the Knicks would improve their record by about 1-2 wins. All of that turned out to be accurate, but if Melo had been hurt the prediction would've been bunk.
I didn't mean for you to do it by hand lol. If Wages of Wins or some other place does it, you should post it.

Injuries and trades go without saying. I don't think any rational person would hold that against the predictions. Although, if they do it by individual statistics or projected statistics, I don't see why they couldn't make a quick revision of their predictions.
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Old 10-09-2012, 11:59 AM   #99
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I didn't mean for you to do it by hand lol. If Wages of Wins or some other place does it, you should post it.

Injuries and trades go without saying. I don't think any rational person would hold that against the predictions. Although, if they do it by individual statistics or projected statistics, I don't see why they couldn't make a quick revision of their predictions.
It's hard because you don't know how the minutes will be allocated. If Melo gets hurt, who is picking up his minutes? We know like clockwork Melo will play 35, but with him out, 10 minutes will go to player X, 8 minutes to player Y, etc. and all of that is subject to change on a nightly basis.
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Old 10-09-2012, 12:14 PM   #100
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Speak of the devil. They don't know what to predict for rookies:

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Old 10-09-2012, 11:36 PM   #101
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It's hard because you don't know how the minutes will be allocated. If Melo gets hurt, who is picking up his minutes? We know like clockwork Melo will play 35, but with him out, 10 minutes will go to player X, 8 minutes to player Y, etc. and all of that is subject to change on a nightly basis.
One of the reasons I find it a bit dubious
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Old 10-09-2012, 11:38 PM   #102
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Thanks for posting. We will have to check on this prediction throughout the season.

Excuse my ignorance, but what exactly does "age model" mean? Depreciating players based on age?
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Old 10-15-2012, 11:02 AM   #103
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More evidence that your eyes lie to you. "Blinded by the height", the biggest personnel blunders are made among 4's and 5's. Coaches and GMs see size and can't think about anything else. This is why Barkley was never considered to be the #1 big in the draft by anyone, even though he was by far the best big.

Where Is the Talent Hiding in the NBA? | The Wages of Wins Journal
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Old 10-22-2012, 09:52 PM   #104
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I agree for the most part. It is the hardest position to scout.
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Old 10-22-2012, 10:13 PM   #105
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Interestingly PG is right there with PFs. It seems SG and SF are the easiest for teams to scout, although they obviously still get it very wrong at times.
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