Advanced Metrics Nonsense

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by Ernest Volmingway

MVP is Lebron's to lose. He's only averaging 26.5, 8.5, and 7. There's not another perimeter player shooting 55% and who averages those type of numbers. Honestly Lebron should win the MVP every year until he stops putting these type of numbers up, and if he doesn't win it it's because people are tired of voting for him.

And I agree with you. He's the best player in the league. He should win MVP till his reign is over.

[n_huffhines]

Lebron is the best player, but I think Durant is outplaying him so far this year.

[Ernest Volmingway]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

Lebron is the best player, but I think Durant is outplaying him so far this year.

Durant is the better shooter no doubt, but I think Lebron's body of work has been the best overall. It'll come down to Durant and Lebron though, and whoever does better in the h2h matchup and whoever's team has the better record will win it. But like you said I think he'll get the Jordan treatment unless he continues to average near triple dubs each night.

Regardless we're extremely lucky to witness these two go at it.. They're like the Bird-Magic rivalry of our generation, except they might be better..

[n_huffhines]

Jordan probably won too many MVPs. I don't think he had 5 seasons where he was the best performing regular season player.

Durant is shooting .648 TS%, which is insane. His best by a long shot, and his scoring numbers were already insane. Jordan's last MVP he was shooting .533 TS% (basically league average), and none of his other numbers were very impressive, either. He was still good on D. Jordan won that one on reputation alone.

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

Jordan probably won too many MVPs. I don't think he had 5 seasons where he was the best performing regular season player.

Durant is shooting .648 TS%, which is insane. His best by a long shot, and his scoring numbers were already insane. Jordan's last MVP he was shooting .533 TS% (basically league average), and none of his other numbers were very impressive, either. He was still good on D. Jordan won that one on reputation alone.

Well he probably should have won in 89 and 90, where he put up an ungodly shooting average of 53.2% for two years (with hand checking rules) 7.5 boards, 7.2 assists, arguably the best defensive guard in basketball, and had a shooting line of 53.2/34.7/85 and averaged 85% from the FT line.

Maybe the greatest back to back guard season of all time. Combined win shares that year? 38.8.

Pretty sure Hines just had an orgasm after reading that.

Also, right before he retired, for five years, Jordan's averages? 32.5 ppg/6.6 rpg/6.2 apg with a shooting slash of 52.5/32.1/84.4, averaged 8.6 FTA per game and was arguably the best defensive guard in the league. His win shares? 115.3 and a TS% of 59.5 and eFG% of 53.7. Holy Hell.

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

Jordan probably won too many MVPs. I don't think he had 5 seasons where he was the best performing regular season player.

Durant is shooting .648 TS%, which is insane. His best by a long shot, and his scoring numbers were already insane. Jordan's last MVP he was shooting .533 TS% (basically league average), and none of his other numbers were very impressive, either. He was still good on D. Jordan won that one on reputation alone.

Jordan led the league in win shares for NINE YEARS. I can make the case he didn't win enough MVPs.

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by zjcvols

Well he probably should have won in 89 and 90, where he put up an ungodly shooting average of 53.2% for two years (with hand checking rules) 7.5 boards, 7.2 assists, arguably the best defensive guard in basketball, and had a shooting line of 53.2/34.7/85 and averaged 85% from the FT line.

Dude, he was amazing, but I've got Magic both of those years...look at 89...Magic did 22, 13, 8 and outshot Jordan.

What do you like about the Win Shares stat? I like Wins Produced because I know the math behind it, and it's solid. Looking through past seasons' Win Shares winners I'm not seeing any that averaged less than 20 ppg, which raises a flag that it probably skews towards scoring.

I don't know the math behind Win Shares, but I do know Dirk was 1st in Win Shares in 05-06 and he was 16th in Wins Produced.

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

Dude, he was amazing, but I've got Magic both of those years...look at 89...Magic did 22, 13, 8 and outshot Jordan.

What do you like about the Win Shares stat? I like Wins Produced because I know the math behind it, and it's solid. Looking through past seasons' Win Shares winners I'm not seeing any that averaged less than 20 ppg, which raises a flag that it probably skews towards scoring.

I don't know the math behind Win Shares, but I do know Dirk was 1st in Win Shares in 05-06 and he was 16th in Wins Produced.

Calculating Win Shares | Basketball-Reference.com

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

Dude, he was amazing, but I've got Magic both of those years...look at 89...Magic did 22, 13, 8 and outshot Jordan.

What do you like about the Win Shares stat? I like Wins Produced because I know the math behind it, and it's solid. Looking through past seasons' Win Shares winners I'm not seeing any that averaged less than 20 ppg, which raises a flag that it probably skews towards scoring.

I don't know the math behind Win Shares, but I do know Dirk was 1st in Win Shares in 05-06 and he was 16th in Wins Produced.

I like it's ability to combine efficiency and factors in team play, because in basketball team play is highly important in how a player performs.

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by zjcvols

Calculating Win Shares | Basketball-Reference.com

I already looked there. It was too much to read...more than anything I'd like to see how they came up with their formula? Regression modeling? Can't find an answer.

I've seen the actual models Wins Produced was built on, including t-Stats, R^2, etc. I understand less of that stuff now than when I was in college, I just remember being completely convinced that Wins Produced was legit...to put R^2 and the other crap into layman's terms: the model explains 98% of winning. To put that into perspective, a model that explains 85% of anything (controlling for confidence intervals, and whatnot) is a pretty good model.

I feel like I said all of that just to sound smart. What a douche.

[zjcvols]

Originally Posted by n_huffhines

I already looked there. It was too much to read...more than anything I'd like to see how they came up with their formula? Regression modeling? Can't find an answer.

I've seen the actual models Wins Produced was built on, including t-Stats, R^2, etc. I understand less of that stuff now than when I was in college, I just remember being completely convinced that Wins Produced was legit...to put R^2 and the other crap into layman's terms: the model explains 98% of winning. To put that into perspective, a model that explains 85% of anything (controlling for confidence intervals, and whatnot) is a pretty good model.

I feel like I said all of that just to sound smart. What a douche.

As a history major, that second paragraph went completely over my head.

[TBrown]

Jodie Meeks > Kobe Bryant. Sorry no link

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by TBrown

Jodie Meeks > Kobe Bryant. Sorry no link

Not this year, but Kobe was horrible last year and he's playing awesome this year. Meeks was above average last year, and he's been bad this year. Not as bad as Kobe was last year, though.

[n_huffhines]

Love that Melo gets the headline for his 40 points:

Melo - 40 on 29 FGA + 9 FTA = 7 net points gained
Chandler - 14 on 6 FGA + 4 FTA = 6 net points gained

What Melo did is a difficult and impressive achievement, but as far as his contribution towards winning, he didn't do much more than Chandler in the scoring department.

[n_huffhines]

Melo and KG have no business being all-stars.

Should KG and Melo start in the All-Star game?