Clutch is Overrated!!!

[n_huffhines]

I've been trying to explain this for a while, but the data was limited, and I haven't been able to verbalize it as well as these guys.

Now that basketball-reference has made play-by-play data available for the last 10 years, we now have the data to learn about "clutch" play. They found* that "clutch" players tend to take more shots per minute in clutch situations, and shoot with less efficiency:

Of course when crunch time hits our clutch players have a tendency to shoot worse from the field. In fact, only Monta Ellis and Carmelo Anthony saw an improvement in their effective field goal shooting.

With an ability to look at clutch data closer it is very tempting to use it examine certain clutch players with a closer lens. And certainly it is also tempting to try and explain clutch time. Our players must be taking riskier shots at a quicker pace. Or maybe the defense really clamps down in clutch. In fact it’s pretty easy to believe that teams will change their strategy in clutch time and equally easy to believe they will not make optimal decisions.

What is important to do though is to temper this with how important it is. LeBron James was not clutch last season and neither was Dwyane Wade (whereas Carmelo Anthony and Monta Ellis were). That didn’t stop the Heat from winning lots of games and making it to the finals. We’re likely to overestimate the odds or importance of an event based on how easy it is to remember. Clutch shots are a great example of this. I’m not saying clutch shots aren’t fun, or memorable or even not important. I’m just saying perhaps we shouldn’t be so quick to define players based on actions that make up less than 5% of their offensive plays.

Clutch is overrated | The Wages of Wins Journal

*Clutch was defined as any shot taken with two minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime with five points or less between the teams. The players were observed solely for the 2010-11 season.

[Spartacavolus]

In the last 2 minutes, the D is the toughest and some non clutch players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off.

The D is usually focusing on them as well.

[n_huffhines]

Originally Posted by Spartacavolus

In the last 2 minutes, the D is the toughest and some non clutch players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off.

The D is usually focusing on them as well.

?

I'm reminded of earlier this season when Kobe dribbled the ball off his foot against the Jazz in the clutch.

[n_huffhines]

Also found this

[n_huffhines]

Here's Kobe again, failing to get a shot off in the clutch:



YouTube Link

[005]

Crap I wish I could remember where I found the article... it was more of an efficiency rating in the clutch, and counted the end of games even if they didn't take the shot and found an open man. Chris Paul's was just dominant.

[n_huffhines]

Chris Paul is insanely efficient in everything he does, so that doesn't surprise me. He's unreal. He's the most efficient scoring PG AND the most efficient distributor.

[005]

Oh yeah. He is the best pure point of this generation.

[n_huffhines]

He's in the same conversation with Magic and Stockton, IMO.

[005]

What conversation is kidd in, by the way?

Gotta be in some kinda good one.

[TennesseeFan07]

Originally Posted by Spartacavolus

In the last 2 minutes, the D is the toughest and some non clutch players wouldn't even be able to get a shot off.

The D is usually focusing on them as well.

This.

[Spartacavolus]

Originally Posted by nbakerld

?

I'm reminded of earlier this season when Kobe dribbled the ball off his foot against the Jazz in the clutch.

Right. Kobe's dribble off the foot means you wouldn't want to go to him at crunch time.

[Rasputin_Vol]

Originally Posted by nbakerld

I've been trying to explain this for a while, but the data was limited, and I haven't been able to verbalize it as well as these guys.

Now that basketball-reference has made play-by-play data available for the last 10 years, we now have the data to learn about "clutch" play. They found* that "clutch" players tend to take more shots per minute in clutch situations, and shoot with less efficiency:



Clutch is overrated | The Wages of Wins Journal

*Clutch was defined as any shot taken with two minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime with five points or less between the teams. The players were observed solely for the 2010-11 season.

If a field goal kicker misses a kick with 3 seconds left on the clock, he gets the blame for the loss. The other players that screwed up in the 59:57 before that get a pass. In other words, one play doesn't win or lose games.

[005]

Originally Posted by Rasputin_Vol

If a field goal kicker misses a kick with 3 seconds left on the clock, he gets the blame for the loss. The other players that screwed up in the 59:57 before that get a pass. In other words, one play doesn't win or lose games.

Lotta people fail to realize this.

[Sith Vol]

Originally Posted by Rasputin_Vol

If a field goal kicker misses a kick with 3 seconds left on the clock, he gets the blame for the loss. The other players that screwed up in the 59:57 before that get a pass. In other words, one play doesn't win or lose games.

So true.